eeuunikkeiexpat wrote: ↑
Sun Jul 18, 2021 9:42 pm
Another black eye for professional posters who said with confidence - Jadue y Lavin...
Maybe, on the other hand, I think if the votes would have been held in June when the surveys were done Jadue and Lavin might would have won.
Anyone who confidently declared the result has been caught out, but if they were just publishing results of polls I think they captured the mood at the time.
I think public opinion was shifting in the last days before the vote, when pollsters were not allowed to publish anything.
This from CADEM is well worth a look for anyone interested in this topic
https://www.cadem.cl/wp-content/uploads ... les-VF.pdf
On Page 10, it shows Sichel coming out on top in the TV debates, which would have shifted public opinion
On Page 11, the opinion polls shows Boric easily winning the last TV debate, which I totally agree with. Jadue spent half the interview arguing somewhat aggressively 3 or 4 times with a female TV presenter who asked him a question and kept coming back to this point over and over even when he got asked about other topics and she seemed to be getting upset. He looked more argumentative than Presidential, I think he is overly assertive. He was trying to claim the media was totally biased again him, but he was exaggerating this reality and people didn't fall for it. The CADEM data suggests Jadue took a hit as a result. I think Boric came across well in the whole campaign and never made any mistakes that I recollect.
On Page 13 and 14, it shows how opinions shifted from week to week in their surveys, including some which they weren't allowed to publish. Lavin's TV ads were mostly just jokey and not very substantial and his polling went down the week before the election as these rolled out. Meanwhile, I think Sichel came across quite well although I haven't followed him closely. At the start of the campaign, I think Lavin was simply well ahead on name recognition, but Sichel managed to catch up.
I'm delighted Jadue has gone. I think Jadue winning this primary would have been divisive and set the country onto the path of dividing into 2 factions like happened in the US in the last decade or so. In one of Jadue's TV ads he featured a person/character saying that we need to release "presos" to continue the fight (lucha).And I expect if communists can't win in this post social crisis environment when change is in the air and people are prepared to send a message to the establishment and unpopular right wing President, then they never will.