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Re: Bargain Hunter(s) Read This

Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:21 pm
by El Chupacabra
mem wrote:
picalena wrote: I think the only place I have found that doesnt actually have any volcano's "locally", but is still far inland and high up, is the area around Portero Grande and just west of it.
Do you mean Potrero Grande or some other place?

Re: Bargain Hunter(s) Read This

Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:21 pm
by El Chupacabra
deleted.....accidental double post.

Re: Bargain Hunter(s) Read This

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:37 am
by David_Bro
This is hilarious---the internet forum-----negative and positive-----good posters and trolls-----let's see what else?----ahhh, something no one has mentioned----internet forums are also great theatre and you have to admit, whether you are a poster or a lurker, its pretty damn fun to read and exchange and dance around here but in the end of it all I think its what Abraham Lincoln said is the best application for all of it---- "People are about as happy as they want to be."

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Re: Bargain Hunter(s) Read This

Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:24 am
by Enzo
David_Bro wrote:"People are about as happy as they want to be.
True enough.

Re: Bargain Hunter(s) Read This

Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:54 am
by David_Bro
Not me on the quote-----please attribute Mr. Lincoln

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Re: Bargain Hunter(s) Read This

Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:05 am
by admin
Julito wrote:A "strong miltary". Relative to its immediate neighbors yes but perhaps wrongly equipped for any potential strategic threat.

For example ageing F16 fighters which fly too fast so would rapidly run out of targets in counter insurgency warfare, with nothing suitably slower to take over the job.

Old Leopard tanks which it's been explained to me would be used to block the mountain passes. Tanks are only good for direct fire. Mobile tracked artillery with forward observers/spotters are far better suited to the job.

Importantly, the Chilean military has had no "institutional memory" of warfare for many generations so it's entirely inexperienced and untested in those realities, not that I'm complaining. I was talking to a retired senior Armoured officer a couple of years ago and I asked him what his most satisfying job was in all his years in the military. I expected to hear it was commanding this or that but no, it was "Setting up a program of equestrian excellence". A luxury in a military with no identifiable strategic threat.

And finally, the Prussian tradition "top down" command system leaves little room for initiative to those on the ground. It's very old fashioned and unlikely to stand up against a well equipped nimble foe on the ground.

Armchair General Julito
hummm ----- have you been following the Chilean military purchases lately?

Yea, the Chilean military probably would not last long in a stand-up fight against any of the major powers, but for the neighborhood they are pretty well equipped. I hear argentina has been cannibalizing it's own hardware for decades to the point most of it does not work. Of course, I am sure the Bolivian navy keeps the Chilean admirals up at night also. If anything, due to the copper law, Chile spends probably too much of it's money on the military. I honestly believe Peru might be the biggest strategic threat to Chile, and Chile and peru have been on pretty good speaking terms in recent years due to economic integration.

This is just a quick list of ones I have seen going on recently in terms of purchases, but have not followed too closely.

First, they have a whole bunch of those Brazilian turbo prop trainer / ground support aircraft. You know, the ones that really ended the civil war in colombia.

They are in the process of upgrading the F-16 to the latest generation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilean_Air_Force

I read they were buying next generation drones and anti-aircraft missiles somewhere also a while back.

They just put in an order I believe this year for two new next generation electric subs. Not sure of the status on that, but those the bad boys that keep the U.S. navy admirals up at night worrying about their old school mechanical nuclear subs due to the fact they are much cheaper to build and maintain so everyone is getting in to them.

They were buying heavy lift transport planes, plus I believe they are in the process of replacing their smaller transport planes. This is mostly due to the realization that military has a disaster relief roll more often that combat roll.

They were also upgrading their helicopter fleet and in the process of upgrading their frigates with the latest sea launched and targeting systems. I believe they were shopping for few more large naval ships also, as they were set to retire a few.

If I have a criticism of their hardware selection, it is the hodge podge of different systems they have acquired over the years.

When all that fails, Chile has a whole lot of U.S. naval personal in Chile, just entered an agreement to test and develop new U.S military hardware in Chile, and regularly does military exercises with the 4th fleet including regional defense of the Panama canal. The neighbors like to bitch about Chile's close relationship with the U.S., but it also keeps their military leaders up at night guessing about just how close a relationship they have. I would say, in south america, perhaps only Colombia has a closer military relationship with the U.S. I doubt you can depend on the U.S. to get involved in any local conflicts, but I bet they would show-up if China and Russia got too chummy with the neighbors.

so, no Chile does not come to mind as one of the great armies of the World, but there is also something to be said for maintaining just sufficient military superiority as to not make the neighbors so nervous that they feel they need to invest in better arms.

Re: Bargain Hunter(s) Read This

Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:29 am
by Julito
Yes reasonably well equipped for it's primary role in disaster relief. In the absence of any definable strategic threat perhaps the hodge podge of other military hardware is an attempt to partly cover the bases of all possible scenarios. Putting the navy aside it'd be interesting to know which scenarios the men on the ground actually train and rehearse for. Or perhaps they don't to any large degree and the major focus is on the logistics of disaster relief.

Re: Bargain Hunter(s) Read This

Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:07 pm
by Julito
Seems I went off half cocked. I did some research. They're doing a wide variety of training for multiple scenarios, including integrated training with other nations with long established institutional memories of actual combat. So perhaps that Prussian "top down" command system has dissipated to some degree. They're also better equipped than I thought.

Re: Bargain Hunter(s) Read This

Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:29 pm
by eeuunikkeiexpat
September 19th parade is something to watch especially when they are wearing their full combat gear.

Re: Bargain Hunter(s) Read This

Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:12 pm
by admin
Julito wrote:Seems I went off half cocked. I did some research. They're doing a wide variety of training for multiple scenarios, including integrated training with other nations with long established institutional memories of actual combat. So perhaps that Prussian "top down" command system has dissipated to some degree. They're also better equipped than I thought.
I have heard passing rumors of Chilean soldiers doing "contract" work in the middle east. They also deployed the military to Haiti after the earthquake there, and are only now starting to wrap-up that humanitarian deployment. Of course, the Chilean military never did cut ties to the "school of the Americas" or whatever they call themselves today.

Do they get a lot of practice? Not really, but I am rather o.k. living somewhere where the military is very rarely used for what it was built for.

The navy is probably the most active, as they are essentially the coast guard combined with the navy. You can't cross a medium size bathtub in Chile without their approval. They do rescues at sea, inspections, anti-drug stuff, and are constantly chasing the Chinese, Peruvians, and so on fishing trollers out of Chilean waters.

Re: Bargain Hunter(s) Read This

Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 8:48 pm
by Andres
I agree with your comment that Chile does not pose a military threat to "the big boys", but:
admin wrote:They just put in an order I believe this year for two new next generation electric subs. Not sure of the status on that, but those the bad boys that keep the U.S. navy admirals up at night worrying about their old school mechanical nuclear subs due to the fact they are much cheaper to build and maintain so everyone is getting in to them.
The significant issue is that electric subs are A LOT less noisy than their nuclear cousins.
Electric boats can not stay submerged for extended periods as a nuclear boat, but that is not always the deciding factor.
There have been numerous instances of electric boats 'sinking' nuclear boats, and US large surface vessels in joint exercises.
If I have a criticism of their hardware selection, it is the hodge podge of different systems they have acquired over the years.
I am not sure in what way you mean "hodge podge"?
If it is because Chile sources military equipment from several countries, I consider a strategic positive, not a negative.
Contrast Australia: it sources far too much military materiel from the US and Israel; both of those governments are amongst the most criminal. Therefore, the Australian government can not make any policy decisions or take any actions which are contrary to the US's or Israel's strategic benefit; they have the Australian government by the balls.
Chile is not in that situation as badly as Australia and a few other countries.

Re: Bargain Hunter(s) Read This

Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:47 pm
by mem
I think the key as several have pointed out is "relative to the neighborhood" and too true, South America has not seen a proper war for a long long time.

In terms of the "big boys", these are just the northern hemisphere super powers. Going against them is not really in the cards anyway for little ole south america.

I think the only country that should be concerned is Venezuela. I can see the US invading them under a pretext that it is such a nightmare there. They will say they are only there to "help". It will turn out out they will help themselves to the ahem, oil. But it will just be "protection" money. The crisis is real in Venezuela and we all know the "big boys" never let a good crisis go to waste.

I also tend to thin the days of the "Chicago Boys" are long gone, I don't think the US is particularly interested much farther south than Venezuela. Maybe that will change, but right now they are too busy fussing with Mexico, Russia/Asia, and Europe

So taking the Venezuela circus and Big Boy intervention off the table, the only other countries in south america that are really on the map militarily are:

Columbia
Brazil
Argentina
Peru
Chile

So lets look at those...I totally discount Brazil and Argentina. Sure they are big in land mass, lots of people, but they are terribly managed. Just terribly managed. That cannot be underestimated and it devalues everything else about the country. The currency, the banking, the economy, its all just a powder keg and if all that goes down the tubes it will severely hamper what tawdry military power they can project as it is. Their own citizens will eat them alive from the inside first.

All that really leaves is Columbia, Peru , and Chile...and honestly I wish these countries were larger, had more control of the South American land mass.

I think Chile scores higher in terms of economy/finance/currency and military then the others. The achilles heel is the centrality of copper and the lapdogging that Chile does with other western nations. I wish that Chile had the foresight to start stockpiling precious metals by the ton (like the Big Boys are doing in the Northern Hemi), but instead they just stack USD paper as the majority reserve stake. At least Chile has a decent Gold/Silver mining industry, so at least when they do wake up that might be helpful for them

South america as a whole, doesnt really seem to have much inter-state conflict. Beside the Bolivian/Chile border dispute it seems like the countries are more or less content with how the map is laid out.

The only anomaly is the whole Iran/Argentina thing. That wound still seems raw and just adds another risk for Argentina.

So Chile for the win still