Chile 2017 Presidential Election

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fraggle092
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by fraggle092 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:05 pm

admin wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:12 am
no, the big one, that flew under the radar for the most part, was the giving away of the 150 new notary public's. That was a straight up gift from bachelet to party loyalist. Guaranteed income for life, as most notaries die multi-millionaires.

The other one, was the outgoing health department head, signing huge increases in retirement package for the top officials at the health department. Guess, that is what they mean by "NO+AFP" in the bachelet administration. The commie kids protesting on the street can suck up the bill, if they ever find a job.
There have been so many scandals over the past few years, its hard to pick one out.
It wasn't always that way, I think the rot really set in around 2000. Chile used to have a reputation for political and financial responsibility, and still does although that is increasingly being contradicted by widespread and increasingly blatant corruption.

A bad sign is when 120-odd high-ranking Carabineros (an institution that used to be a national symbol), get caught with their hands in the till to the tune of at least USD $40 Million, with more frauds still being uncovered.

Not good. This country is going in the wrong direction.
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at46
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by at46 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:17 pm

Space Cat wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:19 pm
That's how all CIS countries operate too and they are not "left" in general. Just implementing a corrupted grab of power via loyal public sector.

For example, pro-government demonstrations in Russia are always filled with teachers, doctors, and government workers.
Same in Canada, plus members of unions/professional associations. They certainly know who butters their bread.

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Game Over

Post by admin » Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:36 pm

oooh, Sanchez and the Frente Amplio party just shot down Guillier, with the death endorsement of "vote your convictions" to their supporters.

http://www.latercera.com/noticia/frente ... da-vuelta/

Let me translate that in to practical terms for a very large portion of the far left and young group of voters that supported Sanchez in the last round. It says, 'don't bother getting out of bed on election day'.

I was really wondering if he could corral that far left vote, while not loosing a bunch of votes in the center. He was already having problems with keeping the communist party under his wing.

The problem with Guillier is he is trying to keep everyone happy all the time. No one in the history of politics has ever pulled that one off. Definitely not in Chile.

If he moved hard left to capture those voters, he would have to basically promise to do things that were impossible to do; and the more center right, was going to bail on him.

The far left, will simply not show up to vote or spoil their vote in protest. They will never vote for Pinera.

The center left are so on the fence they will actually show-up and vote for Pinera, if Guillier alienates them.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:47 pm

Let me see if I can do the basic math.

I will take one major platform that the Frente Amplio was demanding, No more AFP.

To do that, Guillier would need to push through the congress, a constitutional reform. The problem is that AFP, is essentially private money. They would be forced under the current constitution to expropriate the funds, to create a public government controlled pension fund. yea, I know, don't even get me started about what a bad idea that is; but, let's just say that was the political objective on deck.

Well, to do that, they would need a super majority of congress. Chile Vamos, the right, mostly controls congress now, minus a few votes for a simple majority. So, the stupidity stops there.

In fact, I am a little baffled, why he simply did not just promise it; knowing he could never make it happen even if he wanted.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:56 pm

For the part of the Frente Amplio, they made big gains, coming from nowhere to be a real player in politics in Chile.

Their play is pretty obvious. If you are a party on the rise, and your going to be essentially the opposition for the next 4 years no matter what, who do you want for president?

You want Pinera, because that will solidify the opposition of the far left around your party; possibly, even making Sanchez and Frente Amplio a real contender for the next election in 4 years. Guillier does not get them there. He is too wishy washy of an enemy, to really get the left fired up. Especially the student movement and the younger voters.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Britkid » Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:59 pm

I found this useful:

http://www.latercera.com/noticia/intera ... la-moneda/

According to this, the polls are heavily to Piñera.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by Space Cat » Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:33 am

Well, somebody couldn't keep his mouth closed for a month after all! After today's shitstorm we are heading to considerably more dramatic elections than before.

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:51 am

Yep he just could not do it. Had to put his foot in his mouth about the stupid pre-marked votes.

The people that were going to vote right will probably still vote for him, but it might have motivated those on the left that were not going to vote the second round to go vote.

By the way that was stupid kast running his mouth that started it. But pinera repeated it.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:54 am

Well, lucky for pinera chiliens have an super short-term memory; otherwise everyine would be all over the list of failings from his first administration.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Post by admin » Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:33 am

Perhaps pineras campaign does know what it is doing.

He makes the contraversial statments about the marked votes, baiting the left.

The left reacts, then over reacts. Sanchez comes out saying she will personaly vote for guillier without consulting the parties in the FA.

now the FA is fracturing:

http://www.latercera.com/noticia/anunci ... te-amplio/

There is so muchh going back and forth by the hour it is hard to say who is ahead.

Guillier is looking more extreme left with every statement he makes.

What is left of the DC, has come out and said they will not endorse guillier. They will organize a new center political party. This is critical because inspite of the decline of the DC, they have a loyal core of older voters that are very center.

Essentionaly pinera, either by accident or intent, stired the pot on the far left colition, causing guillier to reach way left to try and rally those voters, and leave his center left flank open to attack. The DC and other proxies to pinera siezed the opertunity to peal off the center middle class and liberal but fairly afluent vote of older voters that was guillier's center anchor in an otherwise very unstable center left colition. Depending on a bunch of young hippy anarchest to get out of bed on election day is a big risk.

In fact it is why i think sanchez's numbers were missed by the poles. That far left young vote is flaky. They might show up at the last moment, and then a they might not. They might be all excited by a canidate, then a tweet storm and 30 mins later, they are all against that canidate.
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