Chile 2017 Presidential Election

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Ruff
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Ruff » Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:38 pm

The right only got 8 percent so far. Piñera may be right leaning compared to Allende or Artes but he is closer to Saul Alinsky than Thatcher

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:57 pm

Pinera seems to be winning, but i am not sure pinera +kast = a second round win over the left.
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Britkid
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Britkid » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:09 pm

Not much chat about the election on here? About as much as when there's a football match on!

Looks like with over half the votes counted Guillier on 22.6% has a lead of over 2% vs Sanchez on 20.4%. That may be a tricky lead to make up. That stat was some minutes ago, so not sure if up to date.

I've noticed that the splits in individual places are quite similar to the overall results in many cases.

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:21 pm

Yea the number are pretty set with 68% of votes counted: 36% pinera and 22% guillier and 20% sanchez.

The next round comes down to how many of the left voters stay home.

I am guessing if 5 to 10% of those that voted this time stay home, pinera wins.

Nothing definitive was settled today.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:29 pm

Honestly the congress elections are probably more important or at least interesting in terms of what way the goverment breaks.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:36 pm

Sanchez + guillier has a lead over pinera + kast, of less than 1%

That means guiller to win, he needs to hold all of sanchez voters in the second round plus grab some of the others votes. I dont think he has the personality nor the enthusiasm to do it. Sanchez might have pulled it off. But not guillier.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:40 pm

Sorry correction. At the momen guillier + sanchez = 42.99

Kast + piner = 44.55

Mas o menos
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Ignite
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Ignite » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:44 pm

I think Guillier is going to win this election.

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by dmwbmw2 » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:47 pm

Yesterday i would have said no way.

Now i am going to be very quiet and keep my fingers crossed!

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Space Cat » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:54 pm

Funny how Sanchez ignores the opinion polling results before elections. It looks like somebody forgot to poll millennials who are now killing Nueva Mayoría industry.

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:06 pm

Pinera does not have to fight for kast's votes. The right will never vote for guillier.

But guillier has to work to motivate sanchez voters to vote for him, and even if sanchez helps him i am not sure the sanchez voters will get excited about him as they did for sanchez. At least not 100% of them.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:08 pm

44.54 vs 42.64%

It is all in that fuzzy 5 to 10% of voters on the left. Pretty much what sanchez motivated to run neck and neck with guillier.
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