Chile 2017 Presidential Election

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frozen-north
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by frozen-north » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:27 pm


“La izquierda en Chile es más pragmática que la derecha"

La más destacada economista chilena en el mundo compara los modelos económicos que se juegan en esta elección. Contraria a sus colegas, ve con más interés el programa de Guillier.

http://www.elmercurio.com/Inversiones/N ... itoso.aspx

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admin
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:35 am

fraggle092 wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:38 pm
From EMOL:

Chilean shares face their day of reckoning prior to elections.

According to Bloomberg, the 20% IPSA rise since Piñera announced his candidacy cannot be justified by company profitability, in fact profits have declined by an average of 17% this year.

So its a bubble. Already share values are drifting lower due to profit-taking.

The original Bloomberg article quoted by EMOL doesn't appear in Google, must be subscription-only.
Since when does any markets stock prices correspond to earnings?

In any case, not sure I buy that. This process of the run started back in the spring of 2015-2016, after the market bottomed out with a 'well, bachelet is almost done, and can only do so much more damage to the economy'.

4 years of suppressed investment and growth, led by a construction and real estate related stocks domestically. The big gainers have been stocks with their profits squarely diversified outside of Chile and in to the rest of latin america and the world. The ones that have been sinking large amounts of capital in to other markets angling for recovery in those markets. LTM finally reported a profit yesterday, that was twice what was expected. BCI buying another bank in the United States. Coppec forestry division just announced they got the green light to buy a Brazilian OSB company. So on, and so forth. I think I seen some time back coppec was buying another gas station chain in the States.

So, yea, I could see a very justified 20-30% premium on the stock market, if you buy the idea that the government is going to stop shooting the economy in the foot.

I seen somewhere this morning, rental and sale prices in Santiago were up something like 30%

There are quite a few stocks now that are more than a bit over priced, at something like 20-40x earnings, but there are still lot out there trading in fairly reasonable 8-20 times earnings. Obviously not all that glitters is gold.

I am also taking the likes of bloomberg and the big trading houses prognosis of Chile's stock market with a grain of salt. They are all trying to push the Argentina and Brazil cool-aid right now. Jpmoron last year said sell Chilean stocks, and buy argentina and brazil. The market did something like a 50% additional run since then. I get what they are doing. They figure this election in latin america is over, and so they are positioning in to other countries that have elections coming up.

I don't expect to see another 30% through the rest of year, but their might still be a good 10% if this election crap gets settled.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:49 am

Have you ever heard the saying, "no one every got fired for selling at a profit"?

That pretty much sums up my reason for disliking professional stock brokers. Their motive is to make commissions and not get fired. My motive is to make money and retire, while paying them as little as possible. So, to not get fired, they need to dial back their risk, at the expense of returns; while encouraging people to trade in and out of the market for no particularly good reason other than they get more commissions.

Yea, the market could go down, but what do I care. My time horizon is about 20+ years. Their time horizon is until the end of the year bonus season.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:28 am

thought this was worth a double post. They are asking Bachelet to give amensty to nearly 200,000 illegal immigrants:
http://www.latercera.com/noticia/solici ... migrantes/

Bet she waits until after the election to sneak this one in before she leaves office.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:22 pm

well, the government seems to think less than half the people registered to vote will vote.
http://www.latercera.com/noticia/gobier ... electoral/
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:24 pm

Which I am sort of seeing a trend among friends and contacts. They either are going in to vote for Pinera, not voting at all. A few are casting something like a protest vote for someone with no chance of winning, either extrem right or left.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:26 pm

Well one day before the election, this study of social media has kast + pinera at over 55%.

http://m.elmostrador.cl/noticias/opinio ... ferencias/
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:30 pm

What struck me, that the left was in big trouble when all the other polls had those "that would not vote or would spoil their vote" at something like over 35%, when the nearest left canidate was only at around 22%. If your a canidate and can not beat the null vote, never mind the other canidates, your in trouble.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:34 pm

Tommorrow it will be interesting to see just how full the polling places are. Even just in the last election for mayor, most of the town comes out to vote. Mostly because it is sort of a social event in a small town on a sunday.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:34 am

Well, we got the first results. Sanchez won in New Zealand. Granted there was only 141 votes, but fun to watch none-the less. This is the first time Chileans can vote for president in the exterior.

http://www.24horas.cl/politica/eleccion ... da-2566341

I think it is great that Chileans outside Chile can now vote, just I was doing some back of the napkin calculations. They have something like 36,000 people expected to vote, at some 61 consulates. They have to send police for security by law. Figure each PDI they send costs the country about $100,000 to station outside the country. So, it cost the country something like $1,000 to $10,000 per vote, perhaps more.

I think, they need to rethink, how those votes are conducted. Perhaps a cheaper mail in system, or online system.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:46 am

By the way that does not surprise me. There is a very big exile community outside of Chile, along with a large group of people that left for economic reasons over the years. I expect most of the votes outside the country to be heavily left leaning.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by fraggle092 » Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:26 am

Well, I did my civic duty, but had to wait 30 minutes for the vocales de mesa to get their act together. When I left, at 0930, none of the vocales at the adjacent mesa had turned up yet. At that "early" hour most of the voters seemed to be elderly ladies, many with walking sticks, and I was sorry to see how many of these gamely struggled up steep flights of stairs to reach their designated room. It wouldn't have taken much organization to assign senior voters to the ground floor mesas....
admin wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:46 am
I expect most of the votes outside the country to be heavily left leaning.
Well yeah, that's why this government introduced overseas voting for "hobby" voters who neither contribute to the country nor have to live with the outcome.
Après moi, le déluge

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