chile's migration crisis

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41southchile
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by 41southchile » Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:59 am

admin wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:26 am
well not sure i buy the argument in this bloomberg article, but let's see.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -different
I buy it, (the argument) here in Los Lagos region anyway,
it now has the lowest unemployment rate in the country, it dropped again last quarter to 2.8 percent. New businesses and construction are taking off. I know probably half a dozen people that are taking on Venezuelan staff to help with the new businesses they are starting or to grow their existing business.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:33 am

I sort of buy it, but it might be more accidental than anything.

the early people to leave Venezuela were the richer, better educated, etc. and very anti-chavez. some have been here since the early 2000's. they seen the writing on the wall when chavez came to power and things started getting stupid. only recently has there been a high influx of poorer less educated Venezuelans in any great numbers.

then chile slammed the breaks on immigration for the poor venezuelans, just as the poorest and most desperate were leaving Venezuela in large numbers. among the most recent wave, probably many of the true believers in chavez b.s. and generally the low productivity segment of the population.

Thus, the population that chile grabbed, was the most productive. the other countries, with hundreds of thousands more Venezuelans, the low productivity, but high demand on social services (e.g. health care system, housing, etc) out weigh the low productivity workers.

you know i think it might be a usefull tool, if the central bank, also had a serious say in immigration. rather than just raising or lowering interest rates and other traditional methods, let them be able to turn the labor spigget on or off a bit to adjust unemployment / inflarion mix. obviously, that would take some studying to get the balance right, and with the mix of other considerations, but....just an idea.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:54 am

The other side of this coin is that this "lack of wage inflation" has affected the middle class native Chileans especially in Santiago who this past generation had just climbed out of the poorer working class. My Chilean family has already seen multiple examples of this job market change and difficulty. I know many here think "well, tough fuckin shit" but ignoring this will change the political and social landscape as time goes on.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:46 pm

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:54 am
The other side of this coin is that this "lack of wage inflation" has affected the middle class native Chileans especially in Santiago who this past generation had just climbed out of the poorer working class. My Chilean family has already seen multiple examples of this job market change and difficulty. I know many here think "well, tough fuckin shit" but ignoring this will change the political and social landscape as time goes on.
yea, and if you watch the comments in immigration related articles, you seem to see a lot more anti-immigrant comments. It is not like that say the bottom 10 to 20% of the native chilean market is being displaced by immigrants, and then getting better paying jobs. they are simply being displaced. there are a lot of Venezuelans are able to also compete in the middle and upper management / educational positions too.

for fast boost of national productivity, i get that injecting a better educated, and willing to work cheaper, immigrant pop works; but, it does not solve the failings in the education system and skill sets in chile long-term. it sort of papers over the long term problem with raw short-term statistics. have you seen the national teacher strike?

thus, why i think the immigration system needs to better target the needs in the economy, with specific industries; rather than the haphazard immigration flows we got now.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by 41southchile » Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:12 am

admin wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:46 pm
eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:54 am
The other side of this coin is that this "lack of wage inflation" has affected the middle class native Chileans especially in Santiago who this past generation had just climbed out of the poorer working class. My Chilean family has already seen multiple examples of this job market change and difficulty. I know many here think "well, tough fuckin shit" but ignoring this will change the political and social landscape as time goes on.
yea, and if you watch the comments in immigration related articles, you seem to see a lot more anti-immigrant comments. It is not like that say the bottom 10 to 20% of the native chilean market is being displaced by immigrants, and then getting better paying jobs. they are simply being displaced. there are a lot of Venezuelans are able to also compete in the middle and upper management / educational positions too.

for fast boost of national productivity, i get that injecting a better educated, and willing to work cheaper, immigrant pop works; but, it does not solve the failings in the education system and skill sets in chile long-term. it sort of papers over the long term problem with raw short-term statistics. have you seen the national teacher strike?

thus, why i think the immigration system needs to better target the needs in the economy, with specific industries; rather than the haphazard immigration flows we got now.
They have had 30 yrs (post dictatorship) to try and fix education, the Venezuelans have only been coming in on any great scale in the last 5. Of course immigration doesn't solve the failings of education and skill sets in the population, but for a quater of a century they still weren't doing anything either . Dont confuse the issues , more like they need to get rid of ideological bs that contaminates both sides of the political spectrum to fix education and 80 percent of parents and students/teachers need to sort their shit out too then maybe we can get somewhere. I am happy for them in the meantime to paper over the long term issues with immigration if it means better more productive staff, can't wait another 25 yrs for nothing to happen
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:13 pm

well, chadwick is estimating 300,000 Venezuelans are intending to come to chile by the end of 2020, and from the comments under the article, chileans are generally not happy about it.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... omentarios

I actually think that number is fairly low estimate, based on the numbers so far in to the neighboring countries.

figure 3-4 million have left already; which is low, because the u.n. calculates that based on 2015 start date, and venezuela has been on the move for at least 10 years.

if the numbers increase to 7 million estimate, that would double the number more or less that have made it to chile. plus, I am sure there are more than a few 10's of thousands of venezuelans in the nieghboring countries, that would at some point be inclined to move in to chile, as things dont work out so well in say Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, etc. I think it will take some time for them to for example get settled, make some money, realise the grass might be greener in Chile. Many i am sure did not come further, simply because they did not have the resources. let them catch their breath, take stock, and i am sure there will be more.

As always, a real people mover would be a recession of any serious magnitude in any of the countries with large Venezuelan populations. I would not be suprised if another 1 million venezuelans trickle in to chile over say the next 5 to 10 years.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:28 pm

that number it seems is 8 million, or about 25% of the population of Venezuela.

https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2019/ ... n-america/
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by 41southchile » Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:40 am

admin wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:13 pm
well, chadwick is estimating 300,000 Venezuelans are intending to come to chile by the end of 2020, and from the comments under the article, chileans are generally not happy about it.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... omentarios

I actually think that number is fairly low estimate, based on the numbers so far in to the neighboring countries.

figure 3-4 million have left already; which is low, because the u.n. calculates that based on 2015 start date, and venezuela has been on the move for at least 10 years.

if the numbers increase to 7 million estimate, that would double the number more or less that have made it to chile. plus, I am sure there are more than a few 10's of thousands of venezuelans in the nieghboring countries, that would at some point be inclined to move in to chile, as things dont work out so well in say Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, etc. I think it will take some time for them to for example get settled, make some money, realise the grass might be greener in Chile. Many i am sure did not come further, simply because they did not have the resources. let them catch their breath, take stock, and i am sure there will be more.

As always, a real people mover would be a recession of any serious magnitude in any of the countries with large Venezuelan populations. I would not be suprised if another 1 million venezuelans trickle in to chile over say the next 5 to 10 years.
I get it, peoples worries, about immigration, its change(and a big one) and as the saying goes "I can cope with anything except change".
I too think the numbers are on the low side of what they are saying.
The thing is Chile could easily take another 2 or 3 million people and no one would notice, especially in small rural towns and comunas that are dying all over Chile because everyone is moving to urban areas. People sell up their potentially productive 4 or 5 hectares of land they inherited because it's too much work, and move to an urban area and buy a colectivo or some other vehicle and blow the rest, then they spend the rest of their days bitching and moaning about how bad congestion is or how crap the wages are in factories and immigrants are screwing them over.
People should be looking at this as an opportunity to revitalize areas of Chile that have been abandoned or something like that, there's plenty that could be done,
rather than the bs reactionary crap that's seems to come from people with no imagination or playing the victim all the time .
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:54 am

havip wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 4:43 am
Is it possible the Grand Minister Soros / his NGOs have had a hand in things?
how much were you paid for that political troll? who paid you? Trump? Russia? the Republican party? The chinese?

I see you are in Vietnam. I can not imagine there are more than one or two people in all of vietnam that even know who soros is, let alone has any idea what that right wing republican bullshit conspiracy theory is all about.

tell Trump to bring his troll jobs back to america again, because it is the only thing his voters are qualified to do.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:33 am

41southchile wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:40 am
admin wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:13 pm
well, chadwick is estimating 300,000 Venezuelans are intending to come to chile by the end of 2020, and from the comments under the article, chileans are generally not happy about it.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... omentarios

I actually think that number is fairly low estimate, based on the numbers so far in to the neighboring countries.

figure 3-4 million have left already; which is low, because the u.n. calculates that based on 2015 start date, and venezuela has been on the move for at least 10 years.

if the numbers increase to 7 million estimate, that would double the number more or less that have made it to chile. plus, I am sure there are more than a few 10's of thousands of venezuelans in the nieghboring countries, that would at some point be inclined to move in to chile, as things dont work out so well in say Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, etc. I think it will take some time for them to for example get settled, make some money, realise the grass might be greener in Chile. Many i am sure did not come further, simply because they did not have the resources. let them catch their breath, take stock, and i am sure there will be more.

As always, a real people mover would be a recession of any serious magnitude in any of the countries with large Venezuelan populations. I would not be suprised if another 1 million venezuelans trickle in to chile over say the next 5 to 10 years.
I get it, peoples worries, about immigration, its change(and a big one) and as the saying goes "I can cope with anything except change".
I too think the numbers are on the low side of what they are saying.
The thing is Chile could easily take another 2 or 3 million people and no one would notice, especially in small rural towns and comunas that are dying all over Chile because everyone is moving to urban areas. People sell up their potentially productive 4 or 5 hectares of land they inherited because it's too much work, and move to an urban area and buy a colectivo or some other vehicle and blow the rest, then they spend the rest of their days bitching and moaning about how bad congestion is or how crap the wages are in factories and immigrants are screwing them over.
People should be looking at this as an opportunity to revitalize areas of Chile that have been abandoned or something like that, there's plenty that could be done,
rather than the bs reactionary crap that's seems to come from people with no imagination or playing the victim all the time .
yea at 18 million population, chile has a lot of wiggle room; just keep ot organized and not all at once.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by hlf2888 » Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:19 pm

admin wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:54 am
havip wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 4:43 am
Is it possible the Grand Minister Soros / his NGOs have had a hand in things?
how much were you paid for that political troll? who paid you? Trump? Russia? the Republican party? The chinese?

I see you are in Vietnam. I can not imagine there are more than one or two people in all of vietnam that even know who soros is, let alone has any idea what that right wing republican bullshit conspiracy theory is all about.

tell Trump to bring his troll jobs back to america again, because it is the only thing his voters are qualified to do.

Astute deduction, admin. Your spelling is laughable (not here but in many other posts) but your brain matter is intact and functioning well.

One of the reasons I chose Chile, over a myriad of other more popular destinations, besides the culture of kindness, the generosity of spirit, the climate, and the general state of sanity in their collective consciousness was the intellectual calibre of posters on your forum. Most people who stepped that far out of the box to choose Chile as their place of retirement or investment seem to be educated, well informed, more capable of critical thought and far less sheep-like than the brain dead posters on the more popular destinations. The intelligence of my fellow expats was definitely one of many deciding factors for me.

Slightly off topic, like yours. :-)

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Wed Jul 03, 2019 7:37 pm

Astute deduction, admin. Your spelling is laughable (not here but in many other posts) but your brain matter is intact and functioning well
.

funny thing about that.

my spelling has been bad since, well, forever. I decided at the start of this forum, I was going to worry first about something worth saying, and how it was said second (or last).

I also figured if I did it, mistakes and all, it might make a lot of other people less shy about posting (especially for ESL writers). Millions of people in the world, can write in perfect formal English, and have nothing that is worth saying or reading. If the ideas are crap to start, who gives a shit about your spelling, grammer, etc. No one will ever bother reading your errors, because the ideas are at best somewhere between dull to just stupid.

so, anyway, the "AI" spelling application on my cell phone, after several months of use, I have completely trained to spell even worse than me (like i need to delete the whole database). That data set is shared and used to train other phones and computer aplications all over the world.

Don't underestimate the power of artificial stupidity (i.e. people that think computers are smarter than they are).

which is o.k. I can cut Samsung some slack. I taught English in china for a year at a university. I figure I taught just over 2000 students to spell as bad as me. That was about 16+ years ago or so. Most went on to teach English. I figure each taught 1000 to 2000 more per year. So, in about 5 to 10 years, more or less, my spelling system should start showing up in dictionaries all over the world as the new standard. Problem solved. :shock:

The most widely spoken language in the world: bad English.

Kind of like the "queens" English. Believe it was queen Victoria, that in one letter spelled the same word 15 diffrent ways. That had to be confusing to the whole empire.

Have you seen the "consistent" punctuation and spelling used by Shakespeare?

No one would try to correct Shakespeare, any more than they would try to correct that ugly ass smile on the Mona Lisa.

It is all art.

😜
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