2017 election round two: will you vote?

General topics related to Living in Chile

will you vote in the second round?

Poll ended at Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:54 am

Voted in the first round, will vote in the second.
6
46%
Voted first round, not voting second
1
8%
Did not vote in the first, but will vote in the second.
5
38%
Qualify to vote, but don't
1
8%
 
Total votes: 13

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fraggle092
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by fraggle092 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:20 pm

Please realize that these proposals you seem to all take so seriously are election promises. I already mentioned Bachelet's lame 20-20-20 hospital program (parts of which were initiated by Piñera btw)

Here, they make policy up as they go along. There is no longterm national plan because there is no national consensus on the direction Chile ought to be headed in. Government here is a bolsa de gatos,all political expediency, selfish sectarian and personal interests, and increasingly, corruption.

A classic example is the No+ AFP protests that suddenly went from being a non-issue to forming part of the election agendas.
The whole affair was instigated by the CUT and other leftist organizations, and this government deliberately chose to confuse a systematically orchestrated campaign with genuine public opinion in order to advance its own ends, as it did with the student protests several years ago. (As if a vast supply of Sociologists, Historians and Student Union leaders is really what this country needs)

Same thing happened with all the hot air generated by the much-debated Constitutional Reform discussion that fizzled out in the face of widespread public apathy. No wonder voter abstention is so high, and that politicians in general have such a low approval rating.

And perhaps that is why Chileans base their voting choice on personalities, rather than on programs. But Bachelet Rev.2 fooled them all.
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Space Cat
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by Space Cat » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:47 pm

Where is it different except for the authoritarian countries like China or Singapore?

But anyway, I perceive the programs like "do nothing important and waste money on inefficient private companies and public sector" and "do nothing important and get some taxes lower". The second one at least will get economy moving without getting into debts.

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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by Britkid » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:03 pm

This is the debate you're referring to, I think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZQiJRlbQQU
I thought it was a bit more civil than the equivalent UK, US debates.
I thought the TV people were professional and did a decent job.
There were a few bits I didn't understand (the pensions debate and something about someone gay and a sauna?? never mind) but I could follow most of it.
I think Piñera did slightly better, although it was pretty even. In the first half of the debate I thought he underlined his claim about delincuencia quite well. In the second half there was a point where he talked about jobs and salary that was also OK. I think these points will have resonated with some viewers. I think it's going to be very close but I think Piñera is slightly ahead.
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by Britkid » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:12 pm

I guess the question is firstly whether the left really have been dirtier than the right, and whether a Guiller government should or not be tarnished by its predecessors. I don't really know enough to have an opinion personally, so it wouldn't effect my judgement much. I can't learn the answer from this forum either, since it clearly has a right bias.

I heard plenty of people tell me that Piñera is dirty as well in his history, at least in his business history. I am not going to look into that either, unless he is actually the candidate the next time when I vote.

By the time I actually vote it would probably be 2020 or later so I don't see value in myself digging up and learning about old scandals that happened before I arrived in 2014 unless they relate to one of the Presidential candidates themselves.

I'm sort of trying to follow this election to help me vote more informed in future elections.

I actually think 5 years to be here before voting is actually a reasonable and fair rule. At the moment I feel more qualified to give an opinion on UK politics or US politics even, rather than Chile.
In 2014/2015 I blogged about my life in Chile. http://web.archive.org/web/201601121940 ... age_id=268

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fraggle092
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by fraggle092 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:48 pm

Space Cat wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:47 pm
Where is it different except for the authoritarian countries like China or Singapore?
You keep saying things like "its worse in Russia". Yes, I'm sure it is. And also Zimbabwe, and Kazakhstan, and South Africa etc etc.etc. The point Is that it used to be better here in Chile.
Space Cat wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:47 pm
But anyway, I perceive the programs like "do nothing important and waste money on inefficient private companies and public sector" and "do nothing important and get some taxes lower The second one at least will get economy moving without getting into debts".
Please explain how money is wasted on inefficient private companies. I haven't even seen one government peso in my business. That is not how it works, I give them money.

Lower taxes? The level of individual taxation is the second-lowest in the OECD. And already Piñera raised business taxes to their current above-OECD average level. So not much room to move there.

Incidentally, I suspect this was the origin of the No+AFP movement. Looking forward to a Leftist government, they wanted to get their hands on that enormous pile of pension money to fund their programs. The only thing that stopped them was the financial meltdown it would have caused.
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by Space Cat » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:54 pm

fraggle092 wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:48 pm
You keep saying things like "its worse in Russia". Yes, I'm sure it is. And also Zimbabwe, and Kazakhstan, and South Africa etc etc.etc. The point Is that it used to be better here in Chile.
Eh? Nope, I was not saying it at all and only compared some new local trends to my previous experience in Eastern European countries (like forcing the public sector into supporting the government's candidate).

I'm following Northern American and European political events more than ex-USSR ones and most of the developed countries have a strong 2-3 party split without a unified vision. Chile is not unique whatsoever, it's quite similar to Spain for example (minus Catalonia).
fraggle092 wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:48 pm
Please explain how money is wasted on inefficient private companies. I haven't even seen one government peso in my business. That is not how it works, I give them money.
Earlier in this thread I sent a link to the Guillier's program where he wants to increase taxes to sponsor AFPs – inefficient private companies.

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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by admin » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:29 pm

The No + AFP thing blew up, like the stupid left blows up every none-issue, back a year or two ago when it was revealed that some government employees that were retiring, and had stayed in the old pension system structure, were going to retire with like 10 million pesos a month in retirement payments. Good for them. Of course there was a lot of outrage, because at the same time, the AFP's were returning crap because the Chilean stock market had cratered for several years.

Some how, the administration, to cover their ass, managed to point the finger at the AFP system, rather than their own policies that crashed the stock market, for why everyone's AFP accounts were not performing.

Meanwhile, in the whole mess, somehow they passed over the point that a large percentage of the retired people right now in Chile, are not doing well, because they converted over half-way through their life or less, to the new AFP system from the old government one. Yea, the stock brokers running the AFP's are morons, and over charging, but none of the proposals seem to be interested in fixing that problem.

No one pointed out that, even if they changed the system, the amount lost just cratering the economy was more than they would have made had the economy been in good shape.

It is real simple. Say, Jorge the maestro makes $300,000 pesos a month. Jorge get's laid off for 4 years from when his construction job disappeared due to Bachelet's tax reform, and he is forced to take a bunch of part time work and does not continue paying in to his AFP account. Now Jorge has 4 years less invested in his retirement account, that should have in theory been some of his most important returns of his life time, because the stock market was down (e.g. he missed the 30+% rally in the stock market over the last year, 20% the year before, and so on). Jorge got screwed, just by the administration talking about screwing around with the AFP retirement accounts. One of the few things you will find in all retirement planners, and all historical studies, is that consistent long-term investment wins the day over investment timing.

Never mind, the stupid idea that there is a government managed collective retirement fund that is for "solidarity" that is not going to be raided to buy political favors and be a general slush fund. Never has happened. They are not proposing retirement savings. They are proposing a new tax on employers and employees. An additional 5%, if it just stops there; and, well, we all know it never stops there.

I swear, 99% of all the disagreements in Chilean politics comes down to the ignorance of how basic finance works. The left loves to exploit the ignorance any chance they get. They got no intentions of improving the education system, because that would put them out of job. Even if your a hard-core communist, you should at least pick up a book on capitalism once in a while. Come on, even Marx studied capitalism.
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by admin » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:49 pm

oh, yea, Guillier is not lefty at all. Uruguayan x-president Mujica just showed up to help him.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p ... 23347.html
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by fraggle092 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:25 pm

Space Cat wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:54 pm
Earlier in this thread I sent a link to the Guillier's program where he wants to increase taxes to sponsor AFPs – inefficient private companies.
Sorry, no. If you go to 01:10:12 in the video linked to by Britkid above you can read Guillier's lips for yourself:
Nosotros no vamos a pasar por ningún motivo mas dinero a las AFP
Regarding the AFP system's obvious flaws, there are another couple of aspects often overlooked.
We often get job applicants that don't want an Employment Contract in order to to avoid paying AFP and FONASA imposiciones. They want the cash instead. When they retire, all they are due is the Pensión Básica Solidaria. Naturally they want more, even though they have paid nothing into the system. Freeloaders in other words.

The AFP is a savings system based on regular contributions over a person's working life of, say 40 years. But here a lot of people don't work regularly for a multitude of reasons, as Admin says. So they never put enough money into the system in the first place.
Not much in, not much out.
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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by Space Cat » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:37 pm

They are going to compensate AFP's inefficiency by taxing employers instead of fixing AFPs and market growth. So not directly, I agree. But it's a wasteful spending anyway.

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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by frozen-north » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:15 am

Space Cat wrote:
I also believe that siding with candidates only because of the "progre" questions like gay rights is a bad choice. I'm all for the equal rights for everybody, including gay marriage, but a poorly managed economy will hurt much more people than a temporary lack of some progressive policy and it could backfire extremely bad for all the future progressive initiatives (see the US elections, see Brexit).

If you are left-leaning or anti-establishment, voting for Piñera this time would be a better choice because NM must fall. It's not a left coalition but a pocket corporate puppet like US dems.
And how can you tell which candidate will be better for 'the economy'? What will you be measuring?

The NM (Nueva Mayoria) is a 'pocket corporate puppet like US dems'? What does Piñera represent then? The KKK?

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Re: 2017 election round two: will you vote?

Post by frozen-north » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:25 am

fraggle092 wrote:
Please realize that these proposals you seem to all take so seriously are election promises. I already mentioned Bachelet's lame 20-20-20 hospital program (parts of which were initiated by Piñera btw)

And perhaps that is why Chileans base their voting choice on personalities, rather than on programs.
If proposed programs are not to be trusted, then what is left? I remember some Canadian candidate saying that during elections is not the time to develop (explain?) policies.
Here, they make policy up as they go along. There is no longterm national plan because there is no national consensus on the direction Chile ought to be headed in. Government here is a bolsa de gatos,all political expediency, selfish sectarian and personal interests, and increasingly, corruption.
And what country or countries do you have in mind when you say that? What countries have a consensus on long term national plans?? Are you thinking of the USSR five-year plans?
The point Is that it used to be better here in Chile.
Really? When?

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