Electric Cars in Chile

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fraggle092
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Re: Electric Cars in Chile

Post by fraggle092 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:19 pm

Lot of misconceptions here.To pick up on just a couple of points:
On coal-fired power stations:
...we should keep a few open and just not use them except in very occassional situations, say if there happens to be very low wind and sun power, and at the same time unusual high demand....
Doesn't work like that. A coal-fired generating plant isn't a light bulb, you can't just switch it on and off as needed.
And running them in a load-following mode adds to their wear and tear, already the big power operators are complaining.
The alternative is building more CCGT plants, running on expensive imported gas.

You seem to assume that a national electricity grid could run on 100% renewables.
This has never been achieved anywhere in the world. In fact baseline generation using conventional power sources is an absolute necessity to maintain a stable grid, be it from hydro, ff, or even nuclear power sources. That's where the hypothetical 50% decarbonization mentioned originally comes from.

Two more German examples. If the Germans can't get it right, who do you think can?...Chile?

From 2012:
.....The more a country depends on such sources of energy, the more there will arise – as Germany is discovering – two massive technical problems. One is that it becomes incredibly difficult to maintain a consistent supply of power to the grid, when that wildly fluctuating renewable output has to be balanced by input from conventional power stations. The other is that, to keep that back-up constantly available can require fossil-fuel power plants to run much of the time very inefficiently and expensively (incidentally chucking out so much more “carbon” than normal that it negates any supposed CO2 savings from the wind).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/955 ... he-UK.html

And from 2018:
The expenditure for the ecological restructuring of the energy supply is in a “blatant disproportion to the hitherto poor yield”, said President of the Court of Audit Kay Scheller in Berlin: “The Federal Government is at risk to fail with its once in a generation project of the Energiewende”.
https://www.thegwpf.com/germany-risks-c ... ice-warns/
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41southchile
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Re: Electric Cars in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:17 pm

Britkid wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:13 pm
41southchile wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:33 pm

Apparantly there is a plan to have all charging stations cities between stgo and puerto montt in the very near future. I agree in theory with most of what you say, but I am not sure about Chiloe, it seems hard to justify, yes there are rich people that have property there that might spend the summer down there, or own land for tax purposes, but the average Chilote can barely afford a rusty old LUV pick up that belches out toxic emmsiions, its a big jump up to an electric car from that. They are a special breed in Chiloe, the have a very "poor me", victim mentality down there (apparantly the government doesnt give them enough things) they would probably expect the government to give them an electric car and a bono to go with it, thats a huge generalisation I know but most things are.
The charging stations in Chiloe would be to help with tourism there rather than local people to use. Imagine you are considering buying an electric car in Santiago but you think to yourself hmm but what if I want to drive to Chiloe for holiday one day. You don't want someone not buying an electric car because they might want a holiday in Chiloe. If the network covers Chiloe (south) and Valle Elqui (north), then it covers anywhere that a person would reasonably be expected to drive on holiday. If you want to go much further south or north, you are going fly.

I am not suggesting poor people in Chiloe should buy electric cars for now, they can't afford it.

In any case Chiloe is not that important, I'd settle for Puerto Montt for now.

What do you know about the plan of charging stations Santiago to Puerto Montt? Any sources you can share, government statements, or just rumours?
Heard the plan to have charging stations between stgo and puerto montt from the seremi de energia in Los Lagos Tomas Bollinger Folkerts http://www.energia.gob.cl/tu-region/region-de-los-lagos

I am not saying its a bad idea to put them in Chiloe, but there are dozens of other priorities that need doing to increase tourism on chiloe (if thats what they want to do), rather than elctric charging stations for tourists, if its privately funded I have no problem, but I dont really think its a good use of resources by the state thats for sure, although in saying that there are so many hair brainned schemes and subsidies that they seem to waste money on in Chile, sure why not.
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at46
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Re: Electric Cars in Chile

Post by at46 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:05 pm

I'm sorry, but all this talk about electric cars for personal transportation in Chile is completely misplaced and irrelevant, imho. The only three real burning ecological issues in this country are industrial/agro pollution, wood-burning for heat in winter and traffic pollution in Santiago. The most bang for the buck can be achieved in Santiago by getting people out of cars and into the metro, wired/battery electric buses/trams and taxis.

The issue with battery electric cars for personal transportation is that not only grid-related problems have never been resolved anywhere yet, but they're also extremely dangerous when fully charged (they explode into an extremely high temperature fireball and so fast you have no chance of getting out).

Moreover, they use a large amount of rare earth materials which are produced only in China (apparently, there are also some huge deposits in North Korea, which casts the recent pacification and Musk's move to China in a completely different light).

China not only makes batteries but also processes your batteries once they've been used up. And, therefore, the only viable way of electrifying personal mobility in Santiago is to go with a monster company like BYD which would supply and maintain the buses and taxis while the government imposes huge costs on fossil fuel personal vehicles.

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41southchile
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Re: Electric Cars in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:13 pm

at46 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:05 pm
I'm sorry, but all this talk about electric cars for personal transportation in Chile is completely misplaced and irrelevant, imho. The only three real burning ecological issues in this country are industrial/agro pollution, wood-burning for heat in winter and traffic pollution in Santiago. The most bang for the buck can be achieved in Santiago by getting people out of cars and into the metro, wired/battery electric buses/trams and taxis.

The issue with battery electric cars for personal transportation is that not only grid-related problems have never been resolved anywhere yet, but they're also extremely dangerous when fully charged (they explode into an extremely high temperature fireball and so fast you have no chance of getting out).

Moreover, they use a large amount of rare earth materials which are produced only in China (apparently, there are also some huge deposits in North Korea, which casts the recent pacification and Musk's move to China in a completely different light).

China not only makes batteries but also processes your batteries once they've been used up. And, therefore, the only viable way of electrifying personal mobility in Santiago is to go with a monster company like BYD which would supply and maintain the buses and taxis while the government imposes huge costs on fossil fuel personal vehicles.
Another question I have also wondered is, how long do those batteries last in electric cars, and I imagine they are expensive to replace, so what happens when your electric car is say 5 years old ? , there is virtually no resale value as the battery is shot, (just like cell phones have a tendency to do with battery life) or am I missing something ?

Interesting point about China, has anyone elsse been following the saga of the Chinese lithium company buying into SQM?, so basically China is going to have a stake in the big three worldwide Lithium producers, there is an interesting spiel by that guy Thomas (surname begins with M, but Ive temporaraly forgotten, he is on biobio) on youtube, Ill try and find the link, he explains it very well, and how that got debated in September when nobody was paying attention in Chile
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fraggle092
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Re: Electric Cars in Chile

Post by fraggle092 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:15 pm

at46 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:05 pm
...wood-burning for heat in winter....
An unintended result of the German Energiewende: Increased contamination from wood-burning stoves (and wood theft). No, that will never happen in Chile, they care too much for the environment....

Screenshot-2018-10-18 Woodland Heists Rising Energy Costs Drive Up Forest Thievery - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International(2).jpg
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41southchile
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Re: Electric Cars in Chile

Post by 41southchile » Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:15 pm

Here it is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ibVPHazop8
RE China and Lithium
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Britkid
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Re: Electric Cars in Chile

Post by Britkid » Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:38 pm

at46 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:05 pm
The issue with battery electric cars for personal transportation is that not only grid-related problems have never been resolved anywhere yet, but they're also extremely dangerous when fully charged (they explode into an extremely high temperature fireball and so fast you have no chance of getting out).
What do you mean grid related problems have never been resolved. That doesn't look right at all. Do you mean no countries have a large enough network of charging points, or no countries have enough renewable energy in the electricity mix? Either way it's not really true, in any cases these are hardly impossible problems. Just things that will take time.

But petrol is incredibly flammable. Easily catches fire. In fact, in a way, it is on fire constantly as you drive along. I saw online that about 174,000 vehicle fires were reported in the United States in 2015, the most recent year for which statistics are available from the National Fire Protection Association. That's one fire every 3 minutes. Statistically speaking, there is probably a petrol car on fire in the US right this second.

Meanwhile, 3 million electric cars have been sold and there have been a handful of incidents. Just that Tesla on fire is newsworthy. Petrol car on fire isn't newsworthy because it's so common.

Tesla claims that the 300,000 Teslas on the road have been driven a total of 7.5 billion miles, and about 40 fires have been reported. That works out to five fires for every billion miles traveled, compared to a rate of 55 fires per billion miles traveled in gasoline cars. So Tesla claims that fires are 10 times more likely for petrol cars than Teslas. No-one else has produced any statistics to counter this. This stat may not be scalable to all electric cars produced now or in the future given the sample size and differences in electric vehicles.

Electric cars are pretty new so they may get better at preventing fires, or improve in other ways, but gas cars are a mature technology that will only make small steady improvements.

I get your point that electric car fires start faster and give less time to respond than a gas car (no idea if this is true or not, again where's the evidence), but there's just no data or evidence to say that they are more dangerous than petrol cars at this point, and probably never will be.

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Re: Electric Cars in Chile

Post by Britkid » Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:49 pm

41southchile wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:13 pm

Another question I have also wondered is, how long do those batteries last in electric cars, and I imagine they are expensive to replace, so what happens when your electric car is say 5 years old ? , there is virtually no resale value as the battery is shot, (just like cell phones have a tendency to do with battery life) or am I missing something ?
You are not missing anything. A disadvantage of electric cars is the high battery cost. You are doing OK for the first 5-8 years (probably in warranty or will be OK) but after that you will have to pay thousands of dollars/ millions of pesos for a new battery or the resale value will be a lot less. In a country like the US or UK where there is heavy depreciation the resale value of the car with an old battery could be very low indeed, but in Chile it will just take a few million off the resale value.

It's thought that batteries will last 10-20 years but the quality will reduce over time however this isn't really known for sure. You also have to factor in the possibility that battery costs may change a lot in the future. I think, if raw material prices remain steady, they will cut the prices a lot. This is often the case in these types of new technologies. Prices can be slashed 10-20% per year and if you buy an electric car today and need a new battery in 10 years it might be cheaper. Then again, maybe not.

You have to look at the whole lifecycle cost, remembering that you don't need to pay for as much servicing, maintenance, put oil in and so on in an electric car, because it has less parts, and also remembering for every year you own the car you will save the majority of the money you would otherwise have spent on petrol.

You can also lease/rent batteries.

It's also worth thinking about what guarantee there is that you will be able to get the same battery 10 years later, say if you bought a Tesla and it went out of business, what is the backup plan there. Worth looking at what each manufacturer claims on this point before buying. Or could you use another battery not specific to that vehicle? I'm not sure.

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Re: Electric Cars in Chile

Post by HybridAmbassador » Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:10 pm

Pure electric cars is a no go for me for the moment. Its usable driving range is very poor.. Most electric cars only manages perhaps 160 km or so at very anemic average speed. Tesla is much better with its range when starting with a fully charged battery and still only manages to perhaps less than 400 true kms... Also, I don't have the patience to plug it in while on the road and even at fast charging takes more than 40 minutes.

Now let talk the new battery technology being developed by guess who ? Toyota ! Solid state battery is the answer vs today's lithium battery and the lithiums takes too long for them to charge up and very limited driving range. The Toyota's Solid state battery, at present state, only taking 3~4 minutes to fully charge and that filling time is average petrol filling time as comparison. Toyota is aiming for its Solid state battery to be ready and affordable by 2020~2021 for sale world-wide. In meantime, the Hybrid vehicle and Toyota is the pioneer in that field so better off to stick with a very reliable 1 million unit sold since its inception of 2001. Toyota~Lexus Hybrids is the way, if you looking to going fully electrified...


Tesla is unveiling its much-awaited Model X Tuesday, which has many of the same features as the Model S with a few extra perks.
With the same range as the Model S (250 to 270 miles depending on the model bought) the Model X differs in its ability to seat more and all-wheel drive standard (as opposed to optionality).
Here is a list of todays electric carshttps://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-range-ver ... ion-2015-9
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Britkid
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Re: Electric Cars in Chile

Post by Britkid » Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:10 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:19 pm

Doesn't work like that. A coal-fired generating plant isn't a light bulb, you can't just switch it on and off as needed.
......
You seem to assume that a national electricity grid could run on 100% renewables.This has never been achieved anywhere in the world.
The Telegraph is an establishment-defending, right-wing bias, resistance to change organization that even ran articles denying climate change almost entirely in recent years! They are not to be trusted on environmental issues. Sure, there are some challenges but the Germans and Europe are doing fine with renewable energy. This scare story that renewables will never work to supply the whole grid has long since been proven wrong.

According to the wikipedia article, "List of countries by electricity production from renewable sources" Albania, Bhutan, Ethiopia, Iceland, Lesotho, Nepal and Paraguay were at 100% renewables by 2015, with Congo, Costa Rica, Malawi and Norway already at 99%. As for more major countries New Zealand is at 80%, Austria is at 80%, Brazil 75%, Colombia 69%, Denmark 69%, Switzerland 65%, Canada 65%, Sweden 65%. It can be done, and it has been done, successfully for many years, in many places.

Of course, hydro is a large portion of that renewables amount. Hydro is counted as renewable by me, by this article, and by most sources I've seen. Logically water is a renewable resource like wind and the sun, and a very low CO2 one. However perhaps you don't include hydro by the look of how you wrote your post, and that's why we disagree. Hydro's green credentials are more dubious than its renewable credentials because they can disrupt local communities and ecologies and tend to meet local opposition, so these things have to be carefully handled on a case by case basis. But it seems to me that hydro should be accepted, since it is the lesser evil in environmental impact compared to some things such as oil, coal and fracked gas. Just Chile needs to study the sites carefully and look at the overall impact.

I did over simplify on the coal plants. I may be wrong about that, it depends how much it costs to keep these plants idle. I don't really know if it's worth it or not for sure, but just an idea.

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Re: Electric Cars in Chile

Post by HybridAmbassador » Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:16 pm

[/quote]
Tesla claims that the 300,000 Teslas on the road.

[/quote] Now let get that figure correct. The guesstimate puts that number at roughly 200k...


It's estimated that a little more than 200,000 Tesla-made vehicles are on the road today. However, with the launch of the Model 3, that number could balloon to as many as three million vehicles on the road by 2023, Adam Jonas, a Morgan Stanley analyst, said in a note to clients Tuesday.
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Re: Electric Cars in Chile

Post by Britkid » Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:26 pm

Hybrid Ambadassador, in interview Shinzuo Abe, Toyota’s powertrain general manager said they "want to make solid-state batteries available in the early part of the 2020s decade. But in fact, that won’t be on a mass-production basis. We will begin with small-lot and trial production. We would never experiment on customers. Like you said, 2030 might be a more realistic timeframe.” https://insideevs.com/toyota-says-solid ... cade-away/

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