needwaterandpeace wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:17 am
41southchile wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:31 am
As I drove past lake Llanquihue this morning thinking how low it was, (haven't seen it that low since the big drought in 2015) I heard an interesting interview on the radio with a climate expert from one of the universities in Santiago .
He was saying that Santiago has had below average rainfall for the last 10 years where they used to have an average of about 300 mm per year, the last decade they have rarely had more than 200mm, although it did point out that 10 years is not a long time to draw new conclusions at the moment its known as a mega drought (many years of below average rainfall) for it to be considered a new normal it has to be an average of over 30 years.
He mentioned that the zonal central sur, Temuco to Puerto Montt now typically has nearly 30 percent less rain fall annually now than it did 30 years ago, although with about 1000 mm it is no where as critical as the central valley areas.
He was mentioning this as apparantly Chile is in an el Niño situation at the moment and the science says that this means more rainfall, which the central valley badly needs, so this year there us a possibility of more rain, although after that he also said the last e Niño in Chile failed to bring above average rainfall in fact there was a deficit that year too.
Chile , like many countries has a lot of challenges to face up to regarding water and is going to have to invest a lot in being more efficient and looking for new water supplies, I've heard a figure that there are 400000 people in Chile that do not have a reliable water source.
I remember in the 2015 drought the municipal in Puero Montt was spending over 100 million pesos a month for about 5 months, in trucking water to families that didn't have water as their springs or creeks had dried up, there was also a dry winter in 2016 where they were doing the same. There is a lot of new rural water supply projects going on around the region it seems, people can't rely on what the used in the past anymore here.
By the way Santiago has had zero rainfall this year and Puerto Montt, well we are still getting warm days in the early 20s and have had nearly 60 percent less rainfall than a normal year to date. I think it was about 90 mm of rain ytd the other day when I looked, and most of that has probably fallen in about three rainfall events.
41 South, since this thread is supposed to be about how the climate is changing in Chile, is it OK to add a few more variables, and then ask for some practical advice (i.e., opinions), since it impacts some upcoming decisions?
For the moment, could we suppose that the climate really is changing (which happens), and that things are maybe +/- 30% drier than in the past, and that this may at least hypothetically be a continuing trend?
And suppose you wanted to find some hectares for a house and a finca, or maybe even a small organic farm? (Or maybe even a hypothetical large organic farm someday, but that is a whole separate equation), but you also wanted to make 100% sure you will have plenty of clean water in 30-40 years, even with projected population growth, and the rains hypothetically continuing to decrease (so you don't have to uproot when you are an old gray geezer...)?
I am not sure if I can post hyperlinks yet, but this was interesting: https:// www .nationalgeographic. com/science/2019/10/billions-face-water-food-insecurity/
And for an additional factor, given those parameters, what regions would you want to avoid, if you wanted to avoid any potential conflict with the Mapuche? This seemed interesting... https:// www .youtube. com/watch?v=sJJ_9UEX86k
Some specific practical questions (if these clarify):
Is the water likely to be stable in the Maule (e.g., Linares)?
Or what about the Ñuble?
And are there issues with the Mapuche in the Bío Bio?
About the Mapuche, is anything south of Los Angeles or (say) Mulchen a bad idea?
Or are the Mapuche not really a problem?
Or are the Mapuche only a factor if you end up doing the larger organic farm (which is not known at this time)?
Or how far south starts to get sketchy (read: "bad idea"), if you want to avoid problems with the Mapuche?
In other words, any guesses where the likely sweet-spot would be in 30-40 years if you wanted to be sure to have plenty of clean water, and you wanted to avoid issues with the Mapuche, and warmth is a "nice to have"?
There are other, lesser deal-breakers (like fast internet), but water and peace seem to be the key determinants. Warmth is only a nice-to-have.
Thanks for any advice.