electric vehicles in chile

General topics related to Living in Chile
Britkid
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2080
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:59 pm
Location: Talagante area, Chile
Contact:

Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:54 pm

Agree with you on the need for cheaper electric cars.

I would agree with your point if we were talking about Tesla 5 years ago, or some less established start up today. But investing on Tesla, although still risky today, may not be the total crap shoot it was a few years ago.

Lithium is in some ways a more sensible and solid bet, but Tesla may still have more upside if you're willing to take the risk on a company whose CEO has done things like randomly accused someone of being a paedophile on twitter and told investors to stop asking boneheaded questions on a live earnings call and then took like 10 questions from a random youtube blogger instead, and also getting into trouble with the authorities for making a tweet that could have influenced the share price: i.e. "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured." There was later some debate about how secured the funding really was. So Musk himself is something of a wild card with a dark side as well as a bit of a charismatic genius.

This post explains why Tesla will change the world, and it's good, but its very very very long. An hour or two to read and digest it? Maybe? Scroll all the way to the bottom to check length before deciding if it's worth reading.
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesl ... -life.html

Anyway, point is Tesla's 2018 revenue was $21.46 billion. This isn't just some startup any more, this is a serious company now. I just had a look and I was surprised to find that its market capitalization (the total value resulting from price of each share x number of shares) is $47.2 billion, for a price to sales ratio of 2.2 (market capitalization vs revenue). That surprises me. I would have thought that investors would have slammed the p/s ratio up to 5 or 10 for a company with such high future potential. The p/s ratio was around 5 or 6 as recently as 2017, and has even been at around 10 or 20 years and years ago. So 2.2 looks quite sane indeed for a company still in early growth phase.

Profitability remains a concern. At the moment, the company is close to breaking even (i.e. its profits/losses are a small fraction of its revenue). Probably, it will steadily move towards low but consistent profitability in my view. Shipment volumes are a concern. They just don't seem to be able to produce cars at the same rate as other companies yet.

The other wildcard is here is do we get Trump in 2020 and Republican congress/senate (meaning no subsidies for Tesla) or do we get increasingly left wing democrats with a green new deal (which could mean subsidies).

I think Tesla is actually worth a look for investors willing to risk losing. Just don't put your pension plan in it.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 21839
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:30 pm

here is my problem, stepping back from the particlure product they are selling. From a "blue widget" stand point, they seem to have an incredible ability to deploy and burn cash on new projects and directions suddendly without warning, and without pausing to consolidate or refine what is working and get some solid financial footing under them.

That "IT" style of "release soon and often" mentality works in software development; but has the potential to crash the entire company in the context of manufacturing. It is like driving the Titanic like it was, well, a Tesla. Eventually you are not going to be able to make the turn in time to miss the ice berg; and there is no airbag to cushion the blow when it happens.

The most profitiable cars, and car companies, tend to run a model for a decade or more to recoupe their investment in a model; often without much updating or very limited superficial changes that were often already designed in to the car years before (e.g. tweaking the power on the engine for a few more horses).

if you look at the big automakers, they all have a flop or two in their linup at any given moment; offset with the ones that are working and new releases coming out. they hedge their bets carefully over a decade or more.

so, what is the mote or margin of error that Tesla has got to work with, when it might not be clear for another decade that what they have is working?
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

at46
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1174
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:13 pm

Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:55 pm

Britkid wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:54 pm

This post explains why Tesla will change the world, and it's good, but its very very very long. An hour or two to read and digest it? Maybe? Scroll all the way to the bottom to check length before deciding if it's worth reading.
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesl ... -life.html
Come on, that article is from 2015. Today it's more about what Tesla will do for China's goal of creating maximum backing for the yuan to be able to move out of the oil-backed US dollar system and create its own world hegemony.

China using EVs to attain that goal is just one of the many avenues it is pursuing. Using speed freaks, show-offs and assorted useful eco-idiots only serves to minimize the cost.

Chile can do a lot for its environment, economy and people by simply switching to LPG vehicles for all its public, cargo and personal transportation. The technology is well-developed, cheap and simple enough to be 100% domestic while LPG can be purchased from many countries around the world. The cost savings are enormous because LPG greatly extends vehicle life, reduces maintenance costs and environmental impact.

Britkid
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2080
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:59 pm
Location: Talagante area, Chile
Contact:

Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:33 pm

Ending oil takes power away from the Middle East and Russia. Not necessarily a bad thing given some of their governments. I am concerned about China but I don't see that the EV trend puts that much power to China.

I don't know much about LPG but I got this from a quick google:

"Based on independent testing of nearly 9,000 cars from the EU that were manufactured recently and that have state-of-the-art pollution controls, those that run on LPG produce 11% less CO2 in operation and about 15% less from ‘well to wheel’, i.e. over the entire fuel supply chain than identical cars run on petrol." Source: https://www.drivelpg.co.uk/about-autoga ... -benefits/

"Diesel CO2 emissions are 29.2% higher than LPG whilst petrol is 26.8% higher than LPG." Source: http://www.unigas.com.au/why-autogas-is ... vironment/

So, we're looking at 10%-30% less CO2 from LPG.

But we need to cut CO2 70-90% across all sectors to avoid catastrophic global warming above 2C, according to scientists and policy experts. And this is in fact what governments have already agreed to (at least in theory).

Hybrid cars can make about a 40% cut, maybe 50% with the Prius from 2016 onwards.
Electric cars in Chile can get a 60-75% cut of CO2 per mile.
It's much better than LPG.
The remaining difference we'll have to try and get by reducing the miles we drive, tree planting in the tropics to compensate etc.

LPG doesn't work in the short term as an environmental strategy because it's not here now. And it doesn't work long term because electric cars will get steadily better, cheaper (and electric grids decarbonize) in next 10-20 years.

The article from 2015 is still correct in the fundamentals.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 21839
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:24 pm

a car like this, if they can get the production right, 350 miles range, at 8,900 to 11,600 dollars. great wall has the resources to do it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/19/great-w ... nghai.html
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

at46
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1174
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:13 pm

Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:48 pm

Britkid wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:33 pm
Ending oil takes power away from the Middle East and Russia. Not necessarily a bad thing given some of their governments. I am concerned about China but I don't see that the EV trend puts that much power to China.
It's not about ending oil necessarily. Jet fuel will probably always come from oil, and people like to fly. Oil is just going to be an expensive raw material for the chemical industry instead of being burned by land whales driving to the nearest dollar store.

EVs are one of the ways in which China will destroy the US oil-backed dollar hegemony. Only China has the capacity to do it, and it is doing it (with a little help from its friends in Russia and England) by concentrating all production and recycling of EVs and batteries in China.
Britkid wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:33 pm
"Based on independent testing of nearly 9,000 cars from the EU that were manufactured recently and that have state-of-the-art pollution controls, those that run on LPG produce 11% less CO2 in operation and about 15% less from ‘well to wheel’, i.e. over the entire fuel supply chain than identical cars run on petrol." Source: https://www.drivelpg.co.uk/about-autoga ... -benefits/

"Diesel CO2 emissions are 29.2% higher than LPG whilst petrol is 26.8% higher than LPG." Source: http://www.unigas.com.au/why-autogas-is ... vironment/

So, we're looking at 10%-30% less CO2 from LPG.
No, we're not. LPG greatly reduces engine wear because of lower energy density and less corrosion. Engines also require fewer oil changes on LPG. Thus we're looking at much greater overall CO2 emission reduction. We'll just have to ask the Germans or the Russians what the actual numbers are. One thing you can't say about them is that they're stupid, and both Germany and Russia are switching to LPG, as an interim step towards hydrogen power.

I think the future is with the hydrogen economy driven by nuclear. In that scenario China with its EVs today is only doing the dirty work of destroying the stale US hegemony in order to clear the field.

LPG is already here in Chile on a massive scale - look out the window at all the Gasco trucks selling gas bottles. All that's necessary is to refit the vehicles and upgrade gas stations to sell LPG. The beauty of it is that the equipment can be manufactured here and refitting work done by Chileans as well, stimulating the economy while reducing people's fuel costs and helping the environment.

at46
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1174
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:13 pm

Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:34 pm

Another day, another Tesla catches fire - seemingly on its own when parked
https://electrek.co/2019/04/21/tesla-bu ... mes-video/

Britkid
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2080
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:59 pm
Location: Talagante area, Chile
Contact:

Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:09 pm

at46 wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:34 pm
Another day, another Tesla catches fire - seemingly on its own when parked
https://electrek.co/2019/04/21/tesla-bu ... mes-video/
As I have said before (so I will quote), "174,000 vehicle fires were reported in the United States in 2015, the most recent year for which statistics are available from the National Fire Protection Association. That's one fire every 3 minutes."

As I also said before, "Tesla claims that the 300,000 Teslas on the road have been driven a total of 7.5 billion miles, and about 40 fires have been reported. That works out to five fires for every billion miles traveled, compared to a rate of 55 fires per billion miles traveled in gasoline cars. So Tesla claims that fires are 10 times more likely for petrol cars than Teslas. No-one else has produced any statistics to counter this."

It seems to me that electric cars kill less people per kilometre on average (when pollution and climate change are considered) than petrol/diesel/LPG, and therefore, what is the point on focusing on isolated incidents?

I just did a very quick and rough back of the envelope calculation and gas/diesel/LPG fossil fuel cars possibly kill (globally) hundreds or thousands of people per day from climate change and pollution.

Britkid
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2080
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:59 pm
Location: Talagante area, Chile
Contact:

Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:35 pm

Oil - I was a bit careless when I said "ending oil". I do agree that we need oil for flying - there is no way to replace it for long distance, large planes within a short time. However, I think humanity needs to reduce our flights by a large amount. Still - oil is also used to make some useful materials. I think we would should reduce oil a large amount but not close to 100%. Maybe 30%/50%/70% less in 10/20/30 years.

LPG: Oil changes/wear and tear is not going to make much difference to the CO2 numbers. You have got to face facts, electric cars are clearly superior to LPG for global warming.

LPG in Chile: The thing is though, electric car charging network in Chile already exists in Region Metroplitana and will probably exist nationally in about 1-3 years. So, until such time as there is an LPG charging network in place, talk of LPG is just delaying action on climate change. Hybrids, electrics, having a smaller car, living car free, and doing less miles are the only five real options today for becoming more ecological. And action is needed now.

Hydrogen economy driven by nuclear is an idea worth considering but we certainly won't have such an economy in Chile or globally in the 2020s so for the next 10 years as a minimum we need to look at transitioning to hybrid and electric cars as much as possible for now.

at46
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1174
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:13 pm

Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:58 am

Britkid wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:35 pm
LPG: Oil changes/wear and tear is not going to make much difference to the CO2 numbers. You have got to face facts, electric cars are clearly superior to LPG for global warming.
I don't know if anybody has ever done an in-depth and honest analysis of the actual cost of electric cars and their CO2 emissions - from design and development to manufacture, operation, maintenance and recycling.

My guess is that as of today, April 21st 2019, that cost per unit is higher, in fact, much, much higher than the cost of a comparable internal combustion vehicle. Simply because all the internal combustion infrastructure is already here while the electrical infrastructure has to be created from scratch. And so, if you want to be more eco-friendly today, you should just stick with your internal combustion vehicle (although your SUV has to go coz it just kills your eco cred).

Another guess is that in the future that overall cost of EVs will remain high, with a potential catastrophic increase due to the depletion of rare earth materials and/or their soaring costs as well as battery recycling issues. Let us not forget that, while batteries have been around for a long time, they've never been recycled en masse. We're facing a completely new technological challenge here, with an as yet unknown cost. Actually, I should say, the Chinese are facing that challenge, not us here in Chile, nor the North Americans, at least judging from the complete lack of discussion of this most important issue and the apparent lack of recycling infrastructure.
Britkid wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:35 pm
LPG in Chile: The thing is though, electric car charging network in Chile already exists in Region Metroplitana and will probably exist nationally in about 1-3 years. So, until such time as there is an LPG charging network in place, talk of LPG is just delaying action on climate change.
That's a totally myopic view - even if every gas station in Chile today had operational electrical chargers, there are simply no electrical cars to charge. And whatever EV are coming in here, they're too expensive for the average Chilean. The situation with LPG is the complete reverse - pretty much all of the internal combustion vehicles on public roads in Chile today can be converted to LPG quickly and cheaply and all of the gas stations upgraded to sell LPG. The technology is widely used in Brazil and Argentina, it's cheap, can be made locally and will have a tremendous effect in reducing pollution here within the shortest time and with the least amount of investment.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 21839
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:14 am

natural gas and similar is not some wonder drug. trading co2 emissions for methane

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science- ... 180947838/

produces methane, that traps 70 times more heat than co2; but breaks down in around 10 years. right now that is 10 years too late.

big improvements over coal, and would probably be a better solution if it was 1901; but not as "clean" as it is sold as.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

Britkid
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2080
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:59 pm
Location: Talagante area, Chile
Contact:

Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:45 am

bert.douglas wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:28 am
Britkid wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:35 pm
... You have got to face facts, electric cars are clearly superior to LPG for global warming.
Electric cars are primarily a tool used by rich liberals to signal their environmental virtue. They don't actually help the environment.

First, most of the power for electric cars comes from burning coal. So you don't have zero emissions, you are just moving the location of the emissions. It is really difficult to compare the whole system energy chain to see how much CO2 is saved by the use of an electric car (vs an LPG car), if any. I think it is marginal. Perhaps 10 percent at best. Maybe even negative.

Second, you have to consider the environmental damage from manufacturing the electric car. Have you seen those ugly rare earth mines in China? Not only is there a lot of toxic waste, but it is hugely energy intensive. The amount of CO2 emitted to make the battery may exceed the CO2 saved over the life of the car.
Perhaps you're trolling me but I'll bite in order to make sure these myths are killed off once and for all.

It is clear that manufacturing of any type of car is a small proportion of total lifetime CO2, the majority is in driving. Articles and calculations are available online, and are all in agreement with that basic point.

Electric cars clearly reduce CO2 per mile for a given weight of car in Chile, most states in the US, most of Western Europe, and most of the world, even after manufacturing is taken into account.

I have in the past put actual calculation on this forum (viewtopic.php?t=16750, page 1) that actually calculate electric cars' lower rates of CO2 for Chile based on the carbon intensity of Chile's electricity. No-one has posted any figures or calculations to dispute this, and no-one will because it can't be done. Those observing this discussion will note that those who argue otherwise never post any calculations or credible sources, but just ignore my calculations and continue to argue against them. I think people are able to draw their own conclusions.

Saying that electric cars don't help on climate change because of coal is oil company propaganda that has been debunked and proven conclusively wrong over and over again. All calculations prove this, the consensus was established and articles that say otherwise usually have no data.

Why is this?

1. Electricity grids are actually made up of a mix of coal, other fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables, therefore the carbon per unit energy is a mixture, so it's lower. Saying that "most" electric car emissions are from coal is factually inaccurate without doubt, especially when we consider that a good portion of the world's electric cars are in Scandinavia and California where there is hardly any coal at all.

2. Large power stations convert fuel to (electrical) energy at a MUCH higher rate of efficiency than a petrol car. This is the reason why it is better for CO2 emissions to have an electric car even in a country with 100% fossil fuels.

Also, remember emissions for petrol and diesel cars are being spewed out into the streets, into our homes, into our schools, into our parks. The much smaller pollution associated with electric cars is coming out of some power plant often far away from city centres.

It's also a disingenuous argument to mention environmental damage from mining related to electric cars without talking about the much worse damage caused to environments when oil comes out of the ground, and that's before we even mention oil spills. I don't recall ever turning on the news and seeing that lithium was covering birds and poisoning the seas and washing up on shores.

Post Reply