Climate changing in Chile

General topics related to Living in Chile
User avatar
41southchile
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 561
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:39 pm
Location: Lakes Region

Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:18 am

admin wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:15 pm
Yea, I can look out my window, with the binoculars, and see the glaciers across the lake have retreated or the mountain tops are completely brown. I don't recall osorno being this brown, this early in the season. Just a hint of glacier on top.

This has been an odd couple of months. In some ways, the weather had been nicer now in the technical fall, than it was during the summer. Very little rain for a couple of months. Which sort of makes me suspicious that it will come. We have had a lot of really warm days, without any wind.
I have literally seen those glaciers on top of Osorno disappear in the last 5 years, after being there for thousands of years. This is exactly what it did in 2016 when we had nearly a 50 percent deficit of rain, so I wouldn't be so sure those rains will all come back. It's the same patterns, forecasts will show plenty of rain then as we get closer they will fall back and from a prognostic of 10 to 15 mm we end up getting 1 to 5, the first quarter we had only had 100 mm, and April which is supposedly lluvia mil, is going to be dry they say. Still at least we are not getting 32 degrees like on Sunday in Santiago.
Comuna Loncotoro Lakes Region Chile

at46
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 843
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:13 pm
Location: Vancouver/Santiago

Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by at46 » Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:10 pm

admin wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:15 pm
But, guess it could be worse. The U.S. Midwest flooding is just getting started.
https://www.wired.com/story/those-midwe ... uch-worse/
It's funny how the article says more water coming buy flood insurance. Capitalism at its best :) In China and Russia they built a series of hydroelectric dams to manage flooding. In the US all they do is tell you to buy Home Depot stocks when that shit happens :)

User avatar
fraggle092
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1430
Joined: Fri Mar 28, 2008 6:35 pm
Location: In Chile

Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by fraggle092 » Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:22 pm

Nobody knows....
AGW skeptics often claim that present-day sea level rise and glacier ice loss are a result of a natural recovery from the LIA. AGW believers counter that a “recovery from the LIA” is not an acceptable explanation; a causative mechanism must be identified. But they too are unable to come up with a mechanism which explains why sea levels have been rising and glaciers retreating for a well over a hundred years, long before man-made CO2 emissions became significant. Global warming certainly doesn’t explain it.
AGW= Anthropogenic Global Warming
LIA = Little Ice Age

http://euanmearns.com/the-end-of-the-little-ice-age/
Après moi, le déluge

Britkid
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1672
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:59 pm
Location: Talagante area, Chile
Contact:

Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by Britkid » Wed Apr 10, 2019 3:59 pm

Capitalism at its "best" is Donald Trump pulling the US out of the Paris accord to satisfy the fossil fuel interests that exert some influence on his party while a consultant working for Trump's company files a permit to build a sea wall to protect a Trump golf course from climate change.
In 2014/2015 I blogged about my life in Chile. http://web.archive.org/web/201601121940 ... age_id=268

at46
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 843
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:13 pm
Location: Vancouver/Santiago

Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by at46 » Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:51 pm

Britkid wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 3:59 pm
Capitalism at its "best" is Donald Trump pulling the US out of the Paris accord to satisfy the fossil fuel interests that exert some influence on his party while a consultant working for Trump's company files a permit to build a sea wall to protect a Trump golf course from climate change.
The US floods pretty regularly, with or without Trump or the Paris accord. My point is the socialist countries have the wherewithal for large projects that improve the situation for the entire country. Whereas the capitalist countries encourage individuals to benefit from the grief of their neighbours.

User avatar
Space Cat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1323
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:20 pm
Location: Valdivia

Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by Space Cat » Wed Apr 10, 2019 11:11 pm

Britkid wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:49 pm
You're talking about glaciers and climate change admin, but last week you were talking about business class flying as the way to go. It's time to start making some of these connections. Business/first class doubles the emissions per passenger because you can fit less seats on the plane.
Come on, the consumer choices can barely affect it. We can stop flying business class or even driving cars and it still wouldn't be enough to counter the effect of the big polluters like coal plants, factories and freight ships. We can get extremely frugal but it will only motivate the companies to make items that last even less than nowadays, so we'll have to buy them more frequently. We can cut some types of food but it wouldn't stop its overproduction and waste.

Sorry, economically liberal people, but this tragedy of commons is solvable only by heavy-handed centralized market regulations across the world. Quarterly shareholder reports are killing the life on this planet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVJzQc9ELTE

User avatar
41southchile
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 561
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:39 pm
Location: Lakes Region

Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:16 am

Space Cat wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 11:11 pm
Britkid wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:49 pm
You're talking about glaciers and climate change admin, but last week you were talking about business class flying as the way to go. It's time to start making some of these connections. Business/first class doubles the emissions per passenger because you can fit less seats on the plane.
Come on, the consumer choices can barely affect it. We can stop flying business class or even driving cars and it still wouldn't be enough to counter the effect of the big polluters like coal plants, factories and freight ships. We can get extremely frugal but it will only motivate the companies to make items that last even less than nowadays, so we'll have to buy them more frequently. We can cut some types of food but it wouldn't stop its overproduction and waste.

Sorry, economically liberal people, but this tragedy of commons is solvable only by heavy-handed centralized market regulations across the world. Quarterly shareholder reports are killing the life on this planet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVJzQc9ELTE
I think you are right to a certain extent, consumers are being brainwashed into thinking not using a drinking straw, for example, is going to solve the world from climate change. Yeah I get it we need to change our patterns to live more sustainably etc, and those little changes may eventually make a difference in say 1000 years, we probably dont have 1000 years. I guess it gives the masses something to do and feel like they are doing something and small changes all add up etc i get that and it may encourage more development of recycled straws so it's not all bad, but it's not nearly enough.
Consumer behavior is important though because it encourages new ways of doing things , and challenges others that is true.
You maybe also sort of be right on the regulation side of it, it's definitely not the only solution though, for that to work all the countries must sign on and regulate together. Hows that worked out so far for the last 25 years or so ?? What is heavy handed centralized market regulation by the way ?
The biggest thing imo that is going to solve a lot of those issues from fossil fuel for electricity and transport and the agriculture sectors role, is technology change .
This is happening everywhere already across many areas.
To a lesser extent Some regulation is important I get that(being economically liberal does not mean rejecting regulation in its entirety) .
However , Consumer behavior Does matter just as much as regulation, for example in the obesity crisis it meant McDonald's added healthy menu options, and not because it was regulated to do so .
Just like supposedly capitalism led us down this path, it will lead us out of it too, through new ways of doing things, many of the technologies being developed haven't even come into consumers radars yet, but they will latch onto them soon enough (so what came first the chicken or the egg? The new technology, or the consumer demanding it ? ) .
I reject heavy handed goverment regulation it's a distraction to what's really going on, a a lot of things have to be in the mix though.
It's going to be a rough ride but it's not game over yet.
Comuna Loncotoro Lakes Region Chile

User avatar
Space Cat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1323
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:20 pm
Location: Valdivia

Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by Space Cat » Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:43 am

41southchile wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:16 am
The biggest thing imo that is going to solve a lot of those issues from fossil fuel for electricity and transport and the agriculture sectors role, is technology change .
Technology changes much faster if there's an initiative like paying huge taxes for excessive pollution after a certain date.
41southchile wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:16 am
To a lesser extent Some regulation is important I get that(being economically liberal does not mean rejecting regulation in its entirety) .
However , Consumer behavior Does matter just as much as regulation, for example in the obesity crisis it meant McDonald's added healthy menu options, and not because it was regulated to do so .
That's the core problem, it takes a crisis for enterprises to act. Also, McD is a consumer-facing company and they can be directly affected by public negativity. People usually don't even know names of big B2B companies that are wrecking the planet.

Another example: the obesity crisis has been going in Chile for years but local and multinational companies didn't give a F because they were not paying for the costs of this crisis, the Chilean healthcare system was. Only the stamp law made them reduce sugar and calorie content and it's working slowly.

Free markets solve short-term problems greatly but they are myopic at best and sometimes outright evil because companies are not empathetic entities at all. They made of humans and have CEOs (often psychopathic, heh) but they don't think like humans collectively (I can't find the source research, sorry).

The same can be said about some government branches, especially in populist-loving or reactionary cultures but at least governments have initiatives other than increasing shareholder value, like maintaining stability in the country. Climate change will bring times of great instability, a government mature enough to comprehend it will see it as an existential threat (like Norway's).
41southchile wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:16 am
Just like supposedly capitalism led us down this path, it will lead us out of it too, through new ways of doing things, many of the technologies being developed haven't even come into consumers radars yet, but they will latch onto them soon enough (so what came first the chicken or the egg? The new technology, or the consumer demanding it ? ) .
I reject heavy handed goverment regulation it's a distraction to what's really going on, a a lot of things have to be in the mix though.
It's going to be a rough ride but it's not game over yet.
But not everything is reversible, we are already losing tons of species each year, heatwaves already kill people, many hot regions already have extreme droughts. This could end up in lack of food, wars, and a huge migration crisis, by an order of magnitude larger than the Syrian one.

A good example of what I'm trying to picture would be India and China: both countries produce a lot of pollution but now the authoritarian Chinese government is pivoting out of it while the neoliberal Indian government barely makes any progress. Here's another example that made me think (after all, it was the last famine in the "Land of Famines"):
Finally it is important to note that despite the gigantic size of excess mortality in the Chinese Famine, the excess mortality in India from regular deprivation in normal times vastly overshadows the former. Comparing India's death rate of 12 per thousand with China's 7 per thousand, and applying that difference to India's population of 781 million in 1986, we get an estimate of excess normal mortality in India of 3.9 million per year. This implies that every eight years or so more people die in India because of it's higher regular death rate than died in China in the gigantic famine of 1958-61. India seems to fit more skeletons into the cupboard every eight years than China put there in it's years of shame.
I mean, I have more grudges against strong-handed governments than probably 99% of the members of this forum but sometimes the playtime is over. I don't suggest revolutions and dictatorships but even the US economy was switched into the "military mode" in the 40s and then got back to normal when the crisis was resolved.

Britkid
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1672
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:59 pm
Location: Talagante area, Chile
Contact:

Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by Britkid » Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:27 pm

We are going to have floods whatever we do that is clear but climate change will make the future floods (and other disasters) more severe. It's a choice between very severe floods and moderate ones.

I also think it's dangerous to say "consumer choices can barely affect it". As a consumer, you can cut your individual footprint by about half without making your life any worse. That other half is down more to governments and to a lesser extent companies. But the more individuals are willing to go vegetarian, buy an electric car, and refuse to fly business class, and then talk about it, the more governments will set policies that respond to that. So individual changes promote government interference in the market.

Coal plants, factories and freight ships are also providing for consumers because of their individual choices. If we are all more careful with electricity consumption in the home, it will be easier to shut down the coal plants, and if we consume less, there will be less factories and freight ships. Buying second hand also reduces the impact of factories and freight ships. How to cut your carbon footprint: https://littlegreenseedling.com/2019/04 ... g8SyN0lxAU

However, government influence is also important. This doesn't necessarily mean excessively centralized and powerful government control.

I think what we need, for now, is to continue with capitalism, but add some hefty subsidies and taxes that make wind and solar power substantially cheaper than fossil fuels, electric cars cheaper, flights extremely expensive etc etc. Just need to avoid the Macron mistake and promise to give the funds generated to poor people, communities etc. Before you bump up the fuel price massively make sure surveys show you have got 50% of the population on side.

However, the longer you wait to take climate change action, the bigger the government you eventually need to solve it. Anti-government right wingers that are against serious climate change action need to ask themselves what sort of government their children and grand children will live with in an era of mass sea wall building and forced coastal evacuations.

“We should always remember that free markets are a means to an end. They would defeat their object if by their output they did more damage to the quality of life through pollution than the wellbeing they achieve by the production of goods and services.” Margaret Thatcher - UN General Assembly Climate Change Speech (1989)

“Reasoning can take us to almost any conclusion we want to reach, because we ask “Can I believe it?” when we want to believe something, but “Must I believe it?” when we don’t want to believe. The answer is almost always yes to the first question and no to the second.” Jonathan Haidt, Righteous Minds.
In 2014/2015 I blogged about my life in Chile. http://web.archive.org/web/201601121940 ... age_id=268

User avatar
41southchile
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 561
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:39 pm
Location: Lakes Region

Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:42 pm

Space Cat wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:43 am
41southchile wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:16 am
The biggest thing imo that is going to solve a lot of those issues from fossil fuel for electricity and transport and the agriculture sectors role, is technology change .
Technology changes much faster if there's an initiative like paying huge taxes for excessive pollution after a certain date.
41southchile wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:16 am
To a lesser extent Some regulation is important I get that(being economically liberal does not mean rejecting regulation in its entirety) .
However , Consumer behavior Does matter just as much as regulation, for example in the obesity crisis it meant McDonald's added healthy menu options, and not because it was regulated to do so .
That's the core problem, it takes a crisis for enterprises to act. Also, McD is a consumer-facing company and they can be directly affected by public negativity. People usually don't even know names of big B2B companies that are wrecking the planet.

Another example: the obesity crisis has been going in Chile for years but local and multinational companies didn't give a F because they were not paying for the costs of this crisis, the Chilean healthcare system was. Only the stamp law made them reduce sugar and calorie content and it's working slowly.

Free markets solve short-term problems greatly but they are myopic at best and sometimes outright evil because companies are not empathetic entities at all. They made of humans and have CEOs (often psychopathic, heh) but they don't think like humans collectively (I can't find the source research, sorry).

The same can be said about some government branches, especially in populist-loving or reactionary cultures but at least governments have initiatives other than increasing shareholder value, like maintaining stability in the country. Climate change will bring times of great instability, a government mature enough to comprehend it will see it as an existential threat (like Norway's).
41southchile wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:16 am
Just like supposedly capitalism led us down this path, it will lead us out of it too, through new ways of doing things, many of the technologies being developed haven't even come into consumers radars yet, but they will latch onto them soon enough (so what came first the chicken or the egg? The new technology, or the consumer demanding it ? ) .
I reject heavy handed goverment regulation it's a distraction to what's really going on, a a lot of things have to be in the mix though.
It's going to be a rough ride but it's not game over yet.
But not everything is reversible, we are already losing tons of species each year, heatwaves already kill people, many hot regions already have extreme droughts. This could end up in lack of food, wars, and a huge migration crisis, by an order of magnitude larger than the Syrian one.

A good example of what I'm trying to picture would be India and China: both countries produce a lot of pollution but now the authoritarian Chinese government is pivoting out of it while the neoliberal Indian government barely makes any progress. Here's another example that made me think (after all, it was the last famine in the "Land of Famines"):
Finally it is important to note that despite the gigantic size of excess mortality in the Chinese Famine, the excess mortality in India from regular deprivation in normal times vastly overshadows the former. Comparing India's death rate of 12 per thousand with China's 7 per thousand, and applying that difference to India's population of 781 million in 1986, we get an estimate of excess normal mortality in India of 3.9 million per year. This implies that every eight years or so more people die in India because of it's higher regular death rate than died in China in the gigantic famine of 1958-61. India seems to fit more skeletons into the cupboard every eight years than China put there in it's years of shame.
I mean, I have more grudges against strong-handed governments than probably 99% of the members of this forum but sometimes the playtime is over. I don't suggest revolutions and dictatorships but even the US economy was switched into the "military mode" in the 40s and then got back to normal when the crisis was resolved.
Yeah I know , dunno if I agree with a lot of what you say, or not, but I'm still trying to frame things and understand things myself most of the time so if my reply sounded a little disjointed it's because sometimes I just throw my hands up in the air and think this is the way it's all just suppossed to be , its the way we were suppossed to go, not to sound religiosa or anything but maybe it is just destiny.
Are we here for a particualr reason ? Maybe we are not meant to survive forever on this planet we are destined to wipe ourselves and lots of other things that could be part of natures design, so in a billion years something better comes along ?or maybe not ? maybe there is no reason whatsoever, we are just a glitch in the universe and will be gone soon enough. Who knows? Nobody ?
Humanity and humans will never solve this, so those lucky enough will morph into half human half machine and leave on a 1000 year trip to another planet to try again the rest of us will fry or drown.
Comuna Loncotoro Lakes Region Chile

at46
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 843
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:13 pm
Location: Vancouver/Santiago

Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by at46 » Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:37 pm

41southchile wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:16 am
What is heavy handed centralized market regulation by the way ?
75% of the economy government owned and regulated - all the important stuff, 25% in private hands - consumer goods and services. That's what they had under Stalin (and now under Putin), and that's what they have in China.

User avatar
Space Cat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1323
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:20 pm
Location: Valdivia

Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by Space Cat » Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:40 pm

41southchile wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:42 pm
Yeah I know , dunno if I agree with a lot of what you say, or not, but I'm still trying to frame things and understand things myself most of the time so if my reply sounded a little disjointed it's because sometimes I just throw my hands up in the air and think this is the way it's all just suppossed to be , its the way we were suppossed to go, not to sound religiosa or anything but maybe it is just destiny.
Are we here for a particualr reason ? Maybe we are not meant to survive forever on this planet we are destined to wipe ourselves and lots of other things that could be part of natures design, so in a billion years something better comes along ?or maybe not ? maybe there is no reason whatsoever, we are just a glitch in the universe and will be gone soon enough. Who knows? Nobody ?
Humanity and humans will never solve this, so those lucky enough will morph into half human half machine and leave on a 1000 year trip to another planet to try again the rest of us will fry or drown.
I too don't think that humanity is here forever but I'd like to see the amount of suffering in the near future minimized.
Britkid wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:27 pm
I also think it's dangerous to say "consumer choices can barely affect it". As a consumer, you can cut your individual footprint by about half without making your life any worse. That other half is down more to governments and to a lesser extent companies. But the more individuals are willing to go vegetarian, buy an electric car, and refuse to fly business class, and then talk about it, the more governments will set policies that respond to that. So individual changes promote government interference in the market.

Coal plants, factories and freight ships are also providing for consumers because of their individual choices. If we are all more careful with electricity consumption in the home, it will be easier to shut down the coal plants, and if we consume less, there will be less factories and freight ships. Buying second hand also reduces the impact of factories and freight ships.
I believe that a large part of this "consumer is responsible" messaging everywhere is a corporate propaganda to shift the blame and attention from their contribution to the problem. Yes, our choices are important but it's much easier to regulate a sector than persuade tens of millions to change their habits. I'm not saying that we should stop trying but the mass media definitely skews the priorities.
Britkid wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:27 pm
However, the longer you wait to take climate change action, the bigger the government you eventually need to solve it.
Completely agree on this.
at46 wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:37 pm
75% of the economy government owned and regulated - all the important stuff, 25% in private hands - consumer goods and services. That's what they had under Stalin (and now under Putin), and that's what they have in China.
You are quite extreme! Nordic-style government regulatory pressure towards good initiatives would be enough in most cases.

Post Reply