Chile 2017 Presidential Election

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admin
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:48 am

ooh, it is just a blood-bath in the stock market today.

http://www.bolsadesantiago.com/Paginas/home.aspx

I can't look. Let's see if some bargain shoppers show-up in the afternoon though.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:51 am

The worst thing that could happen to the stock market, from my perspective, is that it just drip, drip, drips down for the next month; rather, than some outright crash that creates a real buying opportunity.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:52 pm

yea, looks like the stock market is getting over the tizzy and recovering. Stock markets are all like little kids. They ignore everything anyone says, do whatever they want, and then throw tizzies over nothing in particular.

The big construction company stocks pretty much all took a 10%+ whipper. They really did not like those election results. Everything else seemed to pretty much go with the flow.
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frozen-north
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by frozen-north » Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:23 pm

Well, it seems that the government estimates were correct.
admin wrote:
well, the government seems to think less than half the people registered to vote will vote.


Gobierno estima que el domingo votará menos de la mitad del padrón electoral

http://www.latercera.com/noticia/gobier ... electoral/

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:47 pm

1 USD =638.162CLP
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:45 am

you know, thinking about it, after the dust has settled a bit, that was not a bad election (at least from my perspective).

It moved congress pretty clearly to the center, from leaning too far left, without falling off the right side of the spectrum. Just sufficient to stop the stupidity (I am sure they will come up with a whole new type of stupidity), but not allow too much far right stupidity to get traction.

The center right got 76 seats, they need 78 for simple majority. Yea, they will have to do some horse trading to get any of the Chile Vamos, center right, passed; but, not very much. They only need a few of the more right leaning independents and DC to vote with them.

On the other hand, Guillier and company are actually in a weaker position. Frente Amplio, Sanchez's party, have been blunt. Guiller needs to come to them and make a deal. They are not going to trade support for positions in the administration. They seem to be pretty serious about not loosing their own support and trust of their voters, by simply selling out and endorsing Guiller. He needs to move their direction, not them to his direction; which, of course means he might loose other's support from his coalition of parties.

I think there is something that a lot of foreigners, coming from clear entrenched party systems need to keep in mind. These right and left collations / parties in Chile now, are not like democrats trying to round-up the far left or right wing of their party. These "collations", on a lot of levels, have very strongly opposed ideologies. They are alliances of convenience. The "party line" is very fuzzy, and subject to change with the political winds.

So, even if Pinera lost the next one, most of the major platforms and positions of the Chile Vamos are in. Guillier might be able to do stupid stuff on an executive level, but the big stuff he needs congress. Most of Bachelet's last moment 'throw everything and the kitchen sink at congress, and see what sticks' strategy has been stopped.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:50 am

By the way, the mini-stock market crash, seems to have stopped for now. The bargain hunters just could not resist the deals. I am sure there will be some zig-zags before this is over on the IPSA.

In other words, everyone still got up and went to work and school yesterday. Copper got mined. Grapes were still growing. salmon got fatter. The sun rose over the volcanoes, and set over the ocean.

If Chile's democracy and economy is that fragile, we got way, way bigger problems than the gap between what some polls said and the voting booth.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Fri Nov 24, 2017 8:52 am

I wondered how long it would take for guillier to run in to the little problem his entire collitiin is completly aposed to eachother.

http://lanacion.cl/2017/11/24/dc-le-pon ... es-viable/

He is holding it together chewing gum and rubber bands. The dc dont like sanchez's probosals, the communist party is fighting with him. He can have more votes on the left, or the right, he can not have both.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by fraggle092 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:19 pm

One of my periodic complaints is the way this administration has "bought" the country's bureaucracy over the last few years, the most glaring example being the hiring of 80,000 new state employees during this term.

But now the government is calling in some of that debt. The Intendente of Coquimbo (a member of the PPD retroexcavadora party, and as we have seen in the Minera Dominga affair, a Bachelet puppet) has urged functionaries to hit the streets, canvassing for Guillier. Mind you, they do have to use Vacation Days or take unpaid leave to do it, but after all that's a small price to pay for guaranteed continued employment.

Given the mediocre quality of public services even at the best of times, their absence will probably go unnoticed.

This packing of public service jobs by employees of a particular political bent has happened before....

http://www.latercera.com/noticia/intend ... -guillier/
Après moi, le déluge

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by tiagoabner » Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:49 pm

This is 100% the way the left operates in Brazil through the use of "cargos comissionados", AKA people in positions that were indicated by politicians. This was created there as a loophole by the left, who used a breach that allowed for politicians to indicate people for positions of trust (IE. secretary, consultant) to fill in non-trust positions instead of going through the usual "merit based" selection process.

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Space Cat » Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:19 pm

That's how all CIS countries operate too and they are not "left" in general. Just implementing a corrupted grab of power via loyal public sector.

For example, pro-government demonstrations in Russia are always filled with teachers, doctors, and government workers.

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:12 am

no, the big one, that flew under the radar for the most part, was the giving away of the 150 new notary public's. That was a straight up gift from bachelet to party loyalist. Guaranteed income for life, as most notaries die multi-millionaires.

The other one, was the outgoing health department head, signing huge increases in retirement package for the top officials at the health department. Guess, that is what they mean by "NO+AFP" in the bachelet administration. The commie kids protesting on the street can suck up the bill, if they ever find a job.
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