Chile 2017 Presidential Election

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Tue Oct 24, 2017 1:19 pm

here is a report with all the back and forth. the communist party is denying that they were trying to evict them.
https://www.cooperativa.cl/noticias/pai ... 15352.html
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frozen-north
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by frozen-north » Tue Oct 24, 2017 1:28 pm

admin wrote:
Interesting statement I seen go by the other day in a headline. Not sure how true it is, or even understand the history involved. Someone said the Christian Democrat party (the traditional center left) party, was created as a contrast to the Socialist Party; not, as I had understood, a to be a primary opposition to the dictatorship. The socialist party was far, far too left for the majority of Chileans to get on board with.
It preceded the dictatorship by a number of years.

Partido Demócrata Cristiano

Fecha de fundación: 28 de Julio de 1957

Desde su nacimiento, ha tenido un lugar importante dentro de la historia política chilena, ocupando dentro del sistema de partidos una posición de centro reformista. Con una ideología basada en los valores del social cristianismo, fue el partido más votado del país entre las elecciones municipales de 1963 hasta las elecciones parlamentarias de 2001.

https://www.bcn.cl/historiapolitica/par ... _Cristiano

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by tiagoabner » Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:34 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Oct 24, 2017 1:19 pm
here is a report with all the back and forth. the communist party is denying that they were trying to evict them.
https://www.cooperativa.cl/noticias/pai ... 15352.html
Typical socialist behavior: social justice above property law and individual rights is totally OK, unless its their rights. George Orwell would be proud of this Animal Farm philosophy: all Chileans are equal, but some are more equal than the others.

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Space Cat » Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:07 pm

The deep problem with the Marx-based school of thought that it's based on dividing the society into two groups based on moral reasoning. A lot of psychological research shows that the concept of moral superiority produces violence and injustice:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg ... ack-of-it/

This is what led to bloodsheds in USSR and other communist countries, and the same idea continues to poison many left-leaning parties. Most of the Chilean left politicians and activists are toxically moralistic, like the Evangelicals. Frente Amplio is a perfect example of people beating each other over nothing but "who's the most righteous leftist here?"

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by tiagoabner » Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:32 pm

Piñera literally just needs to lay low while they trade bows. As long as he keeps his mouth shut about "marepotos", he's good to go.

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Ignite » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:35 pm

Hopefully Jose Antonio Kast wins 8) 8)

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:56 am

I just blew coffee all over my computer when I opened these articles this morning:

The people occupying the property, are demanding payment for back wages for taking care of the property for some 27 years.

http://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/naci ... erlo.shtml

Which, thanks to the Communist party and the other far left politicians in Chile, employers almost never, ever, ever win in labor court. One labor attorney just bluntly said to us, "don't even bother challenging employee in labor court, unless you have a contract".

Guess what happens if they don't pay up?

The property (or some other property owned by the communist party), can be auctioned off to pay it.

Thus, why the communist party keeps saying they are willing to negotiate. Because they know they are screwed on so many levels.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:13 am

o.k., for fun my wife pulled the law suit(s).

Some of the highlights:

There are two different properties. One has 50 people on it. One was a member of the communist party that was caretaker, and invited the other families to move there with the communist parties own platform, "you have the right to have somewhere to live".

The other dispute, claims they were hired by the communist party as caretakers, and they have had a claim since 2015.

The whole mess seems to be because of the new law prohibiting political parties from owning land that is used for private purposes. I wonder who voted for that.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Space Cat » Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:27 pm


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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:21 am

I started an election poll about voting for foreigners can be found here:

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=16126
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:52 am

So it seems pinera is for the most part sticking to attacking Bachelet, and ignoring the actual other candidates. The more he ignores them, the less legit they look.

http://www.pulso.cl/actualidad-politica ... bientales/

Which turns this election in to pinera vs. Bachelet. The thing to keep an eye on is her poll numbers, that came in at 23%, up a 1% from the last time.

Almost complete reverse of that, is if you watch the free political advertising spots on TV (super fun national pass time by the way), I think there is almost not a single mention of Bachelet among any of the left canidates. No one wants to even associate their name with her. She has the political plague, of being a really unpopular lame duck president.

However, I think that poll number of bachelet probably means more for the left's ability to win in a second round, than their own individual numbers. Pinera is essentially, 'not bachelet' vote. Regardless of who comes in second for the first round election, they will have to deal with the general dissatisfaction with the current administration, and being blamed for it. So far, they are neither taking ownership of Bachelet's changes, nor criticizing them to distance themselves; which, I think overall is a strategic mistake. They are going to be hung with the 'left label', so they need to either grab on to it with both hands or cut it off before it chokes them. Right now they seem to be focused on attacking each other for the most part.

Which probably all comes down to the economy stupid. If the economy recovers, and people are feeling happy go lucky at the time of the election, then there could be a real surprise at the polls.

Which, I started getting a bit concerned about the improving macro economic picture of Chile. There are some signs of life, even apart from anticipation of Pinera winning. I was thinking the biggest threat to Pinera, is a sudden dramatic improvement in the economy.

Well, then there was a conversation my wife had with our bank executive that pretty much killed that concern. Yea, the economy is improving, but it is going to take at least a year for people to start feeling it in their pocket book. Perhaps even longer before they undo the damage to their household. Some may never recover.

The bank executive, just in the course of gossip, said that she was really shocked by the amount of problems people are bringing in. They are having problems making their debt payments. Not defaulting so much, but just late. More interesting, was she said she had never seen so little interest in their investment products (e.g. cds, stocks, mutual funds, typical retail finance stuff that banks push over the counter in Chile).

That was when I realized, that we are a long, a long way from any sort of recovery in the economy. Everyone needs to still patch the holes in boat, before we can start bailing out the water, and only after that we can get back underway and makes some progress.

In fact, even if pinera wins, that is probably going to be his biggest headwind for the next couple of years. Everyone is going to want to make up what they lost, right now; but, the recovery is going to take time.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Mon Oct 30, 2017 8:37 am

So, back when the voluntary voting started, around the last presidential election, I had this thesis that I like to call "political left cannibalism" or
"eat their young" political theory as to why the left in Chile is failing, leading to the country moving more right of the center, possibly even hard right.

I admit now, that was way too early with that theory. Bachelet won, but the right took the city elections.

That said, I am seeing political commentators all over the place saying this is exactly what is happening now. One of the stats that was being thrown around was that the young, mostly right wing voters, from the richer parts of Santiago, vote at an almost a 70% rate. The poorer side of Santiago, and general working class sort of neighborhoods, the younger vote at around 20%.

There is even one far left presidential party, like left of the communist party far left (not even sure how that is possible), running an advertising encouraging their supporters to not vote in the second round for any of the other left candidates.

Why is this?

It goes something like this (my version of it, and it is work in progress):

Now that there is voluntary voting, little by little, the far left and especially the younger voters will not come out to vote. The reason is that the old school center left to even fairly extreme left, are completely out of touch with the new generation of voters. The voters born after the dictatorship.

Essentially the kids today, even if extraordinarily liberal, blame the likes of DC, Bachelet, and the rest of the old school left almost more than they blame the far right for what is wrong with the country. They are, in their view, as big or even bigger problem than the far right. They don't care about the frigen dictatorship. It was big deal in the life's of their parents, but it is just a random historical event in their lives.

The reason is that the center left, since the end of the dictatorship, has in a sense been a victim of its own success. They did, to a certain extent, manage to build a fairly robust middle class, by dragging millions out of poverty over the last 30+ years. Well, as that large group, got a bit of money, houses, better jobs, etc, they start voting more and more conservatively. meanwhile, the old school left of the dictatorship generation, insist on harping on the same old story, focusing heavily on the most extreme poor, etc, etc. Which, for that center, they are not as poor as they use to be. Now they are asking the old school left, what have you done for us lately?

If you make it to middle class, after coming from poverty, guess what your priorities are? Protecting what you got.

What the old school left is failing to grasp is, not that new generation of voters hate capitalism so much, as they want more of the benefits. They want more of an even playing field. The old school, seems to have started doing some lip service to economic equality, but not much else.

The biggest problem, and I am sure it is a fairly subtle and complex economic issue for most people to grasp but they are perhaps aware of it on some level, is that when Bachelet says, "I am not interested in economic growth, unless we have equality", it is the same thing as saying, 'I want to make the rich, richer'. Because when a developing economy quits growing, even for a little while, guess who are the winners and who are the loosers?

For the traditional left voter base, they will look at their pocket books, look around at the unemployment line sitting at their dinner table, and think 'why bother wasting my time to go vote'.

Rather than vote for pinera, they simply will not vote.
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