chile's migration crisis

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:59 am

The U.N. thing is sort of joke aimed at Bachelet personally.

I am going with they are padding the future electoral rolls on the left to insure they stay in power. Too many of the base on the Chilean left, have made it to the middle class, and now are starting to vote more right. The absolute devastation to the Christian Democrat party in the last round of voting pretty much confirmed that. A party that was in power for 30+ years, simply went extinct in under one election cycle. That is got to be terrifying to carrier politicians. Next on the endangered species list is the Socialist Party, although they still have a few of their tape worms embedded in the countries gut.

If Chile develops too much, too much of the country leaves poverty, then the left politicians and their friends with sticky fingers, loose access to the cookie jar.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:27 am

admin wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:59 am
(...)If Chile develops too much, too much of the country leaves poverty, then the left politicians and their friends with sticky fingers, loose access to the cookie jar.
And to be fair: that's normal, and 100% expected. There's a reason no serious economist gets behind the left agenda: it's not economically feasible for the long term. The "bonos" and other short-term income transfer actions serve to keep the left voters happy, and they are much less important when a country's economy is growing and people live better due to the wonderful connection between better purchasing power and quality of life.

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by Space Cat » Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:22 am

tiagoabner wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:27 am
There's a reason no serious economist gets behind the left agenda: it's not economically feasible for the long term.
Are we talking old-school Marxist "let's screw bourgeois" left or the modern soc-dem Nordic-like left?

There's literally one more long country with tons of natural resources that have free education for its citizens and higher taxes for its corporations. While I understand that there are some cultural differences, moving somewhere in this direction is a must.

Any country will not be able to prosper in future without at least high quality free primary and secondary education (see what's going on in the US). And Chilean public education is crap.

For this reason, I bet that Sanchez or somebody else from European-like parties from FA will win at least place in the second round in 2021.

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:49 am

I'm talking old-school Marxist, Chilean style left.

In my perception, the state is meant to represent the interests of its people. As such, improving the well being of the population as a whole should be its main goal. The methods used for that can change, but that's only expected, as no two societies are the same. State-ownership in strategic areas seems to be the way to go towards that goal, and implementing a transition towards that is in the interest of the population.

However, that same state-ownership must be connected to quality metrics and economic feasibility. In Norway's case, that is done through the use of funds from natural resources (mainly oil) towards these goals, which makes perfect sense: the resource belongs to the country, so the country sells it and invests the funds on its people.

It is quite clear that this is not how Chile's left intends to go on the long run. At least in my point of view, their interest in getting low-skilled immigrants is to renew their voting base.

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:07 pm

hey, what is the long-game bet that everyone is making on Chile (either expressly or implicitly)?

The bet is that Chile becomes a full-throated recognized developed country someday, and hopefully sooner rather that later.

Otherwise, if you just want cheap third-world living, there is a bunch of much cheaper and probably fun places to live.

To do that, a whole bunch of things have to happen. Most of them are on the agenda of the left and the right, the issue comes down to who do you think as a more real chance of achieving that with their plans.

Chile's not going to be a developed country, with a crappy education system. It is not going to be a developed country as a one trick pony copper economy, people living in cardboard houses, or with a bunch of morons stock brokers stripping the retirement funds with fees while loosing money, or whatever.

I am not sure there is a poor person in this country, that wants to be poor, given an option; and, I don't think your going to find very many rich people that would not like to be richer, given an option.

A vast majority of Chile is on board with that. What is holding Chile back is the extreme right with their heads up their rear (call them, the screw everyone at all cost club via unfettered capitalism) and the extreme left (call them, screw everyone at all cost club by law and politics). Neither one of those extremes will get Chile where it needs to go.

The stupid thing is, that the morons on the right, to get richer, need to fix the problems of the poor people on the left. The people on the left, to do their thing, need to figure out how to finance it; while not giving bonos for 1 million pesos to people, that cost the government 3 million pesos to give away and burning the economy to the ground to do it.

It is really very simple. You want to drive a Ferrari, you need to find a Ferrari's worth of income. You want universal education for everyone in the country, you need to find a methods to pay for a countries worth of education.

Not very difficult. Very much within Chile's ability to make it work. Chile only has 18 million people.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by frozen-north » Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:40 pm

admin" wrote:
The stupid thing is, that the morons on the right, to get richer, need to fix the problems of the poor people on the left. The people on the left, to do their thing, need to figure out how to finance it; while not giving bonos for 1 million pesos to people, that cost the government 3 million pesos to give away and burning the economy to the ground to do it.

It is really very simple. You want to drive a Ferrari, you need to find a Ferrari's worth of income. You want universal education for everyone in the country, you need to find a methods to pay for a countries worth of education.
Somehow I still can't find those 1 million pesos bonuses that you keep on mentioning.
Conoce los 11 bonos que entregará el Gobierno durante 2016

http://www.24horas.cl/tesirve/conoce-lo ... 16-1878292
And you keep on forgetting that the ideology of the Chilean right is that education is a problem that should be solved and paid for by the parents, and not by the government. And a similar idea goes for pensions and health.

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:23 pm

That one is from the last year, this year there are 33 bonos. Source: http://chilebeneficios.cl/category/area ... subsidios/

The biggest ones are as follow, based on the information and values given at the government "Bonos" website:
Bono de Protección: $285.576 paid over the course of 24 months.
Bono Base Familiar: up to $478.560 paid over the course of 24 months.
Bono Mujer Trabajadora: up to $479.760 paid over the course of 24 months.
Bono Invierno: $58.188. For people over 65 years old only.

Assuming the family gets only the first three, it's a total of CLP $1.243.896, or roughly USD $2,000 over the course of two years. Of course that's not going to get anyone rich and there are certain conditions to get the bonos, but it should be fairly simple to game the system in order to maximize the earnings IE. undeclared income and informal pay.

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by Space Cat » Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:30 pm

frozen-north wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:40 pm
the ideology of the Chilean right is that education is a problem that should be solved and paid for by the parents, and not by the government. And a similar idea goes for pensions and health.
Yeah, they are basically status quo people who are only useful to wake up lefties from a corrupted dream (like it happens right now with Piñera).

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:31 pm

Oh, and I actually forgot the biggest one: the housing bono.

The poorer families get up to CLP $21.211.821 (not a typo, roughly USD $33000) to purchase houses (source) and the medium class can get up to CLP $13.357.570 (or roughly USD $21000) in discounts (source)

The medium class discount is actually relevant for the immigrants coming to the country. While I assume most of them don't know about this bono before coming to the country, they will qualify for it once they have Permanencia Definitiva, as long as they earn up to CLP $1.602.908 per month.

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:36 pm

This flyer from the housing program is very interesting: http://www.minvu.cl/incjs/download.aspx ... rantes.pdf

It shows that indeed they are trying to cater the program towards foreigners as well, possibly as a way to develop a voters base. Thoughts?

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by bobserb » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:44 am

''Guillier promete eliminar la deuda del CAE del 40% más pobre ...
www.elciudadano.cl/politica/guillier... ... bre.../27/
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9 hours ago - La eliminación "de inmediato" de la deuda del CAE al 40% más pobre de los deudores, y el fin del "monopolio" de las AFP, fueron dos de las ...

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by tiagoabner » Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:19 pm

I really underestimated the importance of these immigrant-accessible housing bonos. I had some small talk today with the owner of a Korean restaurant in Recoleta while having lunch and there is a lot of Koreans coming due to this bono. They are mostly medium to low skill workers from the countryside and from poorer areas coming due to the lower life cost and easy access to housing discounts. It's quite hard to beat what's basically an USD $20000 immigration incentive, and I actually agree with their point of view.

Per him, both him and his son got their houses under this incentive, and they get people in through work visas as "specialized cooks" or whatever for their businesses.

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