electric vehicles in chile

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at46
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:40 pm

Tesla hits a tree and burns the driver alive, then reignites again while sitting at a tow yard.

All you need to know about a huge, quickly burning battery in a high-speed vehicle.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02- ... ing-driver

If I had to vote on the future of EV, something like this would be more like it.
https://www.dezeen.com/2019/02/25/citro ... d-drivers/

at46
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:50 pm

bert.douglas wrote:
Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:47 pm
at46 wrote:
Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:40 pm
Tesla hits a tree and burns the driver alive, then reignites again while sitting at a tow yard.

All you need to know about a huge, quickly burning battery in a high-speed vehicle.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02- ... ing-driver
Every day 1000 gasoline fueled cars crash and burn. No one pays any attention. One Tesla crashes and burns and it is front page news.

A battery fire is slower burning but longer lasting than a gasoline fire. No explosion. Easier to get away from. Less hazardous to nearby vehicles.

However, if you drive into a palm tree at 100 mph, in any kind of car, probably you are already dead and it doesn't matter.
Well, they tried to get the guy out of the car, but there were no door handles, coz it's a Tesla. It doesn't just make you into a tree-hugger, it makes you into a tree-hugging shish-ke-bob.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:21 pm

I have simply investment bet on electric vehicles. I don't buy electric vehicle companies, or anything too far up the food chain directly. Who knows how that is going to turn out in 30 years.

I look at the major components of an EV, then buy the stock in the companies providing the raw materials. When they drop one of those components, I will drop the resources and replace them in my portfolio with anything that get's added. It is like they say about the Gold mining rush in California. The guys that really got rich, sold the shovels and picks.

Right now I am buying lithium miners, rare earth metal miners (5%, think that was what they call a 'rip your face of rally' today), and believe it or not I even bought copper miners (ev vehicles use at least 4x the copper of gas cars).

I told myself, a couple years ago, 'don't invest in copper miners, that is not diversifying, your whole life is indirectly tied the price of copper' (well, not really, but pretty dam important if you live in Chile). Still, I have been watching a copper miners closely for years, and I broke down and put a little bit of money in to a copper mining ETF a couple of weeks ago. Man is that paying off so far. Other than my own self-imposed psychological moratorium on investing in copper, the charts, the stars, the moon, and everything else was just way tooooo setup for a rally in the price of copper.

The highest I have gone up the food chain in the EV market so far, was Chile's Molymet. They produce molybdenum. Mostly used in high-strength steel, like pipes for drilling oil wells. I bought them originally because of the resurgence in fracking in the United States, after the 2015 collapse in oil prices. Then they entered the competition with Corfo and won, to open a lithium battery plant. Corfo gave lithium miners in Chile extended rights to mine lithium, under a condition that 25% of their lithium be sold to the winners of that competition at their lowest freight on board price at the port. The whole idea is to kick start a the lithium battery industry in Chile. Molymet was the only Chilean company to win, next to Panasonic and a Chinese company. It is kind of a long-shot, but think they will do o.k.They are pretty well run company as far as I can see.

The great thing is, if the major components of EV's and renewable energy holds up for say 10-20 more years, Chile has it all. There are even reopening the old cobalt mines in Chile. One way or the other, Chile is going to make a lot of money off of the whole EV market. All those exploding volcanoes and earthquakes (where all the minerals come from), they are going to pay Chile back for the damages.

You don't need to know anything about the EV market, but over the next 10 years, my bet is everything in Chile goes up, massively, because of it. I mean everything. Buy a piece of swamp land in the Patagonia, it will go up in price because of what is coming out of that dessert in Northern Chile. Buy an apartment in Vina or Santiago, it will go up. Don't like the potholed filled street you live on, wait for it. Chile is going to be flush with tax revenue.
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at46
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:03 pm

bert.douglas wrote:
Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:51 pm
at46 wrote:
Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:50 pm
Well, they tried to get the guy out of the car, but there were no door handles, coz it's a Tesla. It doesn't just make you into a tree-hugger, it makes you into a tree-hugging shish-ke-bob.
Come on. You are stretching to find something to complain about with the Tesla.

The statistics on deaths per mile are low for Tesla. Lower than for typical cars on road.

Handle or no handle, most people drive around with their doors locked.
It is very common for doors to be jammed after a collision.
The "jaws of life" were invented out of necessity long before Tesla.
My brother was a paramedic. He always carried a "window breaker" in his pocket, to help get into wrecked cars.
Heh, I'm just exaggerating a bit, it's a Chilean thing :)

Tesla has done a good mechanical engineering job ripping bits and pieces from Mercedes and Lotus. They've done an even better financial engineering job, together with their underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, ripping the American taxpayer through subsidies, and then taking the operation overseas to China. I mean, that's a real hustle if I ever saw one. Throw in the privatization of NASA via Space-x and all hats are off to this busy body and those behind him.

As to cutting up Tesla to get jammed people out, it's actually quite tricky because of high voltage wires in unusual places and lack of training for first responders.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:07 pm

Even if Tesla did kill this one person, the gas and diesel cars have killed millions in air pollution and climate change.

Perhaps they can decide a clever piece of software added to the vehicles later that detects an abnormal situation and causes the handles to pop out.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:57 pm

here is a great infographic showing a nice breakdown of the current, and future, ofcopper demand. i was suprised by the amount of copper involved in solar panels, relative to other renewables.

http://www.mining.com/web/copper-drivin ... evolution/
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:34 am

the carpocolypse is coming, maybe:

https://amp.businessinsider.com/carpoca ... ope-2019-3

not sure i buy the whole "ride sharing will end private ownership of cars" thing. i am sure for urban dwellers it is appealing, considering the cost of ownership involved.

what has probably done more damage to new car sales is simply how long they last now; and probably why american car companies are in so much more trouble than other automakers. they never lasted compared to the major competitors. there is a good reason you almost never see an american car from the 80's restored and driving around; they were not worth it then, and are realy not worth it now.
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at46
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:56 am

To me just the stress of urban driving is enough of an incentive to switch to an alternative mode of transportation.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to Chile given peak car means peak copper - and it's only a decade away.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by fraggle092 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:03 pm

admin wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:34 am
...there is a good reason you almost never see an american car from the 80's restored and driving around; they were not worth it then, and are realy not worth it now.
Oddly enough, just yesterday saw an unrestored Lada tooling round town. Looked in pretty decent condition. But then they had a lot less bits to fail in the first place, like all that pesky emissions control stuff, electric windows, radio, etc etc....
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by HybridAmbassador » Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:34 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:03 pm
admin wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:34 am
...there is a good reason you almost never see an american car from the 80's restored and driving around; they were not worth it then, and are realy not worth it now.
Oddly enough, just yesterday saw an unrestored Lada tooling round town. Looked in pretty decent condition. But then they had a lot less bits to fail in the first place, like all that pesky emissions control stuff, electric windows, radio, etc etc....
Lada, cloning from Fix it again tony aka FIAT, everything failed on those Mirafiori er Fiat 131 etc. So in Lada or Moskovich, everything falling apart. Had an old Polsky friend that used to go from then under the Soviet ownership Poland to Moscow often driving a Lada for smuggling things from Stalin land into Poland and he frequently had to stop to repair differential gears, the tranny, and fix oil leaks...
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:17 pm

at46 wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:56 am
To me just the stress of urban driving is enough of an incentive to switch to an alternative mode of transportation.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to Chile given peak car means peak copper - and it's only a decade away.
i have always had this pet theory, going against most views, that the decline of the gas vehical will be faster than the adoption of EV; or, more exactly, in calculating the EV demand, there is an error in thinking that corresponds in a 1:1 replacment of one for the other.

1. people will wait longer, hanging in to their gas vehicals before replacing it with an eletric.

2. people will shift to other forms of transportation, rather than buy either an EV or gas.

i think the copper demand will be just fine. the demand for copper in windings in electric motors may not end-up in as many private EV as there are private gas cars; but they will go somewhere in to the eletritfication pipeline such as buses, turbines, etc. the eletric has to be generated and transmitted somewhere.
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:31 pm

well here also comes a potential big tail wind for high diesel prices and adoption of EV in industrial settings, change in the sulfer content of buncker fuels shipps must use. i have been following this for years, but now the deadlines are fast aproaching at 2020.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/biggest ... rices.html

so higher diesel prices, lead to higher prices in commodities overall, increase demand for eletric fleets, causing copper and other goodies chile sells to go up; or something like that. at least if does happen, it should start being pretty apparent in the second half of 2019.
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