electric vehicles in chile

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:57 pm

here is a great infographic showing a nice breakdown of the current, and future, ofcopper demand. i was suprised by the amount of copper involved in solar panels, relative to other renewables.

http://www.mining.com/web/copper-drivin ... evolution/
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:34 am

the carpocolypse is coming, maybe:

https://amp.businessinsider.com/carpoca ... ope-2019-3

not sure i buy the whole "ride sharing will end private ownership of cars" thing. i am sure for urban dwellers it is appealing, considering the cost of ownership involved.

what has probably done more damage to new car sales is simply how long they last now; and probably why american car companies are in so much more trouble than other automakers. they never lasted compared to the major competitors. there is a good reason you almost never see an american car from the 80's restored and driving around; they were not worth it then, and are realy not worth it now.
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:56 am

To me just the stress of urban driving is enough of an incentive to switch to an alternative mode of transportation.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to Chile given peak car means peak copper - and it's only a decade away.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by fraggle092 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:03 pm

admin wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:34 am
...there is a good reason you almost never see an american car from the 80's restored and driving around; they were not worth it then, and are realy not worth it now.
Oddly enough, just yesterday saw an unrestored Lada tooling round town. Looked in pretty decent condition. But then they had a lot less bits to fail in the first place, like all that pesky emissions control stuff, electric windows, radio, etc etc....
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by HybridAmbassador » Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:34 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:03 pm
admin wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:34 am
...there is a good reason you almost never see an american car from the 80's restored and driving around; they were not worth it then, and are realy not worth it now.
Oddly enough, just yesterday saw an unrestored Lada tooling round town. Looked in pretty decent condition. But then they had a lot less bits to fail in the first place, like all that pesky emissions control stuff, electric windows, radio, etc etc....
Lada, cloning from Fix it again tony aka FIAT, everything failed on those Mirafiori er Fiat 131 etc. So in Lada or Moskovich, everything falling apart. Had an old Polsky friend that used to go from then under the Soviet ownership Poland to Moscow often driving a Lada for smuggling things from Stalin land into Poland and he frequently had to stop to repair differential gears, the tranny, and fix oil leaks...
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:17 pm

at46 wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:56 am
To me just the stress of urban driving is enough of an incentive to switch to an alternative mode of transportation.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to Chile given peak car means peak copper - and it's only a decade away.
i have always had this pet theory, going against most views, that the decline of the gas vehical will be faster than the adoption of EV; or, more exactly, in calculating the EV demand, there is an error in thinking that corresponds in a 1:1 replacment of one for the other.

1. people will wait longer, hanging in to their gas vehicals before replacing it with an eletric.

2. people will shift to other forms of transportation, rather than buy either an EV or gas.

i think the copper demand will be just fine. the demand for copper in windings in electric motors may not end-up in as many private EV as there are private gas cars; but they will go somewhere in to the eletritfication pipeline such as buses, turbines, etc. the eletric has to be generated and transmitted somewhere.
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:31 pm

well here also comes a potential big tail wind for high diesel prices and adoption of EV in industrial settings, change in the sulfer content of buncker fuels shipps must use. i have been following this for years, but now the deadlines are fast aproaching at 2020.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/biggest ... rices.html

so higher diesel prices, lead to higher prices in commodities overall, increase demand for eletric fleets, causing copper and other goodies chile sells to go up; or something like that. at least if does happen, it should start being pretty apparent in the second half of 2019.
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:39 pm

seen a stat, seaborn transport of cargo is 50 times more polluting than semi-trucks per ton of goods moved.
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:19 pm

HybridAmbassador wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:34 pm
fraggle092 wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:03 pm
admin wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:34 am
...there is a good reason you almost never see an american car from the 80's restored and driving around; they were not worth it then, and are realy not worth it now.
Oddly enough, just yesterday saw an unrestored Lada tooling round town. Looked in pretty decent condition. But then they had a lot less bits to fail in the first place, like all that pesky emissions control stuff, electric windows, radio, etc etc....
Lada, cloning from Fix it again tony aka FIAT, everything failed on those Mirafiori er Fiat 131 etc. So in Lada or Moskovich, everything falling apart. Had an old Polsky friend that used to go from then under the Soviet ownership Poland to Moscow often driving a Lada for smuggling things from Stalin land into Poland and he frequently had to stop to repair differential gears, the tranny, and fix oil leaks...
I'm seeing quite a few of them here driving around just fine in the city or on the highway. I've never seen one on a tow truck :) I also see stores selling Lada parts, so they definitely have a following. I guess a lot of Latinos have an ingrained preference for French and Italian marques. I certainly can't blame them given stunningly beautiful offerings recently from the likes of Peugeot and Alfa-Romeo.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:35 pm

admin wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:39 pm
seen a stat, seaborn transport of cargo is 50 times more polluting than semi-trucks per ton of goods moved.
In Vancouver they did a good job cleaning up the car fleet with mandatory annual tail-pipe pollution monitoring. But then they wondered why the air quality never improved, before someone pointed out all the tankers coming into port.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:45 pm

admin wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:17 pm
i think the copper demand will be just fine. the demand for copper in windings in electric motors may not end-up in as many private EV as there are private gas cars; but they will go somewhere in to the eletritfication pipeline such as buses, turbines, etc. the eletric has to be generated and transmitted somewhere.
I sure hope so :) I was just thinking that copper is used not only in the cars themselves but also in all the machinery it takes to produce the materials that go into a car. Retooling of an assembly plant for a new models runs over USD120 mln. Small electric vehicles will require a lot less materials and machinery.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:01 am

From an environmental perspective, what's needed is less gas and diesel cars. Doesn't really matter whether that's replacing gas/diesel with electric, or more ride sharing or more public transport. Either achieves similar results from a CO2 and pollution reduction perspective.

Ride sharing and public transport and environmental issues are factors that act to reduce car sales, but there are other powerful factors driving up car sales - mainly increasing global population and the industrialization of previously poor countries. Overall, we can expect a slight reduction of car sales in developed countries, a slight increase in developing countries, and globally car sales to stay around the 100 million a year mark throughout the 2020s.

It may go up or down a bit but I don't see a dramatic decrease happening.

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