The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:26 am

here is my thinking on where the vote stands right now, and things are changing constantly. this could swing back and forth a lot.

last election, less than 50% of eligible voters voted. 53% voted for pinera, although I am sure there are few that regret that. a small percentage of the extreme right rooted for kast. think it was like 6 or 7%. They will never vote left or against the current constitution.

anyway there is more than 50% of voting voters that are right, or leaning towards the right "no" vote; or put another way, only around 25% of the eligible voters, that really showup to vote, need to vote "no" to kill the new constitution process.

That is not a very high bar to jump, especially considering the way the far right is galvanized against the left, the communists party, the looting, etc. throw in the center left /right fuzzy, swing voters and getting this constitutional process off the ground looks more and more in doubt.

The right is well organized and well funded; the left not so much. they are still fighting over what they are fighting for.

remember, even if there is a win for the constitutional process to go forward, there is still an election for the assembly members, and a confirmation vote once they write the constitutional draft.
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:10 am

admin wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:26 am
..anyway there is more than 50% of voting voters that are right, or leaning towards the right "no" vote; or put another way, only around 25% of the eligible voters, that really showup to vote, need to vote "no" to kill the new constitution process.

That is not a very high bar to jump, especially considering the way the far right is galvanized against the left, the communists party, the looting, etc. throw in the center left /right fuzzy, swing voters and getting this constitutional process off the ground looks more and more in doubt.
Apart from the fachos, as the left calls them, most of the generally apolitical people who have lost their businesses or their jobs, those who simply disapprove of the violence, the people who don't have a local supermarket or bank any more, and most of the over-60s who still remember the last constitutional crisis and how it ended, will vote Rechazo if they vote at all. The religious of any denomination do not approve of the desecration and destruction of Christian symbols either.

I bet that the "forces for change" are already aware that their chances are not that great, and have already planned a campaign to sabotage the voting process in the same way they stirred up the issue in the first place. Through violence, disruption, intimidation, parliamentary obstruction and worse. No doubt the Empleados Públicos, unionised to the hilt, will do their bit as well. And most of the media.
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:23 pm

Here is the problem.

There needs to be an exit from this crisis that neither gives too much ground to the extreme right nor the extreme left in Chile.

This is the sort of crap the extreme right is talking about as a solution:

http://www.intelige.cl/conflicto-insurr ... -en-chile/

http://www.intelige.cl/

If either end of the spectrum gets too much "satisfaction", the other will use it as justification to turn this hole mess violent; and, I don't mean in a burn a few metro sort of way or loot the local grocery store. I mean armed conflict, people dying.
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by PaltaConPollo » Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:34 pm

The World Heritage Site "Iglesia de San Francisco" in Ancud has just been burnt to the ground, most likely intentionally. The "brave socialist warriors" really aren't doing themselves any favours if they think that burning down historic cultural monuments is going to win them votes in the coming election.

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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:39 pm

admin wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:23 pm
Here is the problem.

There needs to be an exit from this crisis that neither gives too much ground to the extreme right nor the extreme left in Chile.

This is the sort of crap the extreme right is talking about as a solution:

http://www.intelige.cl/conflicto-insurr ... -en-chile/

http://www.intelige.cl/

If either end of the spectrum gets too much "satisfaction", the other will use it as justification to turn this hole mess violent; and, I don't mean in a burn a few metro sort of way or loot the local grocery store. I mean armed conflict, people dying.
I think that many people have thought this through, and have already arrived at the same conclusions. However its not a good idea to air this publicly; its too sensationalist and may actually provoke extreme reactions. There is still a chance that the whole thing can be resolved peacefully when the alternative becomes clearer.

However, the Opposition have already obliquely stated that the violence will continue and escalate if the proposition is rejected. Hell of a way for elected parliamentarians to behave.

If Piñera had been less cowardly at the start of the violence, (which was not preceded by declarations of the type that have opportunistically arisen since then) we wouldn't have had this continuing shit show.
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:39 pm

both extremes are indoctrinated in to their positions for not just years, but generations. You are not going to move them one way or the other.

Those extremes probably makes up about 20% of the population on both ends of the spectrum. There is probably another 20% that leans one way or the other hard; but are willing to make some concessions as a practical matter. Those, along with the soft middle, is who needs to sort out what the middle ground looks like.

what I am seeing as a middle ground that keeps this crisis from spinning out of control, is a defeat for the new constitution project; preferably, at the first vote, if not the second vote.

That would force Congress and the political parties to fall back on reforms to the current constitution, and the actual laws that need reforming.

The extreme right will reject whatever constitution is drafted, as that is simply their default position. The extreme left will more than likely also reject the new constitution; because that is their default position too.

everyone needs to walk away with a bad taste in their mouth; neither fully satisfied with the results, nor completely unhappy with it.

There is the saying that war is just the continuation of politics by other means; well, likewise, the politics can only continue when both parties to a conflict reach an impasse. We essentially need to force the two extremes in to an impasse.
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:47 pm

A few posts ago, I linked to a video with an expert on Constitutional Law, interviewed by Tomas Mosciatti on CNN.

Apart from stating quite clearly that a new constitution would not resolve any of the social issues that have been used as an excuse for this attempted power grab, he did say that there is a governance problem with the present system.

Currently, presidential initiatives have to be approved by Congress. Usually after prolonged haggling, a consensus is reached and the outcome is new (or modified existing) legislation. Since Piñera took office, and in the absence of a parliamentary majority, his government has failed to implement its agenda in the face of an intransigent collection of opposition parties dominated by the openly hostile Communists, whose aim has never been to achieve power democratically. They are not interested in consensual government and have used their parliamentary privileges to wage war against the current system from the inside since their arrival in Congress.

The Communists only achieved parliamentary presence thanks to modifications to the electoral law in 2015 during Bachelet´s last presidential term, using the D´Hondt voting method.
This explains the presence, not only of the Communists, but also of diputados like Florcita Motuda and Pamela Jiles, elected, like the Communists, with tiny percentages of the available votes. At the time this legislation was enacted, the current state of affairs was widely predicted. The accession to the levers of power by these anarchistic minorities is the main reason the current conflict has got out of hand.

Since the participants from all sides seem to expect to be part of any constitutional reform, the infighting, corruption, nepotism, cronyism, fiscal abuse, etc etc are likely to continue indefinitely. I also suspect that root cause of the trouble, this parliamentary back door, was set up deliberately by Bachelet, knowing full well what the outcome would be.

She, imho is the second-worst president Chile has ever had, the current incumbent being number one, and she should be brought to trial for malicious meddling with the country's system of governance.
.
Hugo Gutiérrez publicó, como gracia, un supuesto dibujo infantil de él disparándole a Piñera.jpg
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:39 pm

gutierrez is now saying he does not recognize the legitimacy of the constitutional court.

the communist are all one trick ponies. It is oppose everything. hell, if everyone got together and really declared chile a communist state, they would oppose it.
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:34 pm

so seems the project for quotas for women and independents has been shelved untill march (i.e. congress goes on vacation).

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... marzo.html

so, again, we will not know what we are voting about in april, until at least march (and possibly never).
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:52 pm

The calm before the storm. Saludos. <hic>

DSCF3312.JPG
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Sat Jan 25, 2020 7:41 am

so another confusing CEP survey.

https://www.latercera.com/politica/noti ... on/986580/

47% of people that identify as right, say they will vote for the new constitution.

they always seem to generate more questions than they answer.
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Re: The new constitutional vote and the social crisis

Post by admin » Sat Jan 25, 2020 7:46 am

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