Chilean Politics

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admin
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Re: Chilean Politics

Post by admin » Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:32 am

Donnybrook2 wrote:
Sun Jul 18, 2021 10:50 pm
rasmataz wrote:
Sun Jul 18, 2021 9:39 pm
I wonder how many people voted for Boric simply to cancel out Jadue? I did but I have no intention of voting for Boric in November.
I think quite a lot did. It took away a lot of Lavin votes. But I think Sichel would have beaten Lavin anyway.
yea, there are not that many hard-core left voters, and I know no one that voted yesterday that votes in primaries (ever). everyone went with one purpose, to vote out Jadue.

Also voting in sichel that has a better chance than Lavin.

what is particularly fascinating, is all those people voted and hundreds of thousands of chileans were on vacation where they could not vote at all.
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Re: Chilean Politics

Post by admin » Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:33 am

breakdown of various election stats,

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... arias.html
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Re: Chilean Politics

Post by admin » Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:06 pm

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Re: Chilean Politics

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:22 pm

admin wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:06 pm
well, the markets seem to like it,

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/eco ... cado.shtml
I mean, Jadue lost. Of course the markets liked it.
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Donnybrook2
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Re: Chilean Politics

Post by Donnybrook2 » Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:45 pm

I looked up my voting table to see the breakdown. There were 347 votes in total, no blank or nulo.
Lavin 81
Briones 51
Sichel 96
Desbordes 12
Boric 94
Jadue 13

This is a table which has always been solidly behind Lavin. So I think those Boric votes were strategic and Sichel was a surprise.

Also note that there were 4 candidates on one side and only 2 on the other. So votes on one side were more diluted.

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Re: Chilean Politics

Post by admin » Mon Jul 19, 2021 1:08 pm

I read the sichel win as a rejection of the clueless tone deaf tradional right party politicians. he had a simple message, 'we don't need to burn the country down to change it'.
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Re: Chilean Politics

Post by 41southchile » Mon Jul 19, 2021 1:52 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:22 pm
admin wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:06 pm
well, the markets seem to like it,

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/eco ... cado.shtml
I mean, Jadue lost. Of course the markets liked it.
Very muted though with all that is going on offshore. Commodities taking a big hit, fears over an actual recovery.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: Chilean Politics

Post by 41southchile » Mon Jul 19, 2021 1:54 pm

A good result.
Here’s hoping Sichel Can do it.
Useless fact , he is A Leo my wife says , and was born the day after me, lol.
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Re: Chilean Politics

Post by Britkid » Mon Jul 19, 2021 1:55 pm

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Sun Jul 18, 2021 9:42 pm
Another black eye for professional posters who said with confidence - Jadue y Lavin...
Maybe, on the other hand, I think if the votes would have been held in June when the surveys were done Jadue and Lavin might would have won.

Anyone who confidently declared the result has been caught out, but if they were just publishing results of polls I think they captured the mood at the time.

I think public opinion was shifting in the last days before the vote, when pollsters were not allowed to publish anything.

This from CADEM is well worth a look for anyone interested in this topic
https://www.cadem.cl/wp-content/uploads ... les-VF.pdf

On Page 10, it shows Sichel coming out on top in the TV debates, which would have shifted public opinion

On Page 11, the opinion polls shows Boric easily winning the last TV debate, which I totally agree with. Jadue spent half the interview arguing somewhat aggressively 3 or 4 times with a female TV presenter who asked him a question and kept coming back to this point over and over even when he got asked about other topics and she seemed to be getting upset. He looked more argumentative than Presidential, I think he is overly assertive. He was trying to claim the media was totally biased again him, but he was exaggerating this reality and people didn't fall for it. The CADEM data suggests Jadue took a hit as a result. I think Boric came across well in the whole campaign and never made any mistakes that I recollect.

On Page 13 and 14, it shows how opinions shifted from week to week in their surveys, including some which they weren't allowed to publish. Lavin's TV ads were mostly just jokey and not very substantial and his polling went down the week before the election as these rolled out. Meanwhile, I think Sichel came across quite well although I haven't followed him closely. At the start of the campaign, I think Lavin was simply well ahead on name recognition, but Sichel managed to catch up.

I'm delighted Jadue has gone. I think Jadue winning this primary would have been divisive and set the country onto the path of dividing into 2 factions like happened in the US in the last decade or so. In one of Jadue's TV ads he featured a person/character saying that we need to release "presos" to continue the fight (lucha).And I expect if communists can't win in this post social crisis environment when change is in the air and people are prepared to send a message to the establishment and unpopular right wing President, then they never will.

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Re: Chilean Politics

Post by rasmataz » Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:21 pm

It will be interesting to see how the breakdown of votes went in the Metropolitan Region. I think I heard on tv last night that Boric got more votes in Nuñoa than Lavin did, which would confirm that they voted that way only to get rid of Jadue. I voted for Boric for that reason too but don't expect me to vote for Boric in Nov. because that is not going to happen.

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Re: Chilean Politics

Post by rasmataz » Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:23 pm

Also, if Boric decides to fold in Jadue into his campaign, he will sink faster then the Titanic.

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Re: Chilean Politics

Post by Britkid » Mon Jul 19, 2021 6:46 pm

For the results by comuna, go to here: servelelecciones.cl and click on "en Chile" and you can then show results by regions and even individual comunas. However you don't see wild differences from one region to the next.

Briones results in the RM are closely tied to how rich the area is, he was only competitive in rich areas.

Sichel beat Lavin in every place I checked, even centro and Las Condes where he has been mayor.

Boric beat Jadue in pretty much every region and major metroplitan comuna. Jadue did beat Boric 55%-45% in Recoleta, where he has been mayor.

Boric has a total of 1.058.027 and a winning margin of 365.165.
He got 538.751 votes in the metropolitan region. If we add together say Vitactura, Providencia and Las Condes that was under 10% of the votes he got in RM, under 5% of his votes nationally. In Providencia he got more votes than any Chile Vamos candidate. In Vitactura and Las Condes both Sichel and Lavin got more.
He got 519.726 votes in regions (i.e. all but RM).

___________________

Not convinced it will be a huge problem for Boric if he has Jadue standing next to him at events or in a key position in his team. I hope he doesn't though. The sense I get from Jadue is that he wanted to be the boss. I don't think he really wants to take orders from Boric and if he is in the inner circle I think he will be disruptive and I think if Boric is smart he will try and keep a certain distance. They are in different parties and have a fairly loose alliance I think?

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