2017 election round two: will you vote?

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will you vote in the second round?

Poll ended at Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:54 am

Voted in the first round, will vote in the second.
6
46%
Voted first round, not voting second
1
8%
Did not vote in the first, but will vote in the second.
5
38%
Qualify to vote, but don't
1
8%
 
Total votes: 13

frozen-north
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by frozen-north » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:51 am

admin wrote:
The No + AFP thing blew up, like the stupid left blows up every none-issue, back a year or two ago when it was revealed that some government employees that were retiring, and had stayed in the old pension system structure, were going to retire with like 10 million pesos a month in retirement payments. Good for them. Of course there was a lot of outrage, because at the same time, the AFP's were returning crap because the Chilean stock market had cratered for several years.

Some how, the administration, to cover their ass, managed to point the finger at the AFP system, rather than their own policies that crashed the stock market, for why everyone's AFP accounts were not performing.
'...it was revealed that some government employees that were retiring, and had stayed in the old pension system structure, were going to retire with like 10 million pesos a month in retirement payments. Good for them.'

What government employees? You seem to be confusing the army with somebody else. The only ones that stayed in the old system were the armed forces. The higher officers realized that the Pinochet move to impose the AFPs was not going to benefit those paying money into them, and refused to change.

4 julio, 2013

El panorama de millones de pensionados recibiendo 150 mil pesos a fin de mes ha encendido las alarmas de los chilenos. Principalmente al contrastarlo con las súper rentabilidades de las AFP que alcanzan los $ 2,5 millones de millones desde su creación en los 80.

El próximo 4 de noviembre, el sistema de Administradoras de Pensiones (AFP), celebrará sus 32 años de vida. Motivos para brindar hay suficientes, al menos para la industria, ya que se estima que durante estas tres décadas han obtenido una ganancia global cercana a los $ 2,5 millones de millones. Lo que equivale a unos US$ 5 mil millones. Es decir, un 2 % del PIB.

Actualmente las pensiones promedio no superan los $ 180.000 y existe gran incertidumbre sobre lo que puede suceder en el futuro, toda vez que el sistema actúa como una especie de casino mediante inversión especulativa y de alto riesgo para los cotizantes, pero muy poco riesgo para la administradora. El casino, o sea la AFP, siempre gana”.


http://www.elmostrador.cl/noticias/pais ... e-las-afp/
6 enero, 2017

Recuerda que en el informe de la Comisión Bravo se indicaba que, considerando las medianas, casi el 80% de las personas recibiría una pensión inferior al salario mínimo ($ 255 mil) y un 44% bajo la línea de la pobreza.

http://www.elmostrador.cl/mercados/2017 ... pensiones/

frozen-north
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by frozen-north » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:03 am

admin wrote:
Never mind, the stupid idea that there is a government managed collective retirement fund that is for "solidarity" that is not going to be raided to buy political favors and be a general slush fund. Never has happened. They are not proposing retirement savings. They are proposing a new tax on employers and employees. An additional 5%, if it just stops there; and, well, we all know it never stops there.

'a tax on employers and employees'? Yes, that was the original idea of the AFPs. That was the idea of Piñera's brother:

Su hermano, José Piñera, .... a su juicio las AFP jamás prometieron un nivel de pensión, sino que son solo “un buen mecanismo para acumular ahorro”.

http://radio.uchile.cl/2013/06/19/exper ... e-fracaso/

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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by admin » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:28 am

you can call it whatever you want. If the government spends the money on anyone or anything but the person that earned it, it is a tax. That is exactly how they are describing the "solidarity" fund. They want to reallocate some amount of money from one person to another.

Even if you don't want to call it a tax, do you think employers are inclined to raise a wages or hire a few extra workers, if they just got nailed with a 5% additional cost per worker?

Do you think the worker will feel all warm and fuzzy inside about that 5% that just disappeared in to a government account, that they may or may not see in 40+ years?

Probably not.

If your going to raise employment tax, just call it what it is.
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hlf2888
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by hlf2888 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:07 am


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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by admin » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:04 am

I guess pinera made a phone call to mujica, as they spent a lot of time together when they were in office. Mujica actuely said some nice things about pinera in his book.

http://www.pulso.cl/actualidad-politica ... sistencia/
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HybridAmbassador
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by HybridAmbassador » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:35 pm

admin wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:04 am
I guess pinera made a phone call to mujica, as they spent a lot of time together when they were in office. Mujica actuely said some nice things about pinera in his book.

http://www.pulso.cl/actualidad-politica ... sistencia/
Pinera and Mujica, what a contrast between the two. Mujica was the poorest president of any nation, it was said.
But in contrary, Pinera is one of wealthiest elite among Chilean industrialist.
HybridAmbassador. Toyota Hybrid system for helping climate change.

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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by admin » Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:00 pm

Well, here we go. Round two this weekend.

Even if you don't vote, you might want to stock up on some good stiff drinks for Sunday (alcohol sales are prohibited on election day in Chile).

I have no idea where anything stands right now, other than the turn-out trends for second round elections tend to favor Pinera.

On the other hand, as much as I think Guillier is a sock puppet, if all those young voters showed up for round two in sufficient numbers to actually put him over the top, I would have to say that would probably be a healthy sign that Chile's democracy is actually functioning correctly and there is a new generation that at least believes it works a little bit.

In what other country in the World does the possibility that a bunch of 20 somethings showing up to vote in any great numbers keep the politicians awake at night, and the political commentators guessing about the outcome of an election?

I can't think of any.
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by admin » Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:15 pm

By the way, for those that have not been following, the stock market has suffering from schizophrenia since the first round. Dropped like 12%+, recovered about half I think. Some days it is up 2% in the morning, looses half a percent by the afternoon, and closes out up 2% in evening. Builders have been getting slammed, and almost move in direct proportion to the min by min headlines regarding who is ahead in the elections. Think a few are down like 20% on the month. Some have had runs up for a day of 10%, then back down 5%, so on and on.

The Chilean IPSA has been the most volatile in Latin america recently, and the Chilean peso the most volatile currency.

I could see a good 15-20% sell-off if Pinera does not win. Perhaps another 10% over January (which is historically a down month anyway), then sometime towards the end of February, when the lights still turn on, the sun comes up, people come back from vacation, we will start getting the standard "good deals to be had in Chilean stocks, bla, bla, bla" articles circulating from the Muppet show brokers in New York and London.

If Pinera does win, Probably get a nice pop on the market. Perhaps 10% up, then everyone goes on Vacation in January, and the market ends-up pretty much where it is at until everyone comes back at the end of February and realizes the election did not mean squat to investors. People will still need houses, with or without pinera. The copper will still be in the ground. They still need to go to the grocery store. Kids need shoes. So on, and so on.
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by admin » Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:24 pm

In fact, as of today, the markets pretty much have returned to exactly where it was before the first round election. 2.25% today, 7.1% for the week. That 2.25% happened in like the last hour.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/mercados/bol ... 71137.html
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frozen-north
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by frozen-north » Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:36 pm

admin wrote:
I have no idea where anything stands right now, other than the turn-out trends for second round elections tend to favor Pinera.

On the other hand, as much as I think Guillier is a sock puppet, if all those young voters showed up for round two in sufficient numbers to actually put him over the top,
A while back you wrote:
Depending on a bunch of young hippy anarchest to get out of bed on election day is a big risk.

In fact it is why i think sanchez's numbers were missed by the poles. That far left young vote is flaky. They might show up at the last moment, and then a they might not. They might be all excited by a canidate, then a tweet storm and 30 mins later, they are all against that canidate.

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=14494&start=336#p179911
Just this week there was a public admission in the radio by a Calgary pollster that they had been 'embarrassed and humiliated' by their failure to predict the results and their insistence on being right.
Mainstreet admits 'big polling failures' after predicting Nenshi would lose Calgary election

Maggi believes his company's methodology isn't fundamentally flawed, but said it's investigating whether it failed to connect with some younger voters and those who don't speak English as their first language.

... the day before the election, Mainstreet executive vice-president David Valentin suggested political commentators in Calgary were biased.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/m ... -1.4360145

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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by Space Cat » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:22 pm

Sanchez votes are not only coming from far left (FA isn't fully far left either). These are anti-establishment voters, like Bernie's.

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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by admin » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:55 am

Hey we could have a suprise the other way too.

Just an informal survey of friends and family i was suprised at what happened in the first round.

A bunch of people that were hard core right voters, all pro- pinera or even kast, did things like went to the beach on the day of the election rather than voted. Now they seem pretty serious about voting this time around,
Because they dont want to leave it to chance that pinera might not win.

Among my lefty friends, that all went out and voted the first round, but most say they are not going to vote the second round. They say they voted a mix of sanchez and various others. None i have run in to said they voted for guillier, and in fact none have even mentioned his name other than in the context of voting against pinera.
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