Election Constitution 2021

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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by admin » Sat May 15, 2021 7:52 pm

Here is a fairly good coverage of what is going on, in the event someone does not know:
https://www.cfr.org/blog/chiles-constit ... -inclusion
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by admin » Sat May 15, 2021 8:01 pm

so I am not even sure how this math might work out, but it might be something like this:

women have a reserve, and indigenous have a reserve.

so, with a super low turn-out, typically favors the right, we could end-up with massive number of delegates that in fact received little to no votes, being elected to write the constitution.
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by admin » Sat May 15, 2021 9:19 pm

they are reporting 19% of eligible voters have voted

around 40% of eligible voters in los condes.

so, so far does appear to be exactly what it appears. richer, more right leaning areas are voting in larger numbers.
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by admin » Sat May 15, 2021 9:23 pm

more fun , a vocal de mesa was arrested smoking a jiont in a bathroom at a polling place,

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... cion.shtml

guess you got to do something during a slow voting day.
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by admin » Sat May 15, 2021 9:25 pm

2,833,000 votes cast, the government was projecting something over 7 million would likely vote.

that is not a lot left.
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by tiagoabner » Sat May 15, 2021 10:33 pm

admin wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 9:25 pm
that is not a lot left.
I see what you did there. :lol:

Seriously, though. It's perfectly possible that the constituent assembly will be center right, which means we may get a similar constitution to what we have. I only hope the extreme left doesn't try to burn the country again if/when that happens.
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by fraggle092 » Sun May 16, 2021 12:15 am

This morning's statement by Pamela Jiles marked a new low. Filthy gutter language, vote solicitation (in favour of her husband, no less), insults and threats to destroy what's left of the Pension system all in less than 30 seconds live on TV. Looking on the bright side, that little speech only lessens her chances of presidential candidacy, even the most committed lefties have some vestiges of decency.
'
Del voto de Piñera al show de Jiles cinco episodios que marcan las votaciones hasta ahora - La Tercera.png
.
https://www.latercera.com/la-tercera-pm ... Q2GKVUXC4/
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by admin » Sun May 16, 2021 7:48 am

so to match participation in the october vote, about 4.5 million people need to vote today.

I have seen a few theories about the low turn-out. the most common one seems to be people did not trust the storage of the votes over night. I doubt that.

The rich neighborhoods of santiago were voting at a rate of 36 to 41%, mas o menos; poorer neighborhoods at around 15% across the country.

I am also curious if even among the poorer parts of the country, was that voter enthusiasm from the right in those 15%?

Just because an area is poor, does not mean there are no right voters. I have seen plenty of Pinochet photos hanging on people's walls in poor neighborhoods.

In fact those neighborhoods can have extremely high numbers of older and christian conservatives, both catholic and evangelistic, that will vote right and are fairly well displined. sunday after their pastors give them a good talking too, could decide how this election breaks. They are worried about the left messing with religious freedoms, but also things like abortion are a line in the sand for them, that the far left crowd is trying to push through.

Is the left voter mostly MIA or DOA?

I don't think today is going to change that much.
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by tiagoabner » Sun May 16, 2021 8:59 am

admin wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 9:19 pm
they are reporting 19% of eligible voters have voted

around 40% of eligible voters in los condes.

so, so far does appear to be exactly what it appears. richer, more right leaning areas are voting in larger numbers.
Las Condes, Lo Barnechea, and Vitacura were the three "comunas" with more people voting yesterday. These were also some of the comunas where the "rechazo" had better results.

https://www.t13.cl/noticia/elecciones-2 ... 15-05-2021
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by admin » Sun May 16, 2021 11:18 am

servel seems to think there are 415,000 foreigners eligible to vote,

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... mina.shtml

I find the numbers highly suspect,
También tienen derecho a voto en tierra chilena 13.979 españoles, 10.260 venezolanos, 10.009 chinos, 9.047 estadounidenses y 8.778 brasileños, conforme a los datos con fecha enero de 2021.
I don't think those numbers include people that have received full citizenship; and, even not including them, I find it hard to believe there is only 9.047 U.S. citizens with 5 years of residency.

If that was the case, I would not have much by way of a business. The population is relatively small, but not that small. Which makes me question those other numbers.
Al considerar las cifras de enero (345.770 con derecho a voto en nuestro país), los peruanos lideran con más de 149.312 ciudadanos que pueden acudir a las urnas.

A ellos le siguen los colombianos (49.745), bolivianos (47.926), argentinos (29.714) y ecuatorianos (17.000).
Really, only 29.714 Argentinians? Bolivians 47.926? Hundreds of years of people crossing the boarder, and that is all the expats, dual citizens, etc from those countries living here?
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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by Britkid » Sun May 16, 2021 12:14 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 12:15 am
This morning's statement by Pamela Jiles marked a new low. Filthy gutter language, vote solicitation (in favour of her husband, no less), insults and threats to destroy what's left of the Pension system all in less than 30 seconds live on TV.
Did you notice how she referred to her own husband my his full name, without mentioning that it´s her husband. That was a bit wierd, and kind of sneaky. I suppose a lot of people know but not everyone will.

She is exactly the kind of dangerous demagogue that has been sweeping to power across the world since 2016. Even though her politics (to the extent that she has any) aren´t the same, aspects of her are reminiscent of the likes of Bolsanaro, Trump and Boris Johnson that are more about emotional appeal to the masses and a screw you to the establishment rather than good policies. She´s dangerous.

To some of the other discussion, I haven´t seen any political posts on my facebook from anyone I know in the last days or weeks, very different to October 2019. Also, I think every single conversation that I have had with anyone in the last days and weeks running into the election has been started by me and has been very short, sometimes with the other person saying all polticians are the same or having no knowledge or plans to vote for anyone.

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Re: Election Constitution 2021

Post by admin » Sun May 16, 2021 2:02 pm

voted. in and out in 10 mins, including learning how to do origami to fold the ballot.

pretty empty, and we went fairly late at 12:30. only like one person in front of me, one as I was leaving; but it was like that during the last election too.
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