The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

General topics related to Living in Chile
Irishman
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:23 am
Location: Niebla

Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by Irishman » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:36 pm

IMG_8574.JPG
Passing Kunstmann brewery in Valdivia this am, i noticed them erecting a very tall fence. I would have thought the predicted vote result would have allayed any potential violence?

mem
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 931
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:18 am

Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by mem » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:38 pm

Britkid wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:30 pm
Some of you may be misinterpreting the numbers:

What the CADEM study is saying is that:

Of those they surveyed who voted for Guillier in 2017 and voted in the referendum, 99% of those voted Apruebo. 100% adds up to the total of people that voted for Guillier and voted in this referendum.

Of those who identify as left wing, and also voted in this referendum, 95% voted for Apruebo.

Neither stat tells us anything about how many right wing people voted for apruebo.

Some of the wording from biobio and mem is imperfect since it might wrongly lead us to believe that they are saying "of those that voted for apruebo, x% are left". They are NOT saying that, at least not in the stats quoted to this forum. You could probably work that out from the study roughly if you wanted to.

I generally find it better to go to the CADEM website where they make the full studies publically available in netrual language avoiding any media spin, media mistakes, and also there is often other interesting info in there not in the media report.

https://www.cadem.cl/wp-content/uploads ... ito-VF.pdf

If you look at the CADEM study there was strong support across class and age boundaries, a bit more than I would have guessed (assuming this study of under 1,000 people is truly representative).

Of people that identify as right wing, 32% voted apruebo (vs 95% for left wing).
That would be very encouraging and I hope I am interpreting that incorrectly

It's possible that many rechazo voters stayed home becasue of risks challenges voting and figured it was a lost cause anyway also assuming they are mostly right. It also surprised me how many nonresident voters there must be

I am looking at it as all that matters is who votes and if there is a large imbalance then that indicates a big change from a few years ago.

User avatar
eeuunikkeiexpat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 8511
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 1:38 am
Location: Somewhere south of Valpo

Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:43 pm

Irishman wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:36 pm
IMG_8574.JPGPassing Kunstmann brewery in Valdivia this am, i noticed them erecting a very tall fence. I would have thought the predicted vote result would have allayed any potential violence?

I'm watching the following dates from the "apruebo" calendar.

Screen Shot 2020-10-26 at 2.39.32 PM.jpg

Will the violence be the same, less or perhaps more as the 80/20 landslide might mean the pacos are less likely to engage violent protestors as they've lost their mandate.
Que será, será.

Britkid
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2320
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:59 pm
Location: Talagante area, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by Britkid » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:45 pm

OK, what the heck, realized it would only take me 5 minutes to work it out

Of those that were surveyed, 28% identify as left, 10% as centre, 20% as right, and 42% as independent

Of the people that identify as left 95% voted for Apruebo, Centre 75%, Right 32%, Independent 87%.

Multiply those two numbers together and you get
26.6% of surveyed said they were left and voted apruebo (28% x 95%)
7.5% of surveyed said they were centre and voted apruebo (10% x 75%)
6.4% of surveyed said they were right and voted apruebo (20% x 32%)
36.5% of surveyed said that they were independent and voted apruebo (42% x 87%)

Total of that is 77% which is the CADEM overall % for apruebo

We can them normalize that to 100% which will finally give up the answer to the question of those who voted for apruebo, how many of them are left/right etc:

35% identify as left
10% centre
8% right
47% independent

So in conclusion it isn't correct to say that most of the apruebo votes come from people that self identify as left wing, but neither is it really correct to say that right wing voters made a big contribution. Majority of apruebo voters neither identify as left or right.

User avatar
eeuunikkeiexpat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 8511
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 1:38 am
Location: Somewhere south of Valpo

Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:52 pm

mem wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:38 pm
It also surprised me how many nonresident voters there must be.
Remember, that is a new rule change as prior to the last Prez election, only those actually resident in Chile could vote.
Que será, será.

mem
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 931
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:18 am

Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by mem » Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:51 pm

Britkid wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:45 pm
OK, what the heck, realized it would only take me 5 minutes to work it out

Of those that were surveyed, 28% identify as left, 10% as centre, 20% as right, and 42% as independent

Of the people that identify as left 95% voted for Apruebo, Centre 75%, Right 32%, Independent 87%.

Multiply those two numbers together and you get
26.6% of surveyed said they were left and voted apruebo (28% x 95%)
7.5% of surveyed said they were centre and voted apruebo (10% x 75%)
6.4% of surveyed said they were right and voted apruebo (20% x 32%)
36.5% of surveyed said that they were independent and voted apruebo (42% x 87%)

Total of that is 77% which is the CADEM overall % for apruebo

We can them normalize that to 100% which will finally give up the answer to the question of those who voted for apruebo, how many of them are left/right etc:

35% identify as left
10% centre
8% right
47% independent

So in conclusion it isn't correct to say that most of the apruebo votes come from people that self identify as left wing, but neither is it really correct to say that right wing voters made a big contribution. Majority of apruebo voters neither identify as left or right.
Thanks BK - Appreciate that breakdown

mem
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 931
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:18 am

Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by mem » Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:52 pm

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:52 pm
mem wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:38 pm
It also surprised me how many nonresident voters there must be.
Remember, that is a new rule change as prior to the last Prez election, only those actually resident in Chile could vote.
Ah gotcha...may end up being quite the wildcard with these non-resident numbers

Britkid
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2320
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:59 pm
Location: Talagante area, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by Britkid » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:06 pm

Fraggle, re discussion on last page, I dont really have the time to get into all of that, or even the knowledge on some of the things you mention to say anything worthwhile. I will say that in the experience of the UK increasing the minimum wage is broadly agreed by both left and right to have not been damaging to the economy or unemployment.

When a company is forced to increase minimum wage even by a big amount all at once (say 15%) first of all that only affects a portion of their workforce, so they might only say a 7% increase to average wages. Wages only make up a portion of total costs so you might only see a 2% increase to total costs. And then all their (national) competitors also see the same increase.

People competing internationally are hit more, but businesses that can compete internationally may tend to employ less minimum wage people...?

You might get some improvement in productivity as well. The extra wages may improve people's motivation a bit or cause them to have less financial problems so less distracted at work, or less need to tire themselves out working a second job.

User avatar
fraggle092
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2245
Joined: Fri Mar 28, 2008 6:35 pm
Location: In Chile

Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by fraggle092 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:09 pm

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:34 pm
fraggle092 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:39 pm
Very good! Anyone know who the comrade to the left of Comandante Claudia is?
Felipe Camiroaga in his famous Festival de Viña preview personage.
Ah, the deceased farandulero. Thanks.
Bienvenidos a Chaqueteo City.

Après moi, le déluge

User avatar
fraggle092
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2245
Joined: Fri Mar 28, 2008 6:35 pm
Location: In Chile

Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by fraggle092 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:32 pm

Britkid wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:06 pm
You might get some improvement in productivity as well. The extra wages may improve people's motivation a bit or cause them to have less financial problems so less distracted at work, or less need to tire themselves out working a second job.
"Productivity" has always been a Chilean national joke, and more seriously is often considered to be synonymous with exploitation.
Employees usually don't "reward" employers for providing better pay or conditions by working harder, they just ask for more.

Remember Maersk.
Bienvenidos a Chaqueteo City.

Après moi, le déluge

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 24143
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by admin » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:18 pm

I have been giggling to myself all day as the media, politicians, economists, and just chile in general, is falling all over themselves to try and figure out what this means as the 'holy shit, what did we do' phase starts setting in to the country.

yea, that. That is why I voted against writing a new constution.

Somehow, I just knew this was going to happen when this all started. The country was going to jump off the cliff, then seriously start debating the implications. It is like the Wile E. Coyote chasing the roadrunner.

I think it is my finally honed chilean seventh sense. The six sense is used for detecting 'something is screwed up'. The seven sense is used for detecting all the possible ways something could get even more screwed up, and hopefully avoid them all.

well, the threads related to this topic should be good for another 10,000 pages a year on the forum, over the next 5 to 10 years.

right now, not remotely the biggest problem I got. Not even biggest problem Chile or the World has. Hell, probably not even most important election going on with some sort of real impact on the future of chile.

probably good idea to stock up on popcorn for watching the country try to sort this out. It should be at least entertaining.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 24143
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by admin » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:51 pm

Not just Chileans.

The credit rating agencies seem to be experiencing a 'holy shit, what does this mean' moment too.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p ... 55614.html

but they seem relatively positive, and the conclusion of that article sort of sums it up, "chile is in a credit rating position to withstand a lot of political noise" (my translation).

The markets sold off today, but not even as much as the global markets did. The u.s. elections and runaway covid cases in the northern hemisphere were driving that. I was actually expecting a whole lot more reaction, but the "got bigger problems" problem probably distracted investors from punishing chile.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

Post Reply