HIV in Chile

[41southchile]

Anyone new to Chile or those that live here too, just a reminder there has been an explosion of HIV cases in Chile since 2010, just heard something about on radio didn't really catch it all but have been hearing from reading about it for the last month or so. There is a report out in May 18 in situation, but they are expecting another 6000 cases for this year too, so that must be what they had last year. Infection rates are growing fastest in the world, faster than Africa! Haven't really heard much about why, is it just typical Chilean culture of not thinking about consequences of actions and everyone doing it without condoms and total lack of education ? Of course no doubt there will be those blaming immigrants, anyone know? Times don't really account for it all and all those immigrants are still flying under the radar Si wouldn't show up in stats. So yeah this has been increasing all decade, watch out out there, make sure you definitely take precautions.

[Britkid]

This came up on another thread last year and so I googled it and found out at the time that Chile has 0.3% AIDS, Haiti has 1.8 or 1.9%. Some countries in Africa are at about 20%. USA is at 0.6%. Can't remember the source of that - I'm just looking on the old thread.

Just checking it again and I find this citing CIA world factbook with similar but different numbers

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... lence_rate

Chile 0.5%
Haiti 2.1%
USA 2.4%

Even if the % growth is high, the absolute numbers are still low. If there was 1 person in Chile with AIDS last year, and 5 this year, that would be a spectacular 500% growth. You also have to look at the absolute numbers as well.

But note that my numbers are old (2016 data), so wouldn't account for any recent increases.

There may be a concern that it is low enough that it is under the radar.

[41southchile]

I see your point, although to be one of the few countries in the world where growth is increasing big time when everyone else is falling, is a trend that needs arresting.

[41southchile]

Also don't know about the absolute numbers part I guess would have to look it up, but 6000 new cases in one year seems a lot in absolute terms for a small population country like Chile

[frozen-north]

Also don't know about the absolute numbers part I guess would have to look it up, but 6000 new cases in one year seems a lot in absolute terms for a small population country like Chile

You might have seen something similar to this news report, but it seems that you are confused with the details. It does not say *6000 new cases in one year*, but *a total number of cases in Chile*.

According to the Carmen Castillo, the statistics indicate that by the end of this year there will be 5,200 HIV cases in Chile,

http://santiagotimes.cl/2017/08/10/chil ... ids-cases/

Britkid made a good point:

Even if the % growth is high, the absolute numbers are still low. If there was 1 person in Chile with AIDS last year, and 5 this year, that would be a spectacular 500% growth. You also have to look at the absolute numbers as well.

[41southchile]

Also don't know about the absolute numbers part I guess would have to look it up, but 6000 new cases in one year seems a lot in absolute terms for a small population country like Chile

You might have seen something similar to this news report, but it seems that you are confused with the details. It does not say *6000 new cases in one year*, but *a total number of cases in Chile*.

According to the Carmen Castillo, the statistics indicate that by the end of this year there will be 5,200 HIV cases in Chile,

http://santiagotimes.cl/2017/08/10/chil ... ids-cases/

Britkid made a good point:

Even if the % growth is high, the absolute numbers are still low. If there was 1 person in Chile with AIDS last year, and 5 this year, that would be a spectacular 500% growth. You also have to look at the absolute numbers as well.

Possibly as I said I didn't catch the full report on the radio while I was driving , but it sounded like they were expecting 6000 new cases in their informed which they will release in May, which yeah can't be right surely. But even 6000 is not 1. Either way it doesn't change the fact that Chile is bucking the trend and nunbers are increasing where everyone else in the world seems to be going the other way. Why?

[41southchile]

61000 cases in Chile not 6000 and it appears they are screening more which is what explains the 34% increase of new cases last year. So yeah in absolute terms it's not that insignificant if you think about it and if they are still unsure if exact figures as they have only recently started more screening then those numbers could be a lot higher in theory
http://www2.latercera.com/noticia/chile ... noamerica/

[41southchile]

Not sure where that Santiago times number is from but I heard there were 1500 or so just in Los Lagos region, so 5200 cases nationally makes no sense. Los Lagos is 1/16 aprox of population so extrapolate that out and it's mucho mas than 5200 in all of Chile.

[frozen-north]

Another quote of a lower number:

Las cifras sobre las que sustentó su denuncia Alfani corresponden a estadísticas pertenecientes al Ministerio de Salud (Minsal) y señalan que la cantidad de contagios de VIH en Chile entre 2010 y 2017 aumentó un 96%.

Así lo destaca la edición vespertina de La Segunda de este lunes, que señala que, en el período señalado, 2.968 personas contrajeron el virus en nuestro país, alcanzando un total nacional de 5.816.

http://www.chvnoticias.cl/nacional/sida ... 81752.html

I'll wait for more definitive numbers. It seems that there is some dispute about the way they arrived at the numbers.

[Britkid]

If it's 6000 or so that's 0.03% of the population.
60000 would be 0.3%.

Either way, it's lower than the numbers I've quoted above.

However the numbers I've quoted above from the CIA world factbook are probably an estimate of the total number of people with HIV/AIDS, including those not diagnosed.

If some of the numbers you quote are actual number of diagnosed cases, these could be lower, perhaps even much lower, than the actual number of people infected. Not everyone goes to the doctor in Chile as soon as they should, and you can have HIV/AIDS for years with only minor symptoms.

[Britkid]

I don't think the data we have in this article is good enough at this point to say clearly what the growth rate over time.

Keep in mind that a rapid growth rate would make for an interesting story for the media, whereas if it stays the same that would not be news. Therefore any reports of data points showing it's growing might be reported while studies showing no change might not get picked up in the media.

I'm not saying it's not growing, though. I'm just saying that I don't see clear evidence one way or the other.

[Maker42]

In the mid 1980's, there were two groups of people who substantially stood out in terms of infection rates: Gays and Haitians.

I remember a joke I heard once around the time. What's the worst part about getting AIDS? Trying to explain to your parents that you're Haitian.

I was a teenage boy. So of course the joke was hilarious.