electric vehicles in chile

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Julito » Tue Sep 24, 2019 2:38 pm


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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Tue Sep 24, 2019 2:46 pm

hey, I'm still waiting for my 2001 space odyssey. :alien:
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41southchile
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by 41southchile » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:24 pm

I have a feeling this has been discussed before but I still can't understand where all this electricity for electric vehicles is coming from.
Currently electric vehicles make up less than 0.5 percent of vehicles on the road or was it 0.05 percent? Renewables make up just under 7 percent of electricity generation, as the developing world grows and develops they consume more electricity and predictions are by 2030 there will be a 50 percent increase on what is used today around the world that's not including electric vehicles.

There is an interesting logical article this week in the economist on the challenges that the world faces in even coming close to what they have agreed in Paris 1.5 or 2 degrees, (which by the way are not degree increases that mean anything, they are just targets that they think will mitigate some of the effects ) the world will not be destroyed or reach a tipping point of no return if they are not met.

There seems to be a lot of hysteria and mental health issues developing amongst many people around the world in what they think (believe ) is going to happen and misinformation or hyperbole .

To understand where we come from and what happened over the 20th century helps, that's 100 yrs of expansion and wealth creation and technological advancements. It's not going to change in 20 years or 30 and probably not 50.
Will people die? Yes. Will things change? Yes. Will the whole world be destroyed and be uninhabitable? No . Thats been the way of human civilization forever.

A certain 16 year old jumping up and down and crying that her life has been destroyed and she has no future because the world hasn't acted, doesn't help , that's not how it works. But I get it, I can understand that she believes in what she is saying, and if she thinks that it might help , if she thinks she is the chosen one, sure whatever, well ok then. Shit takes time, especially when dealing with governments. But their rhetoric has be laced with some friggin realism.

The challenge is immense, unprecedented, etc to even try and contain what carbon has already been released into the atmosphere let alone mitigate future demands and their effects. To change just about every aspect of modern life and the complicated economy's of the world will happen, but there will be collateral damage, there already is. For a non emotional article read economist this week.

Flying cars on a mass scale are more likely than reorganizing the whole worlds way of living in 30 years
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:29 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:42 am
copec is installing charging stations in the north, specifically targeting the transport of workers to the mines.

https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia ... en/832238/
What they told me at the conference is that they are doing the connection from Concepcion to Temuco and then after that Antofagasta to San Pedro de Atacama.

I asked them about extending the route to La Serena (from Santiago side) and they said they were looking into it but it was difficult because there is that large gap between Los Vilos and Tongoy with no petrol station.

I wonder if they'll use a similar system to the one mentioned in the article you posted: solar panels plus batteries. There are also a lot of wind turbines around there.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by 41southchile » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:32 pm

Btw, I've heard ( but yet to confirm) the wind park near us is a white elephant at the moment even though all the towers are up, there simply isn't the capacity or ability to inject into the distribution system and as there is enough supply at present . Therefore injecting what they have constructed will mean taking some other generation off line (which no doubt is coal or something that still has a few years life left in it) .
Piñera might think he can talk the talk, but reality might be something else, at least they look pretty, just not very generational at this stage, and for 250 million USD they should be, who knows?
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:53 pm

The electricity for electric vehicles will come from expansion of low carbon power globally such as wind and solar (certainly) as well as others that may or may not include some form of hydrogen related power, nuclear, biomass, hydro etc (TBD). People who point to the low % of wind and solar currently miss the point that costs have dramatically fallen in recent years. The reason wind and solar are very low % globally is because the current infrastructure has been built over the last several decades and for most of that time solar's prices made it a science project.

However, as of today, solar, wind and other renewables already cost a similar amount to fossil fuels and nuclear, and may get cheaper still. Chile's solar numbers 10 years from now will be massively higher than today.

Yes, with population growth, economic increase, electric cars (not to mention electrification of other transport) and even some more to use electricity for heating we will see a massive increase of electricity by 2050 (about double what we need today perhaps). Smart grids and efficiency will also play a role. I don't see what's a problem. Out of doubling our electricity grid or trying to adapt to what scientists think will happen in 2050 if we don't the former is not only easier and more ethical, but even cheaper by all accounts.

As I've mentioned in the past, the slow rate of adoption of electric cars means that grid only needs to increase about 1% per year to accommodate them.

I read the article. I agree that it's worth reading the Economist.

These changes have to happen, or we will have catastrophic climate change. If you don't believe that the world's energy will be reorganized in the next 30 years, then you either are unaware of what scientists believe, don't believe in science, or you know that a disaster of biblical proportions is coming. Also, we really need to make a lot of progress in 5-10 years not just 30.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:23 pm

The US has 300 electric buses, China has 421,000. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 000-to-300
China has the domestic capacity to produce and recycle everything that's related to EVs. None of the other countries are even close. Until Chile has the capacity to do the same, buying into EVs is pretty much like mortgaging your future to China.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:52 pm

I think there's a good chance that we'll figure out how to recycle everything but even if we don't and even if the batteries were to be thrown into the sea that wouldn't cause anything like the kind of environmental damage caused by fossil fuels. There are thousands of people dying in Chile each year, and millions globally, because of air pollution even before climate change is taken into account. We need cleaner air in the world's cities.

I came up with a plan to get to Santiago in an environmentally friendly manner from here when I went on Friday. I cycled to Cuidad Satellite on the outskirts of Santiago which is an easy 2-hour cycle from my house, and then caught the bus 113 from Cuidad Satellite, which I thought was the electric bus since I'd noticed when driving by on other days it was one of those modern, red looking ones. However I noticed it sounded and felt exactly like a petrol one, even the way they shake about when they are stationary. So I checked with the driver just to confirm for sure - it's not electric. So not all the modern, red buses are electric.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by 41southchile » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:19 pm

Britkid wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:53 pm
The electricity for electric vehicles will come from expansion of low carbon power globally such as wind and solar (certainly) as well as others that may or may not include some form of hydrogen related power, nuclear, biomass, hydro etc (TBD). People who point to the low % of wind and solar currently miss the point that costs have dramatically fallen in recent years. The reason wind and solar are very low % globally is because the current infrastructure has been built over the last several decades and for most of that time solar's prices made it a science project.

However, as of today, solar, wind and other renewables already cost a similar amount to fossil fuels and nuclear, and may get cheaper still. Chile's solar numbers 10 years from now will be massively higher than today.

Yes, with population growth, economic increase, electric cars (not to mention electrification of other transport) and even some more to use electricity for heating we will see a massive increase of electricity by 2050 (about double what we need today perhaps). Smart grids and efficiency will also play a role. I don't see what's a problem. Out of doubling our electricity grid or trying to adapt to what scientists think will happen in 2050 if we don't the former is not only easier and more ethical, but even cheaper by all accounts.

As I've mentioned in the past, the slow rate of adoption of electric cars means that grid only needs to increase about 1% per year to accommodate them.

I read the article. I agree that it's worth reading the Economist.

These changes have to happen, or we will have catastrophic climate change. If you don't believe that the world's energy will be reorganized in the next 30 years, then you either are unaware of what scientists believe, don't believe in science, or you know that a disaster of biblical proportions is coming. Also, we really need to make a lot of progress in 5-10 years not just 30.
People hate nuclear especially after Fukushima and countries are closing nuclear plants, so that's debatable. The last experiment (in around 2007- 2010) I think with biomass biofuels saw commodity prices explode and riots across the developing world such as the middle east and Africa.
There is a lot of push back on wind and nimbyism unless they are offshore and out of sight. Hydro? that's been shown to be a no go in most developed countries now, even developing ones.
Hydrogen? Still not convinced we are even close on that, plenty of talk over the last decade, but?
Still a low uptake on renewables, but things like solar prices have fallen mostly because of govt interference and incentives, and China. will they continue to fall? Anyone's guess .

I admire your optimism Bridkid, I really do, but like I say it just doesn't add up for me , new coal plants are coming onstream in India, China and many other countries, I wish your were right in some sense but it's just not happening and reorganizing the worlds entire energy grid and reliance on fossil fuels will not happen in 30 years , not even close.

Like I say I do kind of wish you were right, but in my humble opinion it wont happen anywhere near the time frames you are talking. Not due to unawareness or non belief or whatever, but just logically and logistically it won't, we are humans, its nice to have goals but that's all they are.

I think everyone or most have accepted there will be certain areas of the world affected more than others, but it's not gonna be Armageddon or global catastrophe , life will go on, humans will adapt and as shit gets more serious maybe they will adapt faster, there will be no point of non return, people will die and maybe the planet will wipe out a billion or so people to get some balance who knows. Maybe that's the way it's meant to be? Have a good cleanout of the population, mother nature fighting back. And without so many people buying palm oil products that are grown on peat land forests burnt in Indonesia (funny we dont hear much about that, just Bolsonaro), or other consumers of dodgy sources products who dont give a fig, the planet can get a respite and start regenerating.

I don't have any answers, just thoughts and opinions (like everyone else) no one can see the future. But this mass psychosis that is enveloping so many about the destruction of civilization and all the bs fake news from both sides is really starting to get next level.
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by 41southchile » Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:48 am

Britkid wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:52 pm
I think there's a good chance that we'll figure out how to recycle everything but even if we don't and even if the batteries were to be thrown into the sea that wouldn't cause anything like the kind of environmental damage caused by fossil fuels. There are thousands of people dying in Chile each year, and millions globally, because of air pollution even before climate change is taken into account. We need cleaner air in the world's cities.
Um, not to sure on that one to be honest, no sea basically means no life in earth, all life on land comes from the sea, millions of toxic batteries into the sea is better than air pollution,??? think you jumped the shark on that one . You do realise also that Fossil fuels have also benefited you, me, and billions of people around the world over the last century? It isn't just fuel for transportation. Yes no doubt, millions have died over that time too, as a result or collateral damage, it is what it is.
In actual fact we probably need less people living in mega cities and being so reliant on mass produced shit and agro products being shipped to them from wherever so they can consume comfortably via uber eats. That's why cities they are so contaminated, because they are so unnaturally overpopulated, but that isn't realistic, is it? just like throwing millions of toxic batteries into the ocean isn't.
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:56 am

Plausible to say fossil fuels in the past were a net gain, but past and future are different.

Biomass has a huge downside of high land use, while hydro has ecological issues but still beats coal and oil.

Solar and wind needed public subsidies to get going in the 1990s and 2000s, that's true, but those public subsidies eventually let to a situation where that led to market development and they are now competitive on their own.

It's a myth that the public oppose onshore wind, at least in the case of the UK, where latest polls show about 80% support it.

Now keep in mind in England there are villages everywhere, and you can't put those turbines out of sight, and you still get those numbers of 80%. In the case of Chile, there are many, many places to put more turbines far away from populations.

The other good news is that offshore wind is now coming to price parity with other sources of energy because they have managed to offset the additional costs of offshore somehow, I think by building up economies of scale with projects of large turbines.

I'm not that optimistic overall. The transition to renewable electric grids and electric cars is very likely to happen over the next 30-50 years given price arguments alone, but it needs more government action (taxes, cap and trade, international deals) in the next 5-10 years to avert disaster.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:26 am

Britkid wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:56 am

The other good news is that offshore wind is now coming to price parity with other sources of energy because they have managed to offset the additional costs of offshore somehow, I think by building up economies of scale with projects of large turbines.
What price parity are you talking about? Prices in Germany are double those in France and seven times higher than in Ukraine. France and Ukraine get most of their electricity from nuclear. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistic ... statistics

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