electric vehicles in chile

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:32 am

i still think the gains climate wise and economically in EV tech is not in private cars. they are rich people's toys, and will be for decades.

It will be public transportation and industrial use. everything from garbage trucks and buses to big construction equipment, mines, etc. the commercial fleets. especialy fleets that have well defined routines and routes, like mines, ports, etc.

I also think self-driving tech will be best put to use in those situations. i could totally see for instance by the end of the next decade mines that are all eletric vehicals, and all fully automated. It is also where there is the most money to pay for the early development.

think about a routine at a mine that takes say 20 people now, each earing $60,000+ a year, plus massive amounts of diesel, in vehicles that costs millions, in an environment that is just plane dangerious for humans, being automated down to one or two people maneging the entire system, all driven by real bottom line cost savings.
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:14 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:32 am

think about a routine at a mine that takes say 20 people now, each earing $60,000+ a year, plus massive amounts of diesel, in vehicles that costs millions, in an environment that is just plane dangerious for humans, being automated down to one or two people maneging the entire system, all driven by real bottom line cost savings.
It's been going on for good 10-15 years already. A friend in Canada worked for an IT company that installed GPS trackers on excavator arms to optimize electricity consumption. When that arm lifts many tons of material per go, every extra inch of travel costs real money. They worked with companies all around the world, too, with the data collected and analyzed in real time, to be able to pinpoint underperforming human operators and send them for retraining.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Julito » Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:40 pm

A good example. Rio Tinto Western Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwrOHFHS-ms

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:48 pm

at46 wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:10 pm
Interesting article. Tesla's Long-Range Model 3 Has A Heavier CO2 Footprint Than Toyota's Camry Hybrid https://seekingalpha.com/article/425499 ... block=true
Since this is an article about hybrid vs electric. It certainly doesn’t dispute the fact that electric cars are better for the environment than regular petrol or diesel.

Second, the person has declared at the end of the article that they are short on Tesla, meaning they will make money if Tesla’s stock goes down. Clearly, this article has been written for the purpose of driving down Tesla’s stock price (seeking alpha is basically for investors), so it may be biased.

Electric cars are easily better for the environment than hybrids if charged from a home solar panel or if you signed up to a 100% renewable supplier (like Ecotricity in the UK, which uses its profits to build more of its own wind turbines, and has a charging network as well as electricity to the home). This is ignored by the article.

The author of the seeking alpha comes to the amazing conclusion that all electric car charging is “marginal (extra) demand” and therefore bases his calculations on the assumption, that since electric cars are adding the extra to the grid, the grid will have to respond by using fossil fuels that can respond quickly to demand and therefore assumes that all electric cars are powered by 100% fossil fuels!! This is nonsense. There is no reason to define electric cars as marginal demand. People don’t suddenly and unexpectedly start charging electric cars all at once – they charge them predictably at work, when they get home in the evening after work, or overnight, or randomly whenever. It makes far more sense to calculate the CO2 based on average carbon grid intensity – based on a mixture of what’s used.

I also note that this wrong assumption – which is absolutely critical to the conclusion – is buried on page 5 and 6 and not mentioned at all in the summary on the first page. I’d say this is a deliberate strategy to make it so that a lot of people just remember the article’s headline and summary, even though they didn’t read the article and see it was based on a scam of an argument.

The author concludes by saying “The analysis in this article probably won't have an immediate impact on Tesla's stock price because popular myths are macro issues that take time to percolate through the collective consciousness. It may, however, impact politicians who need to decide whether it makes sense to spend taxpayer money to subsidize” Let me translate that for you “Investors are too smart to fall for the obvious BS in this article, but politicians are not.” He is trying to influence the politicians using the tried and tested method of throwing out complex arguments that muddy the waters and make it hard to see clearly; the same strategies that were once used to deny climate change altogether. If people can influence politicians not to provide subsidies for Tesla, they could indirectly influence the share price.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:18 pm

Britkid wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:48 pm
at46 wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:10 pm
Interesting article. Tesla's Long-Range Model 3 Has A Heavier CO2 Footprint Than Toyota's Camry Hybrid https://seekingalpha.com/article/425499 ... block=true
Since this is an article about hybrid vs electric. It certainly doesn’t dispute the fact that electric cars are better for the environment than regular petrol or diesel.
Yep, that's exactly what he disputes. Electric cars are worse for the environment, and he pretty much hits every nail on the head with his arguments.

Have you overlooked the second link I posted about Germany passing electric in favor of LPG vehicles? Why do you think that is?

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:19 pm

at46 wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:10 pm
Electric vehicles will barely help cut CO2 emissions in Germany over the coming years, as the introduction of electric vehicles does not necessarily lead to a reduction in CO2 emissions from road traffic. Natural gas combustion engines are the ideal technology for transitioning to vehicles powered by hydrogen or “green” methane in the long term.
http://www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/pres ... autos.html
"Green" methane, there's a contradiction in terms if ever I heard one. Methane is a very potent greenhouse gas (worse than CO2) so you better be careful that nothing leaks when you burn it. And what do you get when you burn methane - CO2. Trying to do green methane is possible but it's the kind of thing that's risky and you find out years later was all a scam. Give me a windmill or a solar panel any day. No-one is ever going to discover years later that windmills were actually leaking methane into the atmosphere.

On the specific case of Germany, it's electricity grid is about 0.6 kgCO2/kWH which is a bit worse than Chile, so it's not the best place for electric cars. However, I would still disagree with the finding that they will "barely" cut CO2 emissions, even in Germany an electric vehicle will probably cut CO2 quite a lot, perhaps by half or more I think per mile driven vs petrol/diesel.

It depends a bit on where you live. Frankfurt and Munich have energy grids independent from the national grid and are moving to renewables more aggressively.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:29 am

that article is b.s., but shorting Tesla is still probably not a bad strategy.

there are over 480 EV companies in china right now. most of them will probably not be around in a year. that however is sort of a natural evolution with new tech. same thing happened with the first gas cars, motor cycles, computers, cell phones. how many of you still have a palm or a blackberry? how about a laptop or desktop made by IBM (not lenova)?

that is why i am not putting any money in to any specific car company. the materials they all need, like lithium, rare earth, copper, fine; and i am more than willing to adjust as the market shifts to other materials and tech; but, the manufacturers will come and go. In 10 years, the auto industry will be radically diffrent from today.

I highly doubt the likes of ford or GM, or any legacy american carwill be in in the game. they have been strugling for 30 years just to integrate basic computers in to cars correctly.

that said, what the market is still missing, in spite of teslas hype, is a really cheap "people's" EV. the volkswagon bug of EV. Srangly vw has bluntly stated they won't build one, even though there is an obvious demand for an extrodinarily simple and cheap EV.

Even tesla is making the mistake of building none essential tech garbage in to their cars like the self-driving features, "pet mode", etc. Then they wonder why they can not get the price down, or they have reliability issues, production issues.
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:54 pm

Agree with you on the need for cheaper electric cars.

I would agree with your point if we were talking about Tesla 5 years ago, or some less established start up today. But investing on Tesla, although still risky today, may not be the total crap shoot it was a few years ago.

Lithium is in some ways a more sensible and solid bet, but Tesla may still have more upside if you're willing to take the risk on a company whose CEO has done things like randomly accused someone of being a paedophile on twitter and told investors to stop asking boneheaded questions on a live earnings call and then took like 10 questions from a random youtube blogger instead, and also getting into trouble with the authorities for making a tweet that could have influenced the share price: i.e. "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured." There was later some debate about how secured the funding really was. So Musk himself is something of a wild card with a dark side as well as a bit of a charismatic genius.

This post explains why Tesla will change the world, and it's good, but its very very very long. An hour or two to read and digest it? Maybe? Scroll all the way to the bottom to check length before deciding if it's worth reading.
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesl ... -life.html

Anyway, point is Tesla's 2018 revenue was $21.46 billion. This isn't just some startup any more, this is a serious company now. I just had a look and I was surprised to find that its market capitalization (the total value resulting from price of each share x number of shares) is $47.2 billion, for a price to sales ratio of 2.2 (market capitalization vs revenue). That surprises me. I would have thought that investors would have slammed the p/s ratio up to 5 or 10 for a company with such high future potential. The p/s ratio was around 5 or 6 as recently as 2017, and has even been at around 10 or 20 years and years ago. So 2.2 looks quite sane indeed for a company still in early growth phase.

Profitability remains a concern. At the moment, the company is close to breaking even (i.e. its profits/losses are a small fraction of its revenue). Probably, it will steadily move towards low but consistent profitability in my view. Shipment volumes are a concern. They just don't seem to be able to produce cars at the same rate as other companies yet.

The other wildcard is here is do we get Trump in 2020 and Republican congress/senate (meaning no subsidies for Tesla) or do we get increasingly left wing democrats with a green new deal (which could mean subsidies).

I think Tesla is actually worth a look for investors willing to risk losing. Just don't put your pension plan in it.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:30 pm

here is my problem, stepping back from the particlure product they are selling. From a "blue widget" stand point, they seem to have an incredible ability to deploy and burn cash on new projects and directions suddendly without warning, and without pausing to consolidate or refine what is working and get some solid financial footing under them.

That "IT" style of "release soon and often" mentality works in software development; but has the potential to crash the entire company in the context of manufacturing. It is like driving the Titanic like it was, well, a Tesla. Eventually you are not going to be able to make the turn in time to miss the ice berg; and there is no airbag to cushion the blow when it happens.

The most profitiable cars, and car companies, tend to run a model for a decade or more to recoupe their investment in a model; often without much updating or very limited superficial changes that were often already designed in to the car years before (e.g. tweaking the power on the engine for a few more horses).

if you look at the big automakers, they all have a flop or two in their linup at any given moment; offset with the ones that are working and new releases coming out. they hedge their bets carefully over a decade or more.

so, what is the mote or margin of error that Tesla has got to work with, when it might not be clear for another decade that what they have is working?
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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by at46 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:55 pm

Britkid wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:54 pm

This post explains why Tesla will change the world, and it's good, but its very very very long. An hour or two to read and digest it? Maybe? Scroll all the way to the bottom to check length before deciding if it's worth reading.
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesl ... -life.html
Come on, that article is from 2015. Today it's more about what Tesla will do for China's goal of creating maximum backing for the yuan to be able to move out of the oil-backed US dollar system and create its own world hegemony.

China using EVs to attain that goal is just one of the many avenues it is pursuing. Using speed freaks, show-offs and assorted useful eco-idiots only serves to minimize the cost.

Chile can do a lot for its environment, economy and people by simply switching to LPG vehicles for all its public, cargo and personal transportation. The technology is well-developed, cheap and simple enough to be 100% domestic while LPG can be purchased from many countries around the world. The cost savings are enormous because LPG greatly extends vehicle life, reduces maintenance costs and environmental impact.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by Britkid » Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:33 pm

Ending oil takes power away from the Middle East and Russia. Not necessarily a bad thing given some of their governments. I am concerned about China but I don't see that the EV trend puts that much power to China.

I don't know much about LPG but I got this from a quick google:

"Based on independent testing of nearly 9,000 cars from the EU that were manufactured recently and that have state-of-the-art pollution controls, those that run on LPG produce 11% less CO2 in operation and about 15% less from ‘well to wheel’, i.e. over the entire fuel supply chain than identical cars run on petrol." Source: https://www.drivelpg.co.uk/about-autoga ... -benefits/

"Diesel CO2 emissions are 29.2% higher than LPG whilst petrol is 26.8% higher than LPG." Source: http://www.unigas.com.au/why-autogas-is ... vironment/

So, we're looking at 10%-30% less CO2 from LPG.

But we need to cut CO2 70-90% across all sectors to avoid catastrophic global warming above 2C, according to scientists and policy experts. And this is in fact what governments have already agreed to (at least in theory).

Hybrid cars can make about a 40% cut, maybe 50% with the Prius from 2016 onwards.
Electric cars in Chile can get a 60-75% cut of CO2 per mile.
It's much better than LPG.
The remaining difference we'll have to try and get by reducing the miles we drive, tree planting in the tropics to compensate etc.

LPG doesn't work in the short term as an environmental strategy because it's not here now. And it doesn't work long term because electric cars will get steadily better, cheaper (and electric grids decarbonize) in next 10-20 years.

The article from 2015 is still correct in the fundamentals.

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Re: electric vehicles in chile

Post by admin » Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:24 pm

a car like this, if they can get the production right, 350 miles range, at 8,900 to 11,600 dollars. great wall has the resources to do it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/19/great-w ... nghai.html
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