Election Constitution 2021

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Jamers41
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by Jamers41 » Sun May 16, 2021 9:30 pm

admin wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 9:02 pm
yea, the far left seems to have little traction right now, even in traditional left strongholds; but still early.
I'm seeing a lot of candidates with high %s as independents (at least in name) from "La Lista del Pueblo". Since candidates and/or lists provide "propuestas" (more or less like governmental or ideological statements) to Servel, I looked up some of the statements provided by different independent candidates in my district. I would say they are usually just as left as any of them, so I don't know if I would make that sort of declaration just yet.

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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by Britkid » Sun May 16, 2021 9:37 pm

This might be a good place to keep track of the results

https://www.servelelecciones.cl/

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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by admin » Sun May 16, 2021 9:40 pm

yea, left is ahead in valpo and metro regional governors.
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tiagoabner
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by tiagoabner » Sun May 16, 2021 9:54 pm

I was going to move out of Chile earlier this year, but things have changed and I may be here to stay. I didn't vote, as I'm not eligible yet, but I ended up doing some research on the candidates to get myself familiar with the local politics. This is something that I've been postponing for way too long, and I might as well start now.

The candidate that I liked most is the one that's way ahead for district 10. Even though she claims to be independent, she's more of a center-left candidate. There's a large push for decentralization, modernization and a clear role for government running education, pensions, healthcare and housing. I kind of like it, especially since she has planned around how to pay for it all. I really can't take any candidate seriously if they aren't capable of thinking about how we're going to pay for their unicorn.
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Space Cat
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by Space Cat » Sun May 16, 2021 10:00 pm

Here's one of the best places to watch results, with nice per-commune stats:
https://2021.decidechile.cl/

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Space Cat
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by Space Cat » Sun May 16, 2021 10:24 pm

I think with about 20% counted, it's more or less set in stone, plus-minus one seat here or there. The highlights I see:

1. The right-wing coalition (Vamos Por Chile) is losing hard. They spent insane budgets on their campaigns and still did not get to the 33% they need to block the stuff they don't like from the new constitution. Heck, they didn't even get to 25%. They will have to collaborate with centrist independents.

2. The new left (Apruebo Dignidad) surpassed the old left (Lista Del Apruebo) by allying with the Chilean communist party. Revolución Democrática (Bernie-like libertarian socialists) has become a serious political player, though they still lack in mayors compared to the old parties. The old left basically has only Partido Socialista standing strong, other parties from that list are continuing to shrink compared to the previous decades.

3. Despite all of this, the voters are quite tired of politicians, so independent lists had a huge success that nobody predicted. I saw some predictions where independents were winning 3-5 seats, but they ended up with more than 40. Of course, independents vary in their views, but at least Lista Del Pueblo and Independientes Por La Nueva Constitución seem to be center-left, with some vague socially-oriented liberalism in their manifests.

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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by Britkid » Mon May 17, 2021 12:45 am

I was right basically - shift to the left and decline of Chile Vamos.

Some striking results for Chile Vamos
- the mayor of Maipu, Cathy Barriga, currently holding the office, losing by a huge margin.

- the major of Santiago, who won easily last time, in a neck and neck race with a communist

- the Chile Vamos candidate for RM governor, CATALINA PAROT DONOSO, will finish 3rd or maybe even 4th and perhaps well behind CLAUDIO ORREGO LARRAIN (PDC) and KARINA LORETTA OLIVA PEREZ (Frente Amplio).

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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by BookReader » Mon May 17, 2021 6:03 am

So, a center-left liberalism constitution will be written?

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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by admin » Mon May 17, 2021 9:22 am

yea, I don't find that all that surprising, and about what I was hoping for.

sufficient center left to keep this from turning in to some sort of libertarian circle jerk, but sufficient center right leaning candidates to keep the unicorns corralled and down to earth.

still waiting to see a full breakdown of the ideological split and candidates.

There is still no guarantee that this produces a constitution. 155 people agreeing on text?

Let's see if they can agree on lunch first.

even then, it could still be rejected at the approval election when it is done. a couple billion dollars later we are back to where we started, and 75% of the country still has not read either the current constitution nor the proposed draft constitution.

never mind, the next 30+ years spent trying to patch all the holes in whatever they write.

For all the bullshit propaganda pumped out about the wonders of the U.S. constitution as a document to school kids, look at a side by side comparison of all the revisions made to it. I think the "We the people" part is still original. The rest has had more than a few coats of white wash over the years; much of it happened in the first 50 years or so.
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gringalais
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by gringalais » Mon May 17, 2021 10:47 am

I'm not sure how much of a surprise reality show Barbie (Cathy Barriga) losing was, with all the scandals she has had!

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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by admin » Mon May 17, 2021 10:48 am

The other thing to keep in mind, is the left has never been really united about anything in Chile. Hell, the only thing they have ever been kind of united about was opposition to the dictorship, and the constitution was just one of the last "dictatorship things" they had to work with.

all it will take is for the left to do what they always do, fight amongst themselves, for the center right canidates to run the table, even as a minority with less than 1/3 of the vote. The left has always had tendency to turn everything in to unicorn races and fail to form a unified agenda. Thus, the million and one parties, and shell games with party names.

The number of independents that got elected reflect that rejection of the traditional parties to write the constitution.
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by Britkid » Mon May 17, 2021 11:33 am

gringalais wrote:
Mon May 17, 2021 10:47 am
I'm not sure how much of a surprise reality show Barbie (Cathy Barriga) losing was, with all the scandals she has had!
It´s the margin of this defeat that´s interesting I think. The winner got more than double her vote.

Also, CATALINA PAROT DONOSO of Chile Vamos did come in 4th for RM gobernor, behind Nathalie Joignant an eco/water activist in 3rd place. That is a striking result. (Pablo Maltes, Pamela Jiles husband, was back in 5th.)

In Talagante the socialist major got 65%, while Chile Vamos was third out of three in 15%, behind an independent candidate NANCY STOWHAS RODRIGUEZ that didn´t look that serious of a candidate to me.

Both Nancy Stowhas and Nathalie Joignant had dysfunctional websites and no real public presence and didn´t even seem like credible candidates. Nathalie Joignant wasn´t even invited to the TV debates that I saw. And yet still beat the main right wing candidates.

The Chile Vamos major of Santiago, who won easily last time around, has lost to a communist.

The question is is this a big f*** you to Piñera (which might be partly recovered after he leaves), or a rejection of the current establishment, or is it Chile moving decisively from right to left.

It seems to me all of the above.

Even assuming we get a left President and more lefty senators by the end of the year (I think yes), I guess we won´t know for sure whether Chile has really become a more left wing country until the 2025 elections.

That´s when we´ll find out whether that is truly the case (I think yes) or whether in fact this was just a rejection of the current establishment by apolitical anti Piñera voters (that don´t think in terms of left/right) that might be open to going back to the right after seeing a new leader.

Personally, I think the right in its current form, with its current policies, is done for. Either they reform on both social and economic issues or Chile Vamos (or a similar coalition including at least some of the same parties) will still be doing badly in 2025.

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