The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

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El Presidente
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Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by El Presidente » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:16 am

fraggle092 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:02 am
A Tweet from Big Brother:
.
Felicitaciones.png
All tongue in cheek of course :lol:
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Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by admin » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:57 am

well markets seem to be taking it in stride. ipsa is down a bit but hardly a crash as some predicted. probably more tuned in to what is hoing on in the glibal markets and the u.s. stimulus talks than the constutional vote.
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fraggle092
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Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by fraggle092 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:32 pm

All the ideas I am replying to seem to be based on the notion that the political impellers of these constitutional changes are decent people who genuinely desire a better, fairer Chile. Some may be, but even a superficial acquaintance with the Chilean political scene should raise some doubts.
Britkid wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:34 am
Venezuela was a corrupt petro state that collapsed due to corruption and the price of oil falling. It's a weak comparison to the current situation in Chile.

Bit more to it than that. Like Chavez's systematic accretion of power, the systematic wrecking of private business, the replacement of key workers and bureaucrats by sympathizers, the misuse of money and resources to gain influence internationally, currency debasement, the appearance of cuasi-military collectivos who act outside the law, the establishment of the SEBIN detention and torture centres, mass corruption and drug trafficking at the highest levels of government.

This took place during the boom years of the Venezuelan economy, and the majority silently ignored it as long as their bread was being buttered.


If Chile wants higher pensions, better education and health care, i.e. a larger government, then it means more taxes. The logical solution is a moderate increase to middle class taxes, and a high increase to upper class taxes.

Taxation aimed at just one segment of society is unhealthy and encourages yet more parasitism!. (And class division.) This is a non-starter anyway as they want paradise on the cheap. Try convincing Chileans to fork out money! After all the excuse for the 18-O riots was a minuscule Metro fare rise. These demands for quality this and that are expected to come about by metiendo mano en el bolsillo de los ricos.
Do you really think that tax increases are acceptable during a period of increasing unemployment and inflation? Unless this proposal just means taxing the "rich" which by the current way of thinking seems to be "everyone else except me".


One other possible magic short cut that might work is to do well out of the copper, lithium etc etc, and taking care to make sure that all these funds go to the state.

What, like CODELCO you mean?. An indebted state company plagued by scandal, corruption and nepotism and one that has consistently underperformed. Or ENAP, ditto?

If neither of those works, then I don't see how things can change that much.

A few things might be fixed without needing much more money from the government, minimum wage and water rights perhaps.
Raising the Minimum Wage when many businesses face closure, and are laying people off because they cannot afford to pay them?
Water rights. Agricultural land becomes worthless without water. Who is going to invest in Agriculture when longterm water rights are not guaranteed Or are at the disposition of a crooked bureaucrat??


Luckily Chile is in a stronger position than some countries with debt at a smaller % of GDP. Thanks are owed to those who managed the fiscal situation responsibly and left some breathing room. I expect Chile#s debt to GDP ratio will increase this decade as they try to manage the society's demands for more free stuff against the inevitable opposition to big tax increases.
Not financially literate, but Chile's recent credit downgrade, greatly increased public debt, capital flight, and inflation are not encouraging signs. When was the last big private sector initiative by either Chilean or foreign enterprise?
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Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by fraggle092 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:39 pm

El Presidente wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:16 am
All tongue in cheek of course :lol:
Very good! Anyone know who the comrade to the left of Comandante Claudia is?
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Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by mem » Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:49 pm

90+% that voted apruebo identify as 'Left' and voted for Guilleier in 2017.

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... ntes.shtml

I didnt think there was such a large disparity between left and right in Chile. Of the voters on Sunday it would appear almost 80% selfidentify as left :|

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Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:01 pm

Rechazo won in Venezuela and in the UAE as well, and it tied in South Africa. This doesn't matter, obviously, but it's an interesting trivia point.
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Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by 41southchile » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:45 pm

mem wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:49 pm
90+% that voted apruebo identify as 'Left' and voted for Guilleier in 2017.

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... ntes.shtml

I didnt think there was such a large disparity between left and right in Chile. Of the voters on Sunday it would appear almost 80% selfidentify as left :|
Did I read here or from someone else, but only a third of the right voted? Not sure . As for only 50 percent of eligible voters voting, you would have though it may have been higher, guess covid kept away a few too. Still not an overwhelming majority of citizens.
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Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by 41southchile » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:53 pm

admin wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:57 am
well markets seem to be taking it in stride. ipsa is down a bit but hardly a crash as some predicted. probably more tuned in to what is hoing on in the glibal markets and the u.s. stimulus talks than the constutional vote.
Dollar has actually gone down to 775 too
You right, about global situation.
"Chile ? What ?" Is probably most investors immediate reaction with a casual shrug of the shoulders.
With everything else going on in U.S/China/Europe. Chile doesn't really feature on most investors radar especially this final week in U.S election.
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Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by admin » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:07 pm

mem wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:49 pm
90+% that voted apruebo identify as 'Left' and voted for Guilleier in 2017.

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... ntes.shtml

I didnt think there was such a large disparity between left and right in Chile. Of the voters on Sunday it would appear almost 80% selfidentify as left :|
statistically impossible. bio bio blowing smoke up
people's asses.

There is no way you get those numbers without suprisingly strong support from the right leaning nieghborhoods.

the approve did suprisingly well in places like los condes and other "right" wing districts.
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Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:13 pm

mem wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:49 pm
90+% that voted apruebo identify as 'Left' and voted for Guilleier in 2017.

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... ntes.shtml

I didnt think there was such a large disparity between left and right in Chile. Of the voters on Sunday it would appear almost 80% selfidentify as left :|
Guillier had 1,497,118 votes on the first round of the previous election, and 3,159,902 on the second round. Apruebo won with 5,885,721 votes. Assuming 100% of Guillier voters voted Apruebo, they would be 53.69% of all voters for Apruebo. Hence, Apruebo also had a few million votes from those that didn't vote for Guillier.
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Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by Britkid » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:30 pm

Some of you may be misinterpreting the numbers:

What the CADEM study is saying is that:

Of those they surveyed who voted for Guillier in 2017 and voted in the referendum, 99% of those voted Apruebo. 100% adds up to the total of people that voted for Guillier and voted in this referendum.

Of those who identify as left wing, and also voted in this referendum, 95% voted for Apruebo.

Neither stat tells us anything about how many right wing people voted for apruebo.

Some of the wording from biobio and mem is imperfect since it might wrongly lead us to believe that they are saying "of those that voted for apruebo, x% are left". They are NOT saying that, at least not in the stats quoted to this forum. You could probably work that out from the study roughly if you wanted to.

I generally find it better to go to the CADEM website where they make the full studies publically available in netrual language avoiding any media spin, media mistakes, and also there is often other interesting info in there not in the media report.

https://www.cadem.cl/wp-content/uploads ... ito-VF.pdf

If you look at the CADEM study there was strong support across class and age boundaries, a bit more than I would have guessed (assuming this study of under 1,000 people is truly representative).

Of people that identify as right wing, 32% voted apruebo (vs 95% for left wing).

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Re: The Vote to Write a New Constution for Chile

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:34 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:39 pm
El Presidente wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:16 am
All tongue in cheek of course :lol:
Very good! Anyone know who the comrade to the left of Comandante Claudia is?
Felipe Camiroaga in his famous Festival de Viña preview personage.
Que será, será.

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