State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by Jamers41 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:10 am

cali_chile48 wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:45 am
Does anyone think that there is anything that Pinera could do or say, just himself without legislature cooperation, that would put a stop to all looting and burning across the country?
I think it's quite obvious he could be doing more. He is in a position similar to de Klerk in South Africa. He has to recognize that he needs to lead Chile Vamos to make concessions and compromises...mostly long overdue social and constitutional reforms.

Psychologically, he seems to be struggling with the process of accommodation, ie., how to fit new information into his understanding of the world. He needs an internal paradigm shift. If he can't do that, he's not fit for the job. Trouble is, he's in office for two more years....so it could be a really long 2 years for Chile if he continues rejecting the new paradigms that are being imposed on him, and the whole country will pay for it. He's on the hot seat, he wasn't expecting it, he doesn't seem to be well prepared....we'll see if he can adapt. The longer he takes, the more shit is gonna burn...
Yup, that's a pretty good summary of it all, unfortunately.

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by cali_chile48 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:10 am

Aren't we all a little shutdown,tired,fatigued over all this?
yes, but we're not the ones being paid obscene salaries to solve exactly these types of problems.

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by mem » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:16 am

cali_chile48 wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:45 am
Does anyone think that there is anything that Pinera could do or say, just himself without legislature cooperation, that would put a stop to all looting and burning across the country?
I think it's quite obvious he could be doing more. He is in a position similar to de Klerk in South Africa. He has to recognize that he needs to lead Chile Vamos to make concessions and compromises...mostly long overdue social and constitutional reforms.

Psychologically, he seems to be struggling with the process of accommodation, ie., how to fit new information into his understanding of the world. He needs an internal paradigm shift. If he can't do that, he's not fit for the job. Trouble is, he's in office for two more years....so it could be a really long 2 years for Chile if he continues rejecting the new paradigms that are being imposed on him, and the whole country will pay for it. He's on the hot seat, he wasn't expecting it, he doesn't seem to be well prepared....we'll see if he can adapt. The longer he takes, the more shit is gonna burn...
Ok what? What could pinera do just himself without any cooperation from legislature to put an end to all looting and burning nationwide definitlively?

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by cali_chile48 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:17 am

We might be learning that Sebastian Piñera is a Michael Brown type. Micheal Brown was the FEMA director when hurricane Katrina hit. His experience in disaster relief, if I remember correctly, was as a volunteer fireman in Oklahoma. He should never have been appointed to that position, nor should he have accepted the position once it was offered...but he did...then came a crisis....and he was in way over his head. GW canned him, said "great job Brownie", and then appointed a qualified person, an admiral from the Coast Guard.

Piñera won't resign, but he could surround himself with qualified people. Duh.

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by cali_chile48 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:21 am

Ok what? What could pinera do just himself without any cooperation from legislature?
No, he can't do it by himself. That's the point. He needs to co-operate with others, and not just the people from his own coalition. Chile Vamos CANNOT solve this crisis by themselves. They need to demonstrate a willingness to concede privilege for the ultra-rich and compromise on social policies. Piñera is the leader of Chile Vamos, and is the sitting president. The ball is in his court.

He really does need to take a lesson from de Klerk. de Klerk made the concessions he needed to make to Mandela and the ANC FOR THE GOOD OF THE COUNTRY. He deserves a lot of credit for that, because if hadn't done that, the violence in South Africa would have kept on going.

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by Jamers41 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:33 am

cali_chile48 wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:21 am
Ok what? What could pinera do just himself without any cooperation from legislature?
No, he can't do it by himself. That's the point. He needs to co-operate with others, and not just the people from his own coalition. Chile Vamos CANNOT solve this crisis by themselves. They need to demonstrate a willingness to concede privilege for the ultra-rich and compromise on social policies. Piñera is the leader of Chile Vamos, and is the sitting president. The ball is in his court.
Yup, exactly. Instead of talking about security (while it's a very valid concern), he needs to take the energy out of the movement, rather than making people against him more angry. Something along the lines of going on live TV for a brief moment, again making an apology, offering new proposals (say a constitutional reform to declare water a national interest and public good, for example, reducing/removing IVA from drugs, same for tax on gasoline/petrol, and/or generally making his previous proposals more generous), and humbly ask people to consider not protesting everyday, because it causes economic harm to others, and call for unity.

Something along those lines would be a step in the right direction, instead of the monologue about security and vandals (a valid concern, but not what's needed right now to take the steam out of the room).

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by cali_chile48 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:45 am

From Encyclopedia Britanica:
As president, de Klerk committed himself to speeding up the reform process begun by his predecessor and to initiating talks about a new postapartheid constitution with representatives of what were then the country’s four designated racial groups (white, black, Coloured, and Asian [Indian]). Though faced with a strengthened right-wing opposition in Parliament (the Conservative Party), following his famous opening address to Parliament on Feb. 2, 1990, de Klerk quickly moved to release all important political prisoners, including Nelson Mandela, and to lift the ban on the African National Congress (ANC) and the Pan-Africanist Congress of Azania. Thereafter, he frequently met with black leaders, and in 1991 his government passed legislation that repealed racially discriminatory laws affecting residence, education, public amenities, and health care in South Africa. In 1992 he called a referendum in which almost 69 percent of the country’s white voters endorsed his reform policies. That same year de Klerk undertook serious negotiations with Mandela and other black leaders over a proposed new constitution that would enfranchise the black majority and lead to all-race national elections. In the meantime, his government continued to systematically dismantle the legislative basis for the apartheid system.
This could be Piñera's legacy. I hope he's up to it.

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by Britkid » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:46 am

Mem, it's not like Piñera has come out and said let's move minimum wage to 400/475/550 by now/2020/2021, and give a guaranteed pension of 200 minimum to everyone by next year. If he did that and it has been rejected by the legislature, you might have a point. But he hasn't made any such proposals himself. He can start by proposing something like that himself in a public speech.

(By the way, I am dead against removing the petrol tax. We need to electrify transport to reduce climate change and pollution so we need to keep the tax and eventually even increase it, once inequality has been addressed elsewhere. Removing or reducing the petrol tax would cause more petrol to be sold and consequently more climate change and pollution.)

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by Jamers41 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:37 pm

Britkid wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:46 am
Mem, it's not like Piñera has come out and said let's move minimum wage to 400/475/550 by now/2020/2021, and give a guaranteed pension of 200 minimum to everyone by next year. If he did that and it has been rejected by the legislature, you might have a point. But he hasn't made any such proposals himself. He can start by proposing something like that himself in a public speech.

(By the way, I am dead against removing the petrol tax. We need to electrify transport to reduce climate change and pollution so we need to keep the tax and eventually even increase it, once inequality has been addressed elsewhere. Removing or reducing the petrol tax would cause more petrol to be sold and consequently more climate change and pollution.)
I'm not surprised you're against it.......but you do realize that one of the big complaints here is that "Chile es caro" and that everything we buy has to be transported by petrol still, sooooo..........do you prefer Chile burning now or later? :P

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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by admin » Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:39 pm

so had an interesting trip to the bank

we were in the middle of refinancing our mortgage when this all started. our excutive told us to hold off on the signing the final papers, because she thought she could perhaps squeeze a bit better rate out of the bank, given the recent additional rate cut by the central bank. we just had to wait for the bank to publish the new rate at the start of the month.

guess what?

I was kind of suspicious that this might happen.

The rates went up, due to the increased risk profile of the entire country and the bank. the bank has to go to the international markets to issue bonds, to issue mortgages and loans domestically.

The chilean central bank would have to do something pretty dramatic at their next meeting to influence rates any lower now. They are effectively out of classic monetary ammunition.

so there is the real possibility we are going to be looking at some version of stagflation coming down the pipe.

well, guess we will just take that last mortgage rate.
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by admin » Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:51 pm

The only thing I see that could turn this economic shit storm around, is a sudden run on the copper price (and commodities in general).
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Re: State of emergency and curfews, October 2019

Post by cali_chile48 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:57 pm

True, the economic prospects are not good in Chile.....but that´s generally true globally. The riots are a negative on top the pre-existing negatives.

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