Chile 2017 Presidential Election

General topics related to Living in Chile
User avatar
Space Cat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 941
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:20 pm
Location: Valdivia

Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Space Cat » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:54 pm

Funny how Sanchez ignores the opinion polling results before elections. It looks like somebody forgot to poll millennials who are now killing Nueva Mayoría industry.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 15478
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:06 pm

Pinera does not have to fight for kast's votes. The right will never vote for guillier.

But guillier has to work to motivate sanchez voters to vote for him, and even if sanchez helps him i am not sure the sanchez voters will get excited about him as they did for sanchez. At least not 100% of them.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 15478
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:08 pm

44.54 vs 42.64%

It is all in that fuzzy 5 to 10% of voters on the left. Pretty much what sanchez motivated to run neck and neck with guillier.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

Britkid
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1356
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:59 pm
Location: Talagante area, Chile
Contact:

Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Britkid » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:18 pm

admin wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:40 pm
Sorry correction. At the momen guillier + sanchez = 42.99

Kast + piner = 44.55

Mas o menos
hm can we add meo

guillier + sanchez + meo = 48

looks very close to me for the second round
In 2014/2015 I blogged about my life in Chile. http://web.archive.org/web/201601121940 ... age_id=268

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 15478
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:28 pm

Put another way, Guillier needs to close a 21.9% gap with the right voting block, out of wreckage on the left.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 15478
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:32 pm

Keep in mind that out gioc 5%, about half could defect to pinera.

O.k. FIFA math makes more sense now.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
Space Cat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 941
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:20 pm
Location: Valdivia

Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Space Cat » Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:53 pm

Some clear stats here:
https://decidechile.cl/

Chile Vamos got majority for both the chamber of deputies and the senate. If I understand the difference scales at the bottom of the page correctly – all the old parties are bleeding votes like crazy.

Also interesting stats by region:
https://decidechile.cl/#/ev/2017/el/201 ... 017.t.3013

Region voting reflects the polls better: Piñera gets 43-52% in many southern communes, Sanchez – around 10-15%, Kast occasionally receives from 10% to 20% votes in some communes in Biobío. But big cities vote similarly to Santiago.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 15478
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:20 am

I had a good chuckle last night.

Guillier has a problem. He did not get a full endorsement from most of the other candidates on the left.

Sanchez basically told Guillier that he was her bitch now. If he wants her supporters votes, he will have to listen to them now. She very carefully said we need to defeat pinera, but did not endorse Guillier. Very subtle, but important difference.

Gioc did the same thing.

Meanwhile, Kast came out with an unconditional support of Pinera. He went over to Pinera's command center in the hours after he gave the concession speach.

On the one hand I am disappointed there was not definitive win. On the other hand, at least it is not just another dull election cycle. Cliff-hangers are always fun in a telnovela.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 15478
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:22 am

and whomever wins, it looks like they will have to deal with top-heavy, right leaning, chile vamos controlled congress.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 15478
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:28 am

Probably more important last night, or at least historical, was pretty much the end of the Christian Democrats as a party in Chile. They just evaporated. That in it self says a lot.

It is sort of sign of the end of the post-dictatorship politics of a one trick pony party, who's platfom basically began and ended with 'we are against the dictatorship, so vote for us'.

The far right, well, did not care.

The far / new left, is a composed of new generation of lefties, that most don't remember the dictatorship because they were too young or born after. They got other priorities, and sitting around all day talking about how hard life was under dictatorship or getting revenge against those that helped is not one of them. I think that vote showed up in Sanchez suprise last moment surge made up of a lot of young voters.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
fraggle092
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1116
Joined: Fri Mar 28, 2008 6:35 pm
Location: In Chile

Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by fraggle092 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:38 am

I cannot understand yesterdays outcome. Guillier, backed by the the Communist and Socialist parties promised to continue the policies of the current, unpopular government, and did reasonably well at the polls.

Another, even further left candidate, Beatriz Sánchez did surprisingly well. I guess that both Sánchez, as well as Kast at the other end of the spectrum benefited from disillusion with the established parties.

The big losers are the DC, punished I believe for their go-along-to get-along policies during this government and by being seen as being more interested in their parliamentary pitutos and cuotas de poder than in the welfare of the country. Serves them right.

Voter turnout was low, as usual. Less than half the registered voters, 46%, bothered to turn out.
I hope that at least some of the abstainers, faced with the prospect of a puppet president controlled by the Left will be motivated enough to turn out on December 17.

It will be interesting to see what sort of a manifesto Guillier cobbles together in the meantime given the accommodations he will have to make.
Après moi, le déluge

Britkid
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1356
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:59 pm
Location: Talagante area, Chile
Contact:

Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Britkid » Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:24 am

Interesting to see that the % of women actually elected is far below the 40% quota of actual candidates - not sure what is going on here to cause that?

Chilean peso weakened just over 1% - perhaps due to slightly better than expected result for left parties?

I am not sure how many of Sanchez voters will actually vote according to Sanchez' reccomendation, rather than their own beliefs? So, I am not sure how much concession Guillier really has to make. If he can get the reccomendation with smaller concessions, may be worth it.
In 2014/2015 I blogged about my life in Chile. http://web.archive.org/web/201601121940 ... age_id=268

Post Reply