The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

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fraggle092
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:47 am

41southchile wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:45 am
You know you are on a half ass country when that goes for the vandals and thief's too, guess they got to have some time out from such a grueling schedule and have some downtime .
Yeah, civil unrest usually happens either just before, or just after the summer break.
Some people are already taking earthquake-type precautions, (stocking up on food, bottled water, flashlights etc.)
Without being alarmist, its not a bad idea to get prepared.
Even under normal circumstances, Chileans hate March.
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marzo.jpg
marzo.jpg (4.72 KiB) Viewed 1273 times
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SFU4Pe0Jek
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Grande el Volcán,eh?
Este que se ve allí es Lava.
Viene p'acá.
Bienvenidos a Chaqueteo City.

Après moi, le déluge

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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Mon Feb 17, 2020 2:36 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:47 am
41southchile wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:45 am
You know you are on a half ass country when that goes for the vandals and thief's too, guess they got to have some time out from such a grueling schedule and have some downtime .
Yeah, civil unrest usually happens either just before, or just after the summer break.
Some people are already taking earthquake-type precautions, (stocking up on food, bottled water, flashlights etc.)
Without being alarmist, its not a bad idea to get prepared.
Even under normal circumstances, Chileans hate March.
.
marzo.jpg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SFU4Pe0Jek
.
Grande el Volcán,eh?
Este que se ve allí es Lava.
Viene p'acá.
Dang, and I just thought march was the quiet month in the south, when all the terroristas (tourist) go back to Santiago. Hopefully this year the tourist will take the real terroristas back to Santiago with them. :lol: :shock:
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Duganist
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by Duganist » Mon Feb 17, 2020 2:53 pm

Hey everyone, new to the forum, long-time lurker, Start-up Chile Alum, paid a lot of payroll tax funding a Bitcoin derivatives protocol developed in the 5th region, married to a Chilena, starting a derivatives brokerage.

Big capitalist. Also have nuanced political views.

New constitution != Left - necessarily.

The Military can get away with a lot, the only real checks are the US (which is sympathetic/silent), and the Rome Treaty (which Chile could well begin extricating itself from under a Kast presidency if we go in that direction).

The people who don't have property, and who have been scammed out of an education by embezzling charter public school managers, don't have much experience with benefitting from property rights, hence they're in a kamikaze dance of death and have nothing to lose, and theoretically, a lot to gain. It's maybe not constructive to call them simian when we are all, in fact, descended from primates.

Chile's education bamboozle leads to the favored sons of Las Condes being able to get preferential access to credit and we have the real estate bubble like where I live on the coast, there's a fantasy of creating a tech economy to fill out jobs here, but it's easier said than done. Huge supply overhang, people don't know how to invest globally. Most people don't know that you can buy Bitcoin, sell swaps against it, and get a 20-35% annualized yield with little credit risk (some BTC deposited to the exchange to margin the position), or 10-20% with futures roll-yield. People just invest in real estate and get caught up in managing renters or left holding a bag, while RE developers can realize a very high return on equity leveraging the vertical development off of a patch of sand. Pretty weird!

We don't have to throw out the economic development baby with the fashy bathwater, but this bathwater is gross y'all and we need to change it, but of course, protect the bebe. Economic development in Chile (or the US for that matter) has not truly been in accordance with the Free Market principles of Hayek. Guzman wrote the current constitution based on three influences, Hayek, Novak's "The Spirit of Democratic Capitalism" which is where a lot of the feel good, minivan, family-friendly vibes in the culture get reinforcement from, and then there was this fella named Carl Schmidt. Schmidt was a Nazi who thwarted the German prime minister's attempt to invalidate Hitler's Enabling Act by resigning, therefore triggering a technical change in government and ending the perpetual emergency instituted by the Act, which of course was passed by on a false flag arson attempt that was blamed on communists. Schmidt said, well the executive is always right, so no, basically, and then we got the Holocaust, millions dead in World War 2, because of that man's clever lawyer talk. And this is where the executive over-ride in Chile's government, the president's ability to flip a switch and have boots in the streets executing bystanders, torture centers and all the rest come from.

Now, a lot of us are from the US, a lot of us are from Canada and the UK, these countries have 90% similar constitutional rights, USA moreso on guns and speech, but there's a sense of what's what that we all benefit from in our educations, business careers and epic leveraging of the Chilean environment to advance those careers. I think we can *all* agree on the following:

1) Nazis are bad

2) A market economy built on government reinforced monopolies that are backed up by lethal violence is not really a free market economy

3) Gulags and communist violence is bad, we can't just burn it all down to get our way

4) AFP compared to Vanguard is a huge scam - not just for the management fees cannibalizing the dividend yields and killing long-term compounding, but also, the annuity-style payouts that index the average lifespan as 95 or something crazy like that, and thus people can't even take IRA-style withdrawals as they please/need. It's a scam wrapped in a scam. Any investment professional knows that the AFP system is not in league with the fiduciary standards that are required in the developed world.

Taking this all into account, there is a real opportunity for Chile to find a better constitution closer to the rights guaranteed by the US constitution, and in the process, become a more free market country, with more equal opportunity, a more dynamic pension system, and a better real estate market supported by decentralization of incomes instead of privilege-fueled real estate bubbles in vacation spots.

That's the Chile I want to raise a family in, and invest in, for decades to come.

It's almost like the US and the UK and Canada got to be such successful market economies because they adapted enough mixed economics to facilitate upward income mobility which reinforced the total retail investment market from being 1% of the population to being 20-30%.

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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Mon Feb 17, 2020 4:23 pm

A headline From BBC Wales
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shocking.jpg
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Officers across the force were punched, kicked, bitten and spat at in five incidents, leading to the arrests of women aged between 14 and 61 and assault charges against two of them.
Terrible, eh? :) If only they knew. That wouldn't even be a news item here.

Not a Molotov nor a knife in sight. Or a Turba.
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fraggle092
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:43 pm

Re John Cobin

Browsed his business site which is still up, and found this retrospectively ironic statement.
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Bad Move.jpg
.
Looks like he hasn't anywhere to run to, even if he did manage to get his "freedom".
Bienvenidos a Chaqueteo City.

Après moi, le déluge

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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by Space Cat » Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:23 pm

Duganist wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 2:53 pm
Hey everyone, new to the forum, long-time lurker
Hi there, totally agree with you, the Chilean neoliberalism sucks ass even from the purely right-wing technocratic point of view. The country is an oligopoly ruled by rent-seeking elites, their short-sightedness and failure to modernize have lead us to the current events.

A really good article on this topic: El capitalismo jerárquico de Chile difícilmente puede ser defendido por los partidarios del libre mercado
Schneider repara en que pese a su relativo tamaño pequeño, “Chile tiene un desproporcionado número de grandes firmas”. Algunas están especializadas, como Lan; pero la mayoría tiene presencia en tres o cuatro sectores básicos, como los grupos Matte (forestal, minería, energía, banca), Angelini (forestal, minería, pesca, combustibles) o Luksic (minería, energía, bebidas, banca). Schneider los llama “grupos diversificados”.

Para Schneider, los grandes conglomerados no son necesariamente negativos. Al contrario, la experiencia internacional le indica que, en la tarea de buscar nuevas áreas de desarrollo que permitan diversificar la producción de los países, ellos son buenos partners “debido a que conocen el espacio productivo y fácilmente pueden identificar un sector interesante al que moverse”.

Sin embargo, los grupos latinoamericanos operan de otra manera. Primero, invierten muy poco en investigación: mientras Corea invierte el 3% de su PGB en Investigación y Desarrollo (I+D), Chile destina sólo el 0,4%. Y mientras en Corea la mayor parte de ese gasto lo hacen las empresas, en Chile solo aportan poco más del 30%. Es decir, el empuje para lograr un salto tecnológico es débil “y lo hace mayoritariamente el Estado”, enfatiza Schneider.

[...]

Esto constituye un tipo de capitalismo muy distinto al que hay en Estados Unidos o el Sudeste Asiático. Schneider lo ha bautizado como “capitalismo jerárquico” y dice que Chile es el caso clásico. Dado que estas grandes empresas están controladas por unas pocas familias, el académico del MIT piensa que este “capitalismo familiar”, como también llama al modelo chileno, “difícilmente puede ser defendido por los partidarios del libre mercado”.

[...]

En ese contexto, la posibilidad de corrupción se acrecienta debido a que muchos conglomerados se benefician de sectores regulados por el Estado. Las regulaciones, remarca Schneider, son técnicamente complejas y tanto los ciudadanos como los medios de comunicación y los políticos carecen de la experticia y del interés para estar atentos a ellas. Se produce así lo que el cientista político Pepper D. Culpepper llama “la política silenciosa”, donde al amparo de la complejidad, las empresas obtienen grandes ventajas. De hecho, en los sectores regulados, la única gran amenaza es el cambio en las normas, por lo que los grupos dedican tiempo e ingresos a esta política silenciosa, explica Schneider.

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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:00 am

fraggle092 wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:43 pm
Re John Cobin

Browsed his business site which is still up, and found this retrospectively ironic statement.
.
Bad Move.jpg
.
Looks like he hasn't anywhere to run to, even if he did manage to get his "freedom".
would not even matter. INTERPOL red notice, means detain on site, regardless of passport.

Assuming he does not have other legal issues back in the states too.
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:08 am

so been seeing an interesting trend, at least down south. a growing amount of anti-communist, anti-new constitution, anti-left graphite.

the local paper this morning I guess they wrote "rechazo" in massive letters across the side of a school in Puerto Montt.

in frutillar, there is a construction site with plywood on the outside, on a corner of a street. one side is pro-new constitution, no +AFP, etc. the other side is anti-communist, anti-new constitution. they seem to not be messing with eachother's messages too. like they reached graphite agreement, and they seem to now be mostly limiting it to non-permanent structures after some initially writing on buildings and such. if I remember I'll take some photos of that corner.
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:11 am

Screenshot_20200218-091013_Brave.jpg
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:11 am

that takes a lot of paint.
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by 41southchile » Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:57 am

admin wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:11 am
that takes a lot of paint.
And still vandalism.
Which is what they were complaining about on the radio yesterday, yet all over public buildings in Puerto Montt there is graffiti saying, kill cops.

I saw some graffiti in PV the other day that said "Armate Sureño" someone on the approve side had crossed out the R.

Yup, plenty of Rechazo graffiti in the South , because there is plenty of rural right wing Pinnochet fanboy/nazi sympathisers here, and in a smaller population they stick out like dogs balls. Between the flaites and the nazis, (who both actually have a lot in common), things are going to get interesting between now and April.....and beyond.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:34 pm

Browsing El Antro. "Antro" in Chile means a low-life place, a Dive, and that pretty well sums up the site, its not pc and foul language abounds. However its not ideologized, all points of view are represented, and from a post on this thread, I found this, which is a pretty fair summary of the reasons for voting Rechazo, much better than anything in the mainstream press:

(The thread is huge, over 6000 pages long, highest number is latest)
Algunas cosas que destacar:
1. La Constitución sirve para LIMITAR EL PODER DE LOS GOBERNANTES


2. Nuestra Constitución establece tres garantías, que TODO CHILENO debe defender:
a. Principio de legalidad (Art 6 y 7): Ninguna autoridad puede hacer nada que NO esté expresamente contemplado en la ley

b. Derechos fundamentes (Art 19): Vida, libertad de expresión, libertad de culto, propiedad, derecho a emprender, educación, salud, trabajo, seguridad social son derechos individuales garantizados y protegidos

c. Contrapesos: Se crean organismos fiscalizadores de la autoridad, para que ninguna se exceda de sus competencias, se regula al Presidente, el Congreso, Poder Judicial, Tribunal Constitucional, Contraloría, Ministerio Público, Banco Central ... nadie tiene el poder absoluto


3. De aprobarse la nueva Constitución:
a. Los constituyentes serán elegidos conforme las reglas de elección de diputados: tendremos constituyentes del 1%, y como no todos somos iguales ante la ley, si tú o yo queremos ser electos necesitaremos juntar 3.000 firmas ante notario y tener al menos 100 millones de pesos para la campaña, mientras que los militantes de partidos políticos, esos que dices detestar, no tendrán que juntar firmas y podrán usar algo de los 7 mil millones de pesos, de todos los chilenos, que dispone el Papi Estado para estos fines gracias a la Soa Bachi

b. De aprobarse la CONVENCIÓN MIXTA los miembros parlamentarios de la constituyente NO PERDERÁN su dieta, pero tampoco estarán obligados a seguir asistiendo a sesiones en el Congreso. Por lo que las personas perderán representación en el Congreso por tener parlamentarios trabajando en la constituyente.

c. El perfil de los constituyentes será similar al de la Cámara de Diputados: 95% - 100% militantes de partidos políticos, muchos electos con el 1% y varios sin mayores credenciales académicas. Referente a esto último, la de 1980 fue redactada en más de 5 años por cerca de 15 abogados que solo debían consultar a algunos militares, lo que se propone ahora es que cerca de 150 weónes, que no saben nada de derecho, se pongan de acuerdo en un tiempo menor que ese, qué podría salir ? :huy: pues es muy probable que seamos testigos de muchos quiebres en la negociación y que sea muy peluo que lleguemos a acuerdos .....

d. La discusión será sobre una hoja en blanco, cuyas reglas probablementes serán más claras DESPUÉS del plebiscito :awesomeyeah: . Es decir, no sabemos que quedará, que se cambiará, que cosa nueva propondrán, ni sus mecanismos ... ningún ADULTO SERIO firmaría un cheque en blanco !

e. La única garantía que tenemos es el PLEBISCITO DE SALIDA, pero la probable extensión POR AÑOS de este proceso - 150 personas se deben poner de acuerdo - garantiza que la gente al final estará EXTENUADA de años de estancamiento económico, político y laboral, por lo que que terminaremos aprobando cualquier cosa ... como una Constitución que NO LIMITE a nuestros gobernantes, dándole el PODER ABSOLUTO a los políticos que dices tanto destestar

f. Si efectivamente partimos con una hoja en blanco y está el quórum del 2/3, basta que 1/3 se oponga para que no se escriba nada. Va a estar pelúo a que llegemos a acuerdos y quizá terminemos con una Constitución de 5 hojas. Ante esto, ya existe antecedentes respecto a temas controvertidos por Zurdistán que se contienen en la actual Constitución, por lo que probablemente apuntarán a:
fi. ELIMINAR en cláusula del DERECHO DE PROPIEDAD la obligación del Estado de pagar el TOTAL del valor de cualquier bien expropiado, esto permitirá expropiar el gran tesoro: fondos de pensiones sin pagar, onda para financiar estacionamientos municipales según el Epidemia de Jadue
fii. ELIMINAR el TRIBUNAL CONSTITUCIONAL y así poner fin al control preventivo de constitucionalidad. En la práctica significa que el Congreso o la Presidencia podrán aprobar leyes contrarias a la Constitución sin que nadie los controle
fiii. Algunos grupos radicales podrán pedir ELIMINAR la AUTONOMÍA del BANCO CENTRAL para poder emitir billetes con el fin de financiar políticas sociales sin presupuesto: inflación extrema
fiv. Entrará en el debate los DERECHOS FUNDAMENTALES: libertad de culto, derecho a la vida del que está por nacer, libertad de empresa podrían ser controvertidos
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