Climate changing in Chile

General topics related to Living in Chile
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by admin » Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:07 pm

Britkid wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:17 pm
Yeah that is a good photo.
the terrible thing, that is not even a particularly good photo among my collection of sunrises and sunsets over the osorno. I would give it a 7 out of 10.
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41southchile
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:07 am

Britkid wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:32 am
41southchile wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:01 pm
Britkid wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:15 pm


I agree that over population is an issue and it should be talked about more.

Is it though? I'm going to look into that some more, but reports I've been reading recently are that population projections that are only a couple of years old are being completly revised and lowered as birth rates in many countries, especially African, have fallen off a cliff in the last 10 years. Far more rapidly than what other developing countries did over the last 30 years, and as they get richer those downward trends will only accelerate.
Do you understand the concept that the world's population, currently below 8 billion, will inevitably increase to 10 billion or 11 billion even if everyone has only an average of 2 children because the world currently has more younger than older people in it? This video explains it very clearly: https://youtu.be/2LyzBoHo5EI

So we are going to 10 or 11 billion in a world where people are using more resources and global warming will create more challenges. Now when we get to 11 billion it may top off and stop growing or even go down, but what worries me is getting to 10 or 11 billion a generation from now.

We may well have wonderful, unimaginable technologies that allow us to support 10 billion people easily on earth in the future. But I'd rather get those technologies first and then expand the population, rather than expanding first and just risking it. Of course, if everyone would just go vegetarian and mostly vegan, we would easily be able to support 10 billion easily right now with the available land.

The human population's expansion has also meant that most other non-human life has died off as a result, which is very sad.
Yeah I understand all that, what I don't understand is all the anxiety, fanaticism, hyperbole etc etc that everyone keeps going on about the supposed population explosion that is looming in another 50 years or whenever its supposed to be.
Shall we send out a memo to everyone and tell them not to have kids in Africa while the rest of the world sorts out the right technologies first? If its going to happen it will , if not it won't, it's not set in stone anything can happen, re pop growth to 11billion.
Let's see how those projections of 11 billion look in another 5 years shall we, somehow I dont think we will get to 11 billion or even close. The way things are going.
These things often have a way of regulating themselves sometimes.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

at46
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by at46 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:51 pm

41southchile wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:07 am
Britkid wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:32 am
41southchile wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:01 pm
Britkid wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:15 pm


I agree that over population is an issue and it should be talked about more.

Is it though? I'm going to look into that some more, but reports I've been reading recently are that population projections that are only a couple of years old are being completly revised and lowered as birth rates in many countries, especially African, have fallen off a cliff in the last 10 years. Far more rapidly than what other developing countries did over the last 30 years, and as they get richer those downward trends will only accelerate.
Do you understand the concept that the world's population, currently below 8 billion, will inevitably increase to 10 billion or 11 billion even if everyone has only an average of 2 children because the world currently has more younger than older people in it? This video explains it very clearly: https://youtu.be/2LyzBoHo5EI

So we are going to 10 or 11 billion in a world where people are using more resources and global warming will create more challenges. Now when we get to 11 billion it may top off and stop growing or even go down, but what worries me is getting to 10 or 11 billion a generation from now.

We may well have wonderful, unimaginable technologies that allow us to support 10 billion people easily on earth in the future. But I'd rather get those technologies first and then expand the population, rather than expanding first and just risking it. Of course, if everyone would just go vegetarian and mostly vegan, we would easily be able to support 10 billion easily right now with the available land.

The human population's expansion has also meant that most other non-human life has died off as a result, which is very sad.
Yeah I understand all that, what I don't understand is all the anxiety, fanaticism, hyperbole etc etc that everyone keeps going on about the supposed population explosion that is looming in another 50 years or whenever its supposed to be.
Shall we send out a memo to everyone and tell them not to have kids in Africa while the rest of the world sorts out the right technologies first? If its going to happen it will , if not it won't, it's not set in stone anything can happen, re pop growth to 11billion.
Let's see how those projections of 11 billion look in another 5 years shall we, somehow I dont think we will get to 11 billion or even close. The way things are going.
These things often have a way of regulating themselves sometimes.
The thing is that someone has already done something to prevent people from having kids - look at the number of fertility clinics in the 'developed' world countries. Whether that's GMOs, vaccines or chem-trails, I don't know, but the simple fact is that we're almost there in The Handmaid's Tale https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... -fertility

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fraggle092
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by fraggle092 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:37 pm

Another sunset. Not so pretty, but...
.
krakatoasunset.jpg
.
Global atmospheric contamination caused by volcanic dust gave rise to spectacular sunsets in the Northern Hemisphere.
.
And screwed up the weather big time.
.
Beat that, FFs.png
.
That was a single natural event that kinda dwarves our current attempts at wrecking things...but all that is just history now. Never happen again.
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eeuunikkeiexpat
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:48 pm

Like the sun has noooo bearing on climate. How many noticed how the temperature dropped when the eclipse happened? Solar output, magnetic changes affecting it, atmospheric dust affecting it from terrestrial and extraterrestrial (not ET but comet and asteroid/meteor debris) sources, rapid climate change has been noted on the other planets in the solar system as well as earth.
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One is to believe what isn't true;

the other is to refuse to believe what is true.

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Britkid
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by Britkid » Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:55 pm

There are plenty of women in Africa and elsewhere having 4+ children because of a lack of contraception and education. My belief is that we should give these women better contraception and education and medical care for their existing children and this will empower them to take whatever decisions they want about the number of children. In practice, the evidence suggests that simply empowering and educating women reduces birth rates. I saw a video a while ago where some women in Africa were being interviewed and saying they regretted having so many children because they had a tough life as a result.

I do think we also need to reduce birth rates in developing countries as well since the environmental impact of a child born in a rich country is much higher. I think 0,1 or 2 children are all good choices and we should probably reduce benefits as you go to the third, fourth child.

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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by Britkid » Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:08 pm

Actually volcanic eruptions, solar, and changes in the Earth's orbit have all had slight effects on the Earth's climate in recent years and decades. In all three cases, the scientific consensus - from NASA and IPCC reports - is that all three had little effect on warming. Probably they caused a slight cooling effect that was overwhelmed by larger greenhouse gas effects caused by humans.

Krakatoa was a huge deal. Of course, 1.2C is going to cause chaotic weather patterns for years. The problem is that human caused warming is going to be much higher than that. If we ban meat, cars and planes starting from tomorrow we might have a shot at 1.2C. I think we are already at about 0.8C or 1C (increase vs pre. industrial levels).

Unlike Krakatoa, which caused a temporary climate effect for a few years before the dust fell down, CO2 sticks in the atmosphere for centuries.

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fraggle092
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by fraggle092 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:51 pm

My point was that Krakatoa was one single natural event, as was the 1960 Valdivia earthquake, as was the Tunguska Event of 1908, as was the the Carrington event of 1859. (A recurrence of this last would have a truly global impact nowadays) And so on back to the Chicxulub Impactor which wiped out the dinosaurs.
Not to mention that we are still emerging from the latest of a whole slew of Ice Ages. Whatever we do, for "better" or "worse" from an anthropocentric POV will probably be irrelevant in the long term.

Save the planet, indeed. That's Hubris.

A serious, unbiased investigation on the end of the LIA, with conclusion that ....nobody knows the causes for sure.
And thoughtful comments.
http://euanmearns.com/the-end-of-the-little-ice-age/
...Changes are coming, and they are coming rather quickly. little we do will accelerate or slow the technology roll-out. It seems to me emissions from the west are likely to decline (20 to 50%) significantly in the next 20 years. This will be, overall, a good thing. We’ll see if it makes any difference...
And finally:
List of excuses for 'The Pause' in global warming.png
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Britkid
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by Britkid » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:23 pm

I didn't realize you were an outright denier. (Or maybe I did, then forgot.)

I won't debate (much) with people who are outright deniers of climate science any more although I may from time to time correct clearly false factual information but not interested in getting into long debates.

The facts are that humans are causing global warming, it's bad, and we need to reduce our emissions. It's time to move past the settled scientific debate and spend time instead debating on the solutions.

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fraggle092
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by fraggle092 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:21 pm

A "denier". People were burnt at the stake 500 years ago for that sort of accusation.

Yes I'm a Heretic! I deny the "true faith"
Here's a Saint for your new religion.
(The one on the left)
'
Invasion of the lifestyle snatchers.jpg
Bienvenidos a Chaqueteo City.

Après moi, le déluge

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fraggle092
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by fraggle092 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:32 pm

I also dislike being preached at. By the owner of two vehicles, no less. Whereas I don't own any. On purpose.

But I have no intention of ramming my particular beliefs down other peoples' throats.
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Après moi, le déluge

at46
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Re: Climate changing in Chile

Post by at46 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:50 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:32 pm
I also dislike being preached at. By the owner of two vehicles, no less. Whereas I don't own any. On purpose.
One of those vehicles is an SUV, too. And let's not forget his 180 square meter house for a family of four. A classic Brit relieving his white man's burden here while living on a UK salary.

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