What comes next? Chile peso, and economy 2019

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Re: What comes next? Chile peso, and economy 2019

Post by admin » Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:29 pm

interesting, chile is listed as one of the top 3 beneficiaries of the trade war. not clear from that article how, but i have my own pet theories that it does.

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 392_1.html
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Re: What comes next? Chile peso, and economy 2019

Post by at46 » Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:14 pm

admin wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:29 pm
interesting, chile is listed as one of the top 3 beneficiaries of the trade war. not clear from that article how, but i have my own pet theories that it does.

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 392_1.html
Interesting commentary from Peter Schiff which jives with Chile benefiting from the current brouhaha https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... SE5ZSMqe_w

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Re: What comes next? Chile peso, and economy 2019

Post by admin » Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:26 pm

chile's central benk made a suprise .50 rate cut. they had been talking about .25 cut as they thought they overshot with last rate increase, but .5 is lot for one go.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chile-ce ... 00933.html
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Re: What comes next? Chile peso, and economy 2019

Post by 41southchile » Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:12 pm

admin wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:26 pm
chile's central benk made a suprise .50 rate cut. they had been talking about .25 cut as they thought they overshot with last rate increase, but .5 is lot for one go.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chile-ce ... 00933.html
Time to borrow some money then? Invest in something? Is that the idea? Almost looks like they are panicking reacting like that on a friday Night, so soon after their last decisión, which they clearly got wrong.
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Re: What comes next? Chile peso, and economy 2019

Post by admin » Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:13 pm

yeaaa, i'm not sure how to read that, and it seems neither are they. economy is not great, seen better, but no one is jumping out of buildings. the chilean stock market seemed to like it today.

think the tea leafs the Chilean central bank is reading is the fed is going to cut, europe is just screwed, other central banks and economies are trying very quietly inject liquidity and stimulus without spooking a very spooked international markets. They needed to get ahead of the curve and the dollar before exports imploded.

It all leads back to the yellow buffoon in the white house. did not help that the idiot ambushed an already fragil global supply chains with the mexico stupidity.

copper has not been great because of trade war and strong dollar, etc, etc.

My bet, the world is heading for a bout of (short) stagflation, and all the central banks are trying to cut in to the cuts to get ahead of it.

Think about it for a second. I, as a private investor, with my own little nest egg, am fighting to convince myself to keep investing in to the global weekness and uncertainty, rather than batten down the hatches.

now, imagine you are some midlevel shmuck, working at some midsized company, and you have to decided how to deploy say 50 million dollars in investments, or sign purchase orders, etc, etc. your job depends on getting that call right. how about a billion? 10 billion?

this dumb ass is repeating the mistakes of 1910 to 1930's all over again. That did not end well, if you want to call it an end. More like the end of the beginning.

I have to give the queen some credit for having a great sense of humor. She gave the yellow baffoon a copy of churchill's memoirs. I am sure MI5 informed her that he can't read by now. I guess a copy of the cliff notes and an audiobook version would have been in bad taste, considering she is the queen.

I might order one of those MATH hats (Make America Think Harder).
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Re: What comes next? Chile peso, and economy 2019

Post by admin » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:12 pm

or,

all the central banks, with as little fire power as they have, are cordinating simultaneous rate cuts to amplify the impact of their individual rate cuts.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
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Re: What comes next? Chile peso, and economy 2019

Post by 41southchile » Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:15 am

admin wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:13 pm
yeaaa, i'm not sure how to read that, and it seems neither are they. economy is not great, seen better, but no one is jumping out of buildings. the chilean stock market seemed to like it today.

think the tea leafs the Chilean central bank is reading is the fed is going to cut, europe is just screwed, other central banks and economies are trying very quietly inject liquidity and stimulus without spooking a very spooked international markets. They needed to get ahead of the curve and the dollar before exports imploded.

It all leads back to the yellow buffoon in the white house. did not help that the idiot ambushed an already fragil global supply chains with the mexico stupidity.

copper has not been great because of trade war and strong dollar, etc, etc.

My bet, the world is heading for a bout of (short) stagflation, and all the central banks are trying to cut in to the cuts to get ahead of it.

Think about it for a second. I, as a private investor, with my own little nest egg, am fighting to convince myself to keep investing in to the global weekness and uncertainty, rather than batten down the hatches.

now, imagine you are some midlevel shmuck, working at some midsized company, and you have to decided how to deploy say 50 million dollars in investments, or sign purchase orders, etc, etc. your job depends on getting that call right. how about a billion? 10 billion?

this dumb ass is repeating the mistakes of 1910 to 1930's all over again. That did not end well, if you want to call it an end. More like the end of the beginning.

I have to give the queen some credit for having a great sense of humor. She gave the yellow baffoon a copy of churchill's memoirs. I am sure MI5 informed her that he can't read by now. I guess a copy of the cliff notes and an audiobook version would have been in bad taste, considering she is the queen.

I might order one of those MATH hats (Make America Think Harder).
Yeah no one is jumping out of buildings here . I am starting to re evaluate my position that a dramatic slowdown is coming for Chile. Things maybe slow but they are a hell of a lot better than anywhere else.
Over the weekend I heard of a number of new projects in the pipeline and investments around the region. Worth many many thousands of millions in pesos . Including small one that will see us get fibre optic where we live as they connect up rural schools, so that's good news .
In the neighborhood Chile still stands out as a stable solid place to do business, mind you with neighbors like Argentina and Brazil I guess that's like saying Chile is the skinniest kid at fat camp, but doesn't take a great deal of effort to beat those two. It's all cyclical anyway, Chile is resilient enough. I just hope if this dumbass up north is repeating the same mistakes as you say from 100 yrs ago , and I agree with that, that it doesn't mean we are eventually heading for a world war or two.
Only this time it might be game over and there won't be decade's of prosperity after it finishes like last time, because there will be hardly anyone left to prosper. Anyway on that positive note. Have a good day.
Comuna Loncotoro Lakes Region Chile

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Re: What comes next? Chile peso, and economy 2019

Post by at46 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:10 pm

41southchile wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:15 am
admin wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:13 pm
yeaaa, i'm not sure how to read that, and it seems neither are they. economy is not great, seen better, but no one is jumping out of buildings. the chilean stock market seemed to like it today.

think the tea leafs the Chilean central bank is reading is the fed is going to cut, europe is just screwed, other central banks and economies are trying very quietly inject liquidity and stimulus without spooking a very spooked international markets. They needed to get ahead of the curve and the dollar before exports imploded.

It all leads back to the yellow buffoon in the white house. did not help that the idiot ambushed an already fragil global supply chains with the mexico stupidity.

copper has not been great because of trade war and strong dollar, etc, etc.

My bet, the world is heading for a bout of (short) stagflation, and all the central banks are trying to cut in to the cuts to get ahead of it.

Think about it for a second. I, as a private investor, with my own little nest egg, am fighting to convince myself to keep investing in to the global weekness and uncertainty, rather than batten down the hatches.

now, imagine you are some midlevel shmuck, working at some midsized company, and you have to decided how to deploy say 50 million dollars in investments, or sign purchase orders, etc, etc. your job depends on getting that call right. how about a billion? 10 billion?

this dumb ass is repeating the mistakes of 1910 to 1930's all over again. That did not end well, if you want to call it an end. More like the end of the beginning.

I have to give the queen some credit for having a great sense of humor. She gave the yellow baffoon a copy of churchill's memoirs. I am sure MI5 informed her that he can't read by now. I guess a copy of the cliff notes and an audiobook version would have been in bad taste, considering she is the queen.

I might order one of those MATH hats (Make America Think Harder).
Yeah no one is jumping out of buildings here . I am starting to re evaluate my position that a dramatic slowdown is coming for Chile. Things maybe slow but they are a hell of a lot better than anywhere else.
Over the weekend I heard of a number of new projects in the pipeline and investments around the region. Worth many many thousands of millions in pesos . Including small one that will see us get fibre optic where we live as they connect up rural schools, so that's good news .
In the neighborhood Chile still stands out as a stable solid place to do business, mind you with neighbors like Argentina and Brazil I guess that's like saying Chile is the skinniest kid at fat camp, but doesn't take a great deal of effort to beat those two. It's all cyclical anyway, Chile is resilient enough. I just hope if this dumbass up north is repeating the same mistakes as you say from 100 yrs ago , and I agree with that, that it doesn't mean we are eventually heading for a world war or two.
Only this time it might be game over and there won't be decade's of prosperity after it finishes like last time, because there will be hardly anyone left to prosper. Anyway on that positive note. Have a good day.
In case of a big war Chile will be flooded with draft dodgers from both camps, let alone all the moneyed refugees, while it's mineral resources will suddenly become even more precious. Just saying the obvious...

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Re: What comes next? Chile peso, and economy 2019

Post by mem » Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:53 pm

at46 wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:10 pm
41southchile wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:15 am
admin wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:13 pm
yeaaa, i'm not sure how to read that, and it seems neither are they. economy is not great, seen better, but no one is jumping out of buildings. the chilean stock market seemed to like it today.

think the tea leafs the Chilean central bank is reading is the fed is going to cut, europe is just screwed, other central banks and economies are trying very quietly inject liquidity and stimulus without spooking a very spooked international markets. They needed to get ahead of the curve and the dollar before exports imploded.

It all leads back to the yellow buffoon in the white house. did not help that the idiot ambushed an already fragil global supply chains with the mexico stupidity.

copper has not been great because of trade war and strong dollar, etc, etc.

My bet, the world is heading for a bout of (short) stagflation, and all the central banks are trying to cut in to the cuts to get ahead of it.

Think about it for a second. I, as a private investor, with my own little nest egg, am fighting to convince myself to keep investing in to the global weekness and uncertainty, rather than batten down the hatches.

now, imagine you are some midlevel shmuck, working at some midsized company, and you have to decided how to deploy say 50 million dollars in investments, or sign purchase orders, etc, etc. your job depends on getting that call right. how about a billion? 10 billion?

this dumb ass is repeating the mistakes of 1910 to 1930's all over again. That did not end well, if you want to call it an end. More like the end of the beginning.

I have to give the queen some credit for having a great sense of humor. She gave the yellow baffoon a copy of churchill's memoirs. I am sure MI5 informed her that he can't read by now. I guess a copy of the cliff notes and an audiobook version would have been in bad taste, considering she is the queen.

I might order one of those MATH hats (Make America Think Harder).
Yeah no one is jumping out of buildings here . I am starting to re evaluate my position that a dramatic slowdown is coming for Chile. Things maybe slow but they are a hell of a lot better than anywhere else.
Over the weekend I heard of a number of new projects in the pipeline and investments around the region. Worth many many thousands of millions in pesos . Including small one that will see us get fibre optic where we live as they connect up rural schools, so that's good news .
In the neighborhood Chile still stands out as a stable solid place to do business, mind you with neighbors like Argentina and Brazil I guess that's like saying Chile is the skinniest kid at fat camp, but doesn't take a great deal of effort to beat those two. It's all cyclical anyway, Chile is resilient enough. I just hope if this dumbass up north is repeating the same mistakes as you say from 100 yrs ago , and I agree with that, that it doesn't mean we are eventually heading for a world war or two.
Only this time it might be game over and there won't be decade's of prosperity after it finishes like last time, because there will be hardly anyone left to prosper. Anyway on that positive note. Have a good day.
In case of a big war Chile will be flooded with draft dodgers from both camps, let alone all the moneyed refugees, while it's mineral resources will suddenly become even more precious. Just saying the obvious...
I'm not sure chile will be the prime target of draft Dodgers. I guess assuming the countries in the war have a draft. Most people in the US hardly know what hemisphere chile is in or assume all south american countries are "like venezuela". I think most of the people dodging a draft or leaving or whatever will be looking at Canada and mexico. After that most are going to try to go to europe. A small, well traveled, and intelligent group of people may choose chile but actually getting in will probably be almost impossible especially if it becomes tens of millions of migrants trying to get anywhere but where they are. Chile will no doubt just shut the border if it gets chaotic enough.

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Re: What comes next? Chile peso, and economy 2019

Post by admin » Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:10 pm

We have actually helped a few people dodge the draft already, from countries with mandatory military service. Think we did one from Turkey and one from Israel. Many years ago. Not like there is mega demand for that kind of thing.

We also get a fairly good flow of people that come from families with money, that they don't want their kids or other family members "trapped" by whatever is going on back home.

I am not sure however in the case of the United States, going to either Mexico or Canada is an option like it was back in the Vietnam war. Extradition has become a routine thing back to the United States for all sorts of silly things, including people's money; or, simply cancelling people's passports over tax filings.
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Re: What comes next? Chile peso, and economy 2019

Post by admin » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:11 pm

bloomberg on the rate cuts in chile:
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... rprise-cut

seems every central bank that has had a meeting in the last week or so, has gone QE.

add to a coming strike at codelco's boggest mine set to start tomorrow .


pinera, after really bad poll numbers, did a cabinet member shuffle today.

think this all adds up to a softer peso for longer, but all bets are off if the u.s. fed let's some air out of the dollar.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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Re: What comes next? Chile peso, and economy 2019

Post by 41southchile » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:32 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:11 pm
bloomberg on the rate cuts in chile:
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... rprise-cut

seems every central bank that has had a meeting in the last week or so, has gone QE.

add to a coming strike at codelco's boggest mine set to start tomorrow .


pinera, after really bad poll numbers, did a cabinet member shuffle today.

think this all adds up to a softer peso for longer, but all bets are off if the u.s. fed let's some air out of the dollar.
So copper to go up in the short term? The sooner they manage to automate everything in mining the better, or maybe put more women in there, I hear they are in demand in many mines overseas due to their careful approach to safety and on machinery etc, and are a lot more sensible. I don't know but I bet the pick up truck dealers and bars etc up north will be rubbing their hands together in anticipation of a higher bonus paid to them to break the strike . It's a mafia the miners union, that holds the economy to ransom.

Yeah bad numbers for Piñera, mid term blues, his reshuffle was needed. Not sure who is going to be his successor yet. They reckon Lavin is on the up only behind Bachashit? In popularity. What the hell is wrong with people?

Fed meets next week rate cut still up in the air next week but almost certain by September they reckon.

700 is good for other exporters though.
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