Climate changing in Chile

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41southchile
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:09 pm

needwaterandpeace wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:17 am
41southchile wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:31 am
As I drove past lake Llanquihue this morning thinking how low it was, (haven't seen it that low since the big drought in 2015) I heard an interesting interview on the radio with a climate expert from one of the universities in Santiago .
He was saying that Santiago has had below average rainfall for the last 10 years where they used to have an average of about 300 mm per year, the last decade they have rarely had more than 200mm, although it did point out that 10 years is not a long time to draw new conclusions at the moment its known as a mega drought (many years of below average rainfall) for it to be considered a new normal it has to be an average of over 30 years.
He mentioned that the zonal central sur, Temuco to Puerto Montt now typically has nearly 30 percent less rain fall annually now than it did 30 years ago, although with about 1000 mm it is no where as critical as the central valley areas.
He was mentioning this as apparantly Chile is in an el Niño situation at the moment and the science says that this means more rainfall, which the central valley badly needs, so this year there us a possibility of more rain, although after that he also said the last e Niño in Chile failed to bring above average rainfall in fact there was a deficit that year too.
Chile , like many countries has a lot of challenges to face up to regarding water and is going to have to invest a lot in being more efficient and looking for new water supplies, I've heard a figure that there are 400000 people in Chile that do not have a reliable water source.
I remember in the 2015 drought the municipal in Puero Montt was spending over 100 million pesos a month for about 5 months, in trucking water to families that didn't have water as their springs or creeks had dried up, there was also a dry winter in 2016 where they were doing the same. There is a lot of new rural water supply projects going on around the region it seems, people can't rely on what the used in the past anymore here.
By the way Santiago has had zero rainfall this year and Puerto Montt, well we are still getting warm days in the early 20s and have had nearly 60 percent less rainfall than a normal year to date. I think it was about 90 mm of rain ytd the other day when I looked, and most of that has probably fallen in about three rainfall events.
41 South, since this thread is supposed to be about how the climate is changing in Chile, is it OK to add a few more variables, and then ask for some practical advice (i.e., opinions), since it impacts some upcoming decisions?
For the moment, could we suppose that the climate really is changing (which happens), and that things are maybe +/- 30% drier than in the past, and that this may at least hypothetically be a continuing trend?
And suppose you wanted to find some hectares for a house and a finca, or maybe even a small organic farm? (Or maybe even a hypothetical large organic farm someday, but that is a whole separate equation), but you also wanted to make 100% sure you will have plenty of clean water in 30-40 years, even with projected population growth, and the rains hypothetically continuing to decrease (so you don't have to uproot when you are an old gray geezer...)?

I am not sure if I can post hyperlinks yet, but this was interesting: https:// www .nationalgeographic. com/science/2019/10/billions-face-water-food-insecurity/

And for an additional factor, given those parameters, what regions would you want to avoid, if you wanted to avoid any potential conflict with the Mapuche? This seemed interesting... https:// www .youtube. com/watch?v=sJJ_9UEX86k

Some specific practical questions (if these clarify):
Is the water likely to be stable in the Maule (e.g., Linares)?
Or what about the Ñuble?
And are there issues with the Mapuche in the Bío Bio?

About the Mapuche, is anything south of Los Angeles or (say) Mulchen a bad idea?
Or are the Mapuche not really a problem?
Or are the Mapuche only a factor if you end up doing the larger organic farm (which is not known at this time)?
Or how far south starts to get sketchy (read: "bad idea"), if you want to avoid problems with the Mapuche?

In other words, any guesses where the likely sweet-spot would be in 30-40 years if you wanted to be sure to have plenty of clean water, and you wanted to avoid issues with the Mapuche, and warmth is a "nice to have"?

There are other, lesser deal-breakers (like fast internet), but water and peace seem to be the key determinants. Warmth is only a nice-to-have.

Thanks for any advice.
There is no guarantee or 100 percent of anything in life and 30 to 40 years is a long time to be talking about clean water. There will always be water it's just how you manage it, me personally I am not worried about uprooting due to lack of water in 30 to 40 years as I'll be dead probably (I honestly dont see myself living to 100, or probably even 80 and dont think I'd want to , to be honest).

There is no place in Chile that I am aware of that has good rainfall and good warm temperatures, it's a trade off , you cant have both .

I really dont think the Mapuche thing is an issue, and as long as you do your research it shouldn't be an issue unless you go looking for it to be one. The media in Chile (and everywhere) like to instill fear into people. I personally dont watch bullshit Chilean news, it's a waste of time and just makes me cringe, not due to the content which is full of crime, football and political scandals or whatever else they deem important, more the way its presented and manipulated and dumbed down .

Not sure what else to say really, apart from, get in now, because in decades to come , Chile is going to be shooting people at the border to keep them out, so it doesn't collapse completely, at least NZ is an island and it's easier to control who comes in.
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:36 pm

funny, I dont watch chilean news mostly because they can beat a horse to death, and then some more, to the point I no longer care about the subject.

like what should at most be a 1-2 min interview, really 30 seconds was sufficient, 15+ mins later they are still looping the same 20 seconds of video (they got online), while some "expert" (i.e. only guy willing to go on t.v. to talk about it), is still doing bla, bla, bla.

They sort of do the same thing in written news articles, where you get 3- 4 paragraphs in to the article, and still have no frigen clue what the subject of the article is about. They totally don't get the inverted pyramid style of article writing, nor the who, what, where, why, and how requirements for news. That said, at least in writing I can scan ahead at my own pace and find some relevant information (well, assuming there is some). At least I did not blow 30 mins of my life waiting for no information to be conveyed.
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:50 pm

admin wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:36 pm
funny, I dont watch chilean news mostly because they can beat a horse to death, and then some more, to the point I no longer care about the subject.

like what should at most be a 1-2 min interview, really 30 seconds was sufficient, 15+ mins later they are still looping the same 20 seconds of video (they got online), while some "expert" (i.e. only guy willing to go on t.v. to talk about it), is still doing bla, bla, bla.

They sort of do the same thing in written news articles, where you get 3- 4 paragraphs in to the article, and still have no frigen clue what the subject of the article is about. They totally don't get the inverted pyramid style of article writing, nor the who, what, where, why, and how requirements for news. That said, at least in writing I can scan ahead at my own pace and find some relevant information (well, assuming there is some). At least I did not blow 30 mins of my life waiting for no information to be conveyed.
:D Haha exactly, oh that looping does my head in, the repetition in newspapers is so true too, there is no analysis or background, just mind numbing repetition of very basic facts. I actually prefer the radio, some of that is good. Are there any good journalists or sources of Chilean news here you have come across?
Because most journalists and news shows here are absolutely abysmal. My wife says she actually understands more about certain Chilean news when I show her international articles from the economist or other publications and media outlets in English.
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by Britkid » Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:22 pm

If you want to claim that Greta is a “tool” or a “pawn” where is the evidence? Anyway, even if it were true, it wouldn’t change the science or the need to cut emissions.

Perhaps she has criticized Europe first because she is from there, and now US because she is visiting there. And the reason she is visiting the US now (rather than China) is because that's where the UN conference was this year.

China and India both have a lower carbon footprint per person than the West. For India, even its total as a nation is lower than the US, in spite of a much bigger population. India is actually considered to be one of the few countries whose policies are already possibly consistent with a 1.5C or 2C world.

China has very high contribution to global warming, currently the highest of any country, but its per capita emissions are still well below the US and maybe the EU.

You also need to factor in that the EU and US have higher historical emissions so caused more global warming overall. CO2 emitted decades ago is still going to be causing global warming for decades to come.

But it shouldn’t be about the US and Europe having to act without China. China should act too.

At a guess, the dry north and center is more vulnerable to droughts and difficulties of growing food. And the south, perhaps Los Rios and Los Lagos regions and further south from there, might be better since it doesn’t have as much water stress already? But just guessing. There are probably some predictions online from scientists.

Going back to Greta, I was quite surprised to see today that she is currently heading north to Alberta, Canada. I see why she would want to go there, but she is going to leave herself only 7 weeks or so to travel from Canada to Chile, probably without a flight. That's not too relaxing a schedule.

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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by Britkid » Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:44 pm

needwaterandpeace wrote:
Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:44 pm
And they say at least half the plastic bags and tires and junk that is floating in the Pacific comes from India and China, so why all the intense pressure on the USA and Western countries? And why the blind eye toward Asia? I mean, if she is so balanced and all?
See "Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean" fromsciencemag.org. Find it by googling that title. They try to estimate the amount of plastic waste going into the ocean and rank:

1 China 2 Indonesia 3 Philippines 4 Vietname 5 Sri Lanka

India is 12th The US is ranked 20th. No EU countries are on the list but it says if they were all combined the EU would be 18th.

So, if this study's estimates are correct (of course they might not be), it seems reasonable to say that we cannot tackle plastic waste in the ocean without looking at Asia.

The top 5 are all countries with large populations near the sea.

However, I think you are conflating two things, plastic and global warming that are (mostly) separate issues.

Greta is focused on global warming almost entirely, so the amount of plastic put in the ocean by Asians can't be used as a criticism of why she doesn't go after Asians more.

Also, it's worth pointing out that plastic is an important issue but nowhere near as important as global warming, pollution and animal agriculture. I don't think plastic in landfills can kill millions of people or cause major disasters and wars putting civilization at risk.

If you said to me that you were going vegetarian, buying an electric car, getting solar panels, and that you don't fly, but that you couldn't be bothered to recycle and were going to burn all your plastic in your back garden, throw plastic overboard whenever you were on a boat, and use 5 plastic straws a day just to annoy people I'd be OK with that.

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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:50 pm

41southchile wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:50 pm
admin wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:36 pm
funny, I dont watch chilean news mostly because they can beat a horse to death, and then some more, to the point I no longer care about the subject.

like what should at most be a 1-2 min interview, really 30 seconds was sufficient, 15+ mins later they are still looping the same 20 seconds of video (they got online), while some "expert" (i.e. only guy willing to go on t.v. to talk about it), is still doing bla, bla, bla.

They sort of do the same thing in written news articles, where you get 3- 4 paragraphs in to the article, and still have no frigen clue what the subject of the article is about. They totally don't get the inverted pyramid style of article writing, nor the who, what, where, why, and how requirements for news. That said, at least in writing I can scan ahead at my own pace and find some relevant information (well, assuming there is some). At least I did not blow 30 mins of my life waiting for no information to be conveyed.
:D Haha exactly, oh that looping does my head in, the repetition in newspapers is so true too, there is no analysis or background, just mind numbing repetition of very basic facts. I actually prefer the radio, some of that is good. Are there any good journalists or sources of Chilean news here you have come across?
Because most journalists and news shows here are absolutely abysmal. My wife says she actually understands more about certain Chilean news when I show her international articles from the economist or other publications and media outlets in English.
down south, i like 94.9 when i am driving for mostly news. it is bio bio news.

105.9, for classic rock / metal, and a bit of news. strangely, they do car repair question and answers between songs with a mechanic at nights. which is surprisingly good. they did an interview a few months ago, with the lead singer of ac/dc when he was in Santiago, in English, and the Djs did a pretty good job of doing on the fly translations of the whole interview in to Spanish. He then played one of his hits, with a local group for backup.

I also listen to the local radio frutillar. small town radio, but fun for the local gossip. They claim to have a news department, but I think it is just the drunk that parks cars in front of the local grocery store. At least he gets to the juicy gossip quick.

Are we fully off topic yet? :lol:

obviously, climate change does strange thing to conversations. Like loosing interest fast, regardless of what side you are on :alien:
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by admin » Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:01 pm

anyway, back on topic.

not sure if i posted this.

oh, well.

why the right's usuaul attacks don't work on greta.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/energy ... right-wing

Because she is literally, physically, incapable of giving a dam about what they say. :lol:
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by Britkid » Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:01 am

Your first link says that Soros gave "Environmentalists Behind “Global Climate Strike” More Than $24 Million". If you we look down the article we can see that the $24 million includes many non-environmental organizations. This article clearly contradicts and proves false the headline of the article. Also, there is nothing to link Soris specifically to Greta which is what I was asking so it's not relevant to what I was asking. Also, the "strike" has been lead by school children, not the major environmental organizations. But you probably you think Soros has been sneaking money into children's lunch boxes.

I don't see any evidence in the other articles specifically about Greta's funding either. Which, by the way, is not a lot. She has probably needed US$10,000 so far to fund a few trips around Europe with her hotels and food. and one to the US for her, her father and any other team. Who cares who gave her $10,000?

The fossil fuel industry has spent much more, nearly 2 billion according to this estimate.
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by Britkid » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:10 pm

needwaterandpeace wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:32 am
BritKid, with respect, don't you think you assume too much? Do you know me? Or how I think? Or do you only presume to know how you think I should think?
Sorry if I was a bit rude. That argument about funding for environmentalists is sometimes used by others to claim that it is somehow skewing the science or whatever, even though it wasn't your intention.

Have a nice day to you as well.

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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by Space Cat » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:51 pm

It all comes down to this:

tumblr_ptptjhhVb41qg1n95_1280.png

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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by GringoVikingo » Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:33 pm

needwaterandpeace

Upstreams from this waterfal
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salto_del_Laja
There is hundreds of small stream creating this river, and lot of this area is micro climatic
Not only do I not know what's going on, I wouldn't know what to do about it if I did.
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by jhonwick » Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:12 am

Many thanks to you for sharing such a piece of wonderful information.

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