The official thread re the future Valpo megaquake

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thisisreallycomplicated
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Re: The official thread re the future Valpo megaquake

Post by thisisreallycomplicated » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:10 am

We had some warnings for that one (6.7, lots of shaking, but didn't last too long). The street a block away was buckling, and they just replaced it a couple days ago. And a little farther down there was another place where it was buckling. And then there was a smaller earthquake within the last day or 2, that didn't seem normal. I just hope that wasn't a foreshock.
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41southchile
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Re: The official thread re the future Valpo megaquake

Post by 41southchile » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:28 am

Yeah I hope not, I was actually thinking a few weeks ago, Chile must be due for a bigish one as its been reasonably quiet lately, anyway stay safe, I see unusually Osorno had a couple of tremors yesterday, things getting going ?😦, hope not.
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

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Re: The official thread re the future Valpo megaquake

Post by 41southchile » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:37 am

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:53 am
Well the last one was 1730 with an estimated 300 year cycle I believe when they looked at sediment strata some years ago. The 1906 one apparently was not a part of that fracture.
I looked up that 1906 you mentioned (an 8.2) and found out there were 12, yes 12 !! Earthquakes over 7.0 over a 16 year period starting with that 1906 quake, in Valparaiso including two more 8.2s one in 1914 and another in 1918
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

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Re: The official thread re the future Valpo megaquake

Post by admin » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:57 am

i felt that one in frutillar. super subtle, almost Imperceptiable, and hardly distinguishable from the breeze. at least twice i felt movement this evening and thought, 'that just feels diffrent from the wind, more like a quake'.

it was only a few moments ago i passed the news channel and seen the head line.
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Re: The official thread re the future Valpo megaquake

Post by fraggle092 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:07 am

Well, that was a biggie in Serena. Scenes of panic, tsunami warning, things falling down, electricity off. Still getting the odd little aftershock.
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Re: The official thread re the future Valpo megaquake

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:13 am

41southchile wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:37 am
eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:53 am
Well the last one was 1730 with an estimated 300 year cycle I believe when they looked at sediment strata some years ago. The 1906 one apparently was not a part of that fracture.
I looked up that 1906 you mentioned (an 8.2) and found out there were 12, yes 12 !! Earthquakes over 7.0 over a 16 year period starting with that 1906 quake, in Valparaiso including two more 8.2s one in 1914 and another in 1918
The 300 year cycle quake they are talking about is a 9+. 8.5+ is where mega classification starts but with the 1730 cycle they are talking about 9 or more.
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thisisreallycomplicated
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Re: The official thread re the future Valpo megaquake

Post by thisisreallycomplicated » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:20 am

fraggle092 wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:07 am
Well, that was a biggie in Serena. Scenes of panic, tsunami warning, things falling down, electricity off. Still getting the odd little aftershock.
Yeah, lots of rumbling in Coquimbo. But everything seems back to normal here, except the street lights are still out.
“Now it’s conspiracy – they’ve made that something that should not even be entertained for a minute, that powerful people might get together and have a plan. Doesn’t happen, you’re a kook, you’re a conspiracy buff!” – George Carlin

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Re: The official thread re the future Valpo megaquake

Post by fraggle092 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:20 am

On the Richter scale 6.7. The director of ONEMI said it was an 8 on the Mercalli scale, and it felt like it. A lot of the old buildings in La Serena centre were already in pretty poor shape, so tomorrow will take a look see. Recharging up our flashlights and emergency lights now the power is back, and I filled a bath with water,just in case.

Just talking to a family who had to abandon their 8th floor apartment on the Beach, they said the cement wall panelling had come apart and had opened up to the exterior.

That's the Summer Season shot for this year, at least.
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thisisreallycomplicated
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Re: The official thread re the future Valpo megaquake

Post by thisisreallycomplicated » Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:05 am

fraggle092 wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:20 am
On the Richter scale 6.7. The director of ONEMI said it was an 8 on the Mercalli scale, and it felt like it.
It felt like it here too. The only reason I can believe it was only a 6.7, is that it didn't last as long as the 8+ we had in 2015. People were saying it felt bigger because it was shallow. But 50 km isn't that shallow, is it?
fraggle092 wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:20 am
A lot of the old buildings in La Serena centre were already in pretty poor shape, so tomorrow will take a look see. Recharging up our flashlights and emergency lights now the power is back, and I filled a bath with water,just in case.

Just talking to a family who had to abandon their 8th floor apartment on the Beach, they said the cement wall panelling had come apart and had opened up to the exterior.

That's the Summer Season shot for this year, at least.
I haven't seen any real problems here yet. Just broken stuff that fell over. And some cracks got a little bigger in my wall/ceiling joints upstairs.
“Now it’s conspiracy – they’ve made that something that should not even be entertained for a minute, that powerful people might get together and have a plan. Doesn’t happen, you’re a kook, you’re a conspiracy buff!” – George Carlin

41southchile
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Re: The official thread re the future Valpo megaquake

Post by 41southchile » Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:12 am

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:13 am
41southchile wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:37 am
eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:53 am
Well the last one was 1730 with an estimated 300 year cycle I believe when they looked at sediment strata some years ago. The 1906 one apparently was not a part of that fracture.
I looked up that 1906 you mentioned (an 8.2) and found out there were 12, yes 12 !! Earthquakes over 7.0 over a 16 year period starting with that 1906 quake, in Valparaiso including two more 8.2s one in 1914 and another in 1918
The 300 year cycle quake they are talking about is a 9+. 8.5+ is where mega classification starts but with the 1730 cycle they are talking about 9 or more.
Yeah I saw that, just thought 12 mag 7s and 8s in 16 years was quite a lot, but then saw the average for 1901 to 2000 was 7.6 quakes of mag 7+ per decade, so it wasn't that extraordinary I guess .
I've always wondered about that 300 year cycle they talk about it often in NZ too , the megathrust off the east coast and alpine fault in South I think those on average are 300 year intervals, but ranged from 100 to 350 year intervals . Maybe its like the proviso they say at the end of AFP advertisements , "past performances are no guarantee of what may happen in the future" , we could go another 200 years with nothing, thats a blink in time in the grand scheme of things, no one knows do they ? as much as they like to tell us what has happened n the past they still are no closer to being able to predict them with any certainty, and probably never will they are just statistal probabilities based on the past at the moment.
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

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Re: The official thread re the future Valpo megaquake

Post by 41southchile » Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:39 am

fraggle092 wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:07 am
Well, that was a biggie in Serena. Scenes of panic, tsunami warning, things falling down, electricity off. Still getting the odd little aftershock.
I bet , yeah it looked like scenes of panic alright on Twitter videos, as is to be expected, maybe they should remember that next time they always try and convince themselves in Chile how calm and normal they are when they have earthquakes.
Or is that just how they like to console themselves since they have so many? saying how they barely get out of bed for anything over a 7 is laughable, they shit themselves like a any normal person anywhere in the world.
Yet I've heard so many Chileans scoff and joke about how weak other countries are and don't know what real earthquakes are like, Often when the quakes are in the 5s or 6s, yet still kill many people, like in Italy or Christchurch or Turkey (Just ones that spring to mind in recent times) where that have been hundreds of casualties here the are like get over it .
To be sure not everyone, but enough that I notice it, don't really care, it's just a comment, but I've always found it strange that for a country with such high seismic activity, they often have limited understanding of how quakes work.
For a country that has suffered, a lot, many often have very little sympathy or brush off others tragedies in the world, it's almost as if they somehow here think they have exclusivity to big quakes and the others don't make the cut, as if it's some kind of competition on the Richter scale.
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

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Re: The official thread re the future Valpo megaquake

Post by admin » Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:34 am

the falacy that chileans deaply believe in is, that always amazes me, is that if a building survives a quake, then it is proof that it will not fail in a future quake. i often hear chileans say things like, "the old buildings in santiago are safe, because they survived the quakes in bla, bla, bla year".

an engineer in an interview did a very simple demonstration what is wrong with that. he pulled out a paper clip, and started wiggling it back and forth until it broke. he simply said that is what is happening to the rebar in your building every time a quake happens; but, there is no way to know when it will give out. will it be the 8.0, or the little 5.0 two years after?

toss in questionable construction practice from one time or another in chilean history, or aging metal, that had diffrent standards, or the concreate they cheaped out on adding cement, added too much water, etc, and essentialy becomes a game of Russian roulette, not proof that a building will not fail. every building fails sooner or later.

I was watching this show in new york where they were building a bridge. like 10 concreate trucks show-up for the pour of the foundation. at the last second the forman caught that the trucks were missing cement. they were full of rocks, water, and sand. that was one of the biggest companies in the world, with one of highest profile projects in the world. how often does that happen everyday, and no one catches it? or worse, just let's one go, throwing a cap of good concreate on top to hide the mess?

think i will stick to my wood structures. far more forgiving.
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