chile's migration crisis

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41southchile
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by 41southchile » Mon May 21, 2018 4:01 pm

admin wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 12:52 pm
Simple.

If half a million+ poor uneducated people show-up on the door steps of the united states, germany, etc, not that big of deal. It is a rounding error in their stats.

If half a million+ poor uneducated people show up on the door of chile's economy, size and development, it chile's poverty rates will increase just as chile is finally making progress. It seriously moves the needle.

That extra 500,000, in 10 years, doubles chile's poverty rates.

Yea chile could absorbe that, but not all at once. 10,000 or 20,000 haitens a year not that big a deal. 100,000 or 200,000 a year, no way.
But there is not 500000 in 10 years or 100000 or 200000 a year is there ? There has been what ? Between 100 and 150 thousand over the last few years aprox and now the tap has been turned off, so how will that double Chiles poverty rate ? Presumably the poverty rate will continue on its downward trend as it has over the last 3 decades, a lot of the Haitians will go into work ,and even if it is min wage they will still be working. A few will probably become disillusioned with Chile and my guess is the government will offer fares home for those that want to return to their families which will take more out of the equation. Criminals will also be exported back to Haiti. As you pointed out before the biggest threat to the social progress Chile has made so far is technological change, and what the country is going to do with the millions of unskilled/uneducated Chileans that are no longer going to be employable in the coming decades because they will be replaced by robots, the Haitians are just a red herring and not the real issue that the country needs to wake up to.
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

41southchile
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by 41southchile » Mon May 21, 2018 4:49 pm

mem wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 3:53 pm
admin wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 12:52 pm
Simple.

If half a million+ poor uneducated people show-up on the door steps of the united states, germany, etc, not that big of deal. It is a rounding error in their stats.

If half a million+ poor uneducated people show up on the door of chile's economy, size and development, it chile's poverty rates will increase just as chile is finally making progress. It seriously moves the needle.

That extra 500,000, in 10 years, doubles chile's poverty rates.

Yea chile could absorb that, but not all at once. 10,000 or 20,000 Haitians a year not that big a deal. 100,000 or 200,000 a year, no way.
I am hearing the same thing from wealthy chileans(business men, lawyers, etc) in Santiago and Vina. Most of the concern is around Chile being a developing country with a relatively low population and the systems simply can't handle the scale of haitian immigration in such a short amount of time. The majority of the Haitians are competing for the low paying retail/service jobs with chileans resulting in significantly less jobs for the chileans. This not only creates animosity, increases the poverty rate and increases unemployment, at the same time the haitians are often abused by the chilean business owners, taking advantage by paying them less, making them work longer hours, screwing them anyway they can and the haitians don't always know their rights, like the native chileans do. It's a problem of scale but has bad effects in multiple ways, some of which are only beginning to be realized. It is not really the haitians fault at all. They are just people tryng to find a country that has jobs for them, because haiti is in dire straights. They could be from anywhere, with a similar economic status and in similar quantity in as short a period of time
I don't know if personally I would be listening to what wealthy Chileans (business men lawyers etc) would be saying, I learnt along time ago that money doesn't necessarily equal any sense of a clue in what is happening in the world. In fact more than half the time I find taxi drivers or the local shop owner has more of a clue than the "wealthy", who maybe wealthy in a physical sense of the word but not in a knowledgeable sense. This is not to say they are all clueless but sometimes those sort of people have a very narrow focus and not much of a big picture idea. Not sure if it is because of their insular way of life where they don't really mind mix it up with anyone outside of their social class or their over reliance on economic commentators or the trend of the month. Maybe If more of the wealthy in Chile were a bit more committed to investing in R and D (,their investments are pitiful and some of the lowest in the OECD) maybe if they were a bit more interested in things like CSR or offering apprenticeships and other innovativeness, (the list goes on,). I'm not saying all Chilean wealthy are stuck in a mentality that is 50 years behind where a lot of the world is currently at, as there are a few I respect and are doing good things, but for the most part for me their opinions are not very relevant.
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by mem » Mon May 21, 2018 7:34 pm

I mentioned the opinions of these people , because they are basically all older people who have been around for a long time. They have seen (according to 1) amnesty offered 5 times previously to people groups illegally trying to get in and then they do what was just done, stop further immigration and give amnesty to whoever was here before to cauterize and not inflame the situation. They remember the change that the previous cycles have caused, and are saying Chile has never faced this kind of volume in the previous amnest/immigration inundation cycles. I agree, having a lot of money (multi-millionaires in USD) doesn't mean you are wise. But in chile it generally means you are older and have as a result seen a lot more of the comings and goings on that have shaped Chile over the past 50 years. It also means you are at least smart enough to hold on to your wealth and preserve it through all the shenanigans that have transpired over the last several decades. All of the people I was referencing are straight up sharks and I mean that in a positive way, they are savvy, aware, and usually a few steps ahead of what they are facing. In my personal experience, the people I am referencing, they happen to be pretty wise and sharp people. That doesn't mean they are right in this case, but the observations they offer seem to make sense and seem to mirror the reality that I have witnessed living out in the country.

On another side of it I think there is some debate about whether Chile really wants to be a melting pot like the US and the EU have become, opening the floodgates of immigration. Chile wants to be seen as "welcoming country" on the hallmark card, but they want Chile to stay Chilean by and large.

Chileans in general, from my experience are not really interested in becoming a melting pot. They don't see multi-culturalism as a good thing. Its a tolerance issue. They want Chile to remain mostly Chilean with a small marginal tolerance for immigration...the fraction of a fraction of rich'sh Germans, Americans, etc. This is a markedly different vision that what we see in the US today or the EU. Where multi-culturalism is a limitlessly positive thing in many peoples minds. The minority view in the US and EU is multi-multiculturalism is a bad thing, build the wall, moratorium on immigration, etc, but this is the majority view in Chile...and Hungary, and Japan, and Poland. It's an opinion of what these citizens want the identity of their country to have now and 50 years from now. Chalking it up to them being dumb is really not accurate. It is merely a desire to determine their own destiny and character. Countries are going to fall on both sides, without either being wrong or bad. OF course it seems "bad" to the immigrant who wants to escape their own poor destitute birth country where there are no jobs or opportunities and just want a great first world country where they can get/have a job and start building a life, etc. However, its two sides of the same coin. Self-determination, both in terms of people and countries is a freedom that I don't think should be controlled by some world body. If a country wants to open its borders and have massive immigration, they should be able to do it. If a country doesnt want massive immigration they should be allowed to not have it without having a stick shaken at them.

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by 41southchile » Tue May 22, 2018 3:29 pm

mem wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 7:34 pm
I mentioned the opinions of these people , because they are basically all older people who have been around for a long time. They have seen (according to 1) amnesty offered 5 times previously to people groups illegally trying to get in and then they do what was just done, stop further immigration and give amnesty to whoever was here before to cauterize and not inflame the situation. They remember the change that the previous cycles have caused, and are saying Chile has never faced this kind of volume in the previous amnest/immigration inundation cycles. I agree, having a lot of money (multi-millionaires in USD) doesn't mean you are wise. But in chile it generally means you are older and have as a result seen a lot more of the comings and goings on that have shaped Chile over the past 50 years. It also means you are at least smart enough to hold on to your wealth and preserve it through all the shenanigans that have transpired over the last several decades. All of the people I was referencing are straight up sharks and I mean that in a positive way, they are savvy, aware, and usually a few steps ahead of what they are facing. In my personal experience, the people I am referencing, they happen to be pretty wise and sharp people. That doesn't mean they are right in this case, but the observations they offer seem to make sense and seem to mirror the reality that I have witnessed living out in the country.

On another side of it I think there is some debate about whether Chile really wants to be a melting pot like the US and the EU have become, opening the floodgates of immigration. Chile wants to be seen as "welcoming country" on the hallmark card, but they want Chile to stay Chilean by and large.

Chileans in general, from my experience are not really interested in becoming a melting pot. They don't see multi-culturalism as a good thing. Its a tolerance issue. They want Chile to remain mostly Chilean with a small marginal tolerance for immigration...the fraction of a fraction of rich'sh Germans, Americans, etc. This is a markedly different vision that what we see in the US today or the EU. Where multi-culturalism is a limitlessly positive thing in many peoples minds. The minority view in the US and EU is multi-multiculturalism is a bad thing, build the wall, moratorium on immigration, etc, but this is the majority view in Chile...and Hungary, and Japan, and Poland. It's an opinion of what these citizens want the identity of their country to have now and 50 years from now. Chalking it up to them being dumb is really not accurate. It is merely a desire to determine their own destiny and character. Countries are going to fall on both sides, without either being wrong or bad. OF course it seems "bad" to the immigrant who wants to escape their own poor destitute birth country where there are no jobs or opportunities and just want a great first world country where they can get/have a job and start building a life, etc. However, its two sides of the same coin. Self-determination, both in terms of people and countries is a freedom that I don't think should be controlled by some world body. If a country wants to open its borders and have massive immigration, they should be able to do it. If a country doesnt want massive immigration they should be allowed to not have it without having a stick shaken at them.
Ok thanks for the reply, I suppose I didn't really make my point that clear i wasn't necessarily saying the rich don't know what they are talking about as clearly some do, and it's always a good idea to hear out what older people have to say as they have a lot more experience and have been around the block more than once.
I guess my frustrations were not exclusively aimmed at the rich in Chile it's just that they and NZ are my only benchmarks, but what I see a lot of in Chile is a lot of wealth concentration and not giving others a fair go, and not helping their beloved country that they claim to love so much. I'm not just talking about individuals here, it's a corporate thing too, just look at the growing offensive profits the AFPs and Isapres make, would it kill them or the mega wealthy in Chile to do a bit more for their country and its future rather than hoarding and hoarding more cash than they really will ever need.
As I say this is not an exclusively Chilean thing, but I see more examples of companies and individuals in other countries investing back in other aspects of society and the planet. I would love to hear of Chilean companies that are investing more than the average in R and D for example.
But anyway what's done is done and you can't really change the past I guess ,and there are some good things that government has tried to do,to move the country forward and focus on the wider economy and the future.
But I guess my original point is, and in reply to your last point, is that I personally believe there should be no restrictions and there should be free movement of people anywhere in the world. Because in my opinion what really is Chile trying to protect ? what is being a Chilean?, because the people I have talked to for the most part are open to the outside world and ideas that will help Chile moving forward with all the challenges the world has ahead of it the next few decades.
Self determination to me is kind of ridiculous, the more brains working on the world's problems the better every one on this one planet is going to be, having over 3 billion in the world with virtually nothing and another 3 billion only just eking out a living, while a few live the live of luxury protecting their own self interests is in my opinion very short sighted.
In my opinion If I stop and think where our great great great great grandkids could be and what sort of world we want them to live in then, then I find it very hard to comprehend this whole bullshit notion of self determination and locking up borders and depriving ourselves of so many opportunities.
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Tue May 22, 2018 5:05 pm

So this will the first test of the teeth in the new law:

This is just for the Región de Anto
http://www.soychile.cl/Antofagasta/Soci ... acion.aspx
http://impresa.elmercurio.com/Pages/New ... PaginaId=8

Sooo many illegals and sooo little regularizing their situation under this amnesty and the due date is tomorrow.

Not holding my breath as this is Chile which already rolled over and will roll over again and again. Cagamospo.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by 41southchile » Tue May 22, 2018 6:00 pm

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:05 pm
So this will the first test of the teeth in the new law:

This is just for the Región de Anto
http://www.soychile.cl/Antofagasta/Soci ... acion.aspx
http://impresa.elmercurio.com/Pages/New ... PaginaId=8

Sooo many illegals and sooo little regularizing their situation under this amnesty and the due date is tomorrow.

Not holding my breath as this is Chile which already rolled over and will roll over again and again. Cagamospo.
So if they don't register andthey get caught or picked up they get kicked out, is that right ? So a low registration should make those oppossed to them coming to Chile happy then ? as there will be less of them infecting Chile (to use the words of comments on social media)
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by 41southchile » Tue May 22, 2018 6:04 pm

Bahahaha you couldn't make this stuff up, maybe Chile could try crowd funding to keep immigrants out or pay for them to go home, na then again they are probably too cheap to chip in and are just happier moaning on social media
http://www.news.com.au/world/north-amer ... 10380d238f
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Tue May 22, 2018 7:48 pm

41southchile wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 6:00 pm
eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:05 pm
So this will the first test of the teeth in the new law:

This is just for the Región de Anto
http://www.soychile.cl/Antofagasta/Soci ... acion.aspx
http://impresa.elmercurio.com/Pages/New ... PaginaId=8

Sooo many illegals and sooo little regularizing their situation under this amnesty and the due date is tomorrow.

Not holding my breath as this is Chile which already rolled over and will roll over again and again. Cagamospo.
So if they don't register andthey get caught or picked up they get kicked out, is that right ? So a low registration should make those oppossed to them coming to Chile happy then ? as there will be less of them infecting Chile (to use the words of comments on social media)
No, I'm skeptical that Chile will be tough and will just set another amnesty date which should make the pro-immigrant at any price people happy and embolden the already law breakers that they can and will get away with much more in the future.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Wed May 23, 2018 12:11 pm

Well, the new head of immigration had to make a statement yesterday telling everyone that if they register, almost everyone will get a visa that did not have a criminal record.

the lack of communication, had lead to people being afraid to register. there were rumors floating around that people that registered would just be rounded up and deported.

Hey, it is why I have said anyone with regular immigration situation, to stay clear of this amnesty. there was, and still is, no clarity on what the end results will be.

I have a lot more news on this front coming also.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by fraggle092 » Wed May 23, 2018 1:59 pm

41southchile wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 6:04 pm
... maybe Chile could try crowd funding to keep immigrants out or pay for them to go home, na then again they are probably too cheap to chip in and are just happier moaning on social media
Don't hold your breath waiting for the crowdfunding....

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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by admin » Wed May 23, 2018 3:54 pm

o.k.

I am going to try clarify just a little bit, the massive amount of confusion that the administration has produced with the new immigration policy or whatever this is. Hopefully without creating too much more confusion in the process.

We have been getting reports of the Chilean consulates around the World telling people they can no longer apply for retirement and periodic income visas, or otherwise change to any sort of other visa, inside Chile.

Which is kind of consistent with what the department of immigration has been putting out in terms of conflicting public statements, that have no basis in law.

So, we actually requested an official position from the department of immigration.

At the time of posting this, we have confirmed that until at least August 1st, 2018, people may still enter the country under a tourist visa and then request a chance of status to another type of visa (work, retirement and periodic income, etc ).

So, if you are planning to do that, do it ASAP. Dont wait.

Where things get murky, is after August 1st, 2018, the government seems to be taking the position that they will stop all changes from tourist to other types of visa. For all other types of visa, all people must apply for it at the Chilean consulate outside the country.

Just one little problem with that position, we have some serious doubts about the legality of it. It is not up to the president of Chile nor the department of immigration, because the right to change immigration status is coded in to the current immigration law. They would need to change the immigration law, by august 1st, for that to be true. Well, we know just how fast congress is with changing immigration laws. Like the current one is what 30 or 40 years old?

Somehow, I think the administration is being rather overly optimistic about getting a new immigration law through by august. Still, in various public statements and positions, they seem to be trying to argue that it is under the authority of the president to end the right to change status from inside the country. there is a rather vague sense in their public statements, that they are gearing up to deal with any court challenges, or at least trying to discourage anyone from challenging that position.

Which, by itself, might be an effective immigration strategy. Just talking about it, may function to discourage people from even trying. If someone challenges it, then fine. grant them their appeal. In the meantime, they managed to create a massive reduction in the total number of people applying for changes of status from inside the country, and simply grant the change to the person that occasionally is well represented and knows that it has no bases in law if they fight it.

Let me put it this way. when bureaucrats spend way too much time in something as simple as an answer to an FAQ, getting technical about where the authority comes from for a certain policy, chances are that policy is bogus and they know it. they are reaching or stretching the interpretation of the law.

In any case, best not to get caught flat footed, in some sort of political fight. Apply now. Fix your visa problems now. Ás imperfect as the system is now, better the devil you know, then whatever surprise might be coming down the pipe. there is a chance (very small chance), that immigration will get easier and simpler to Chile after the new reform. However, I would not bet on it. Even minor changes at the department of immigration in policy, have, in our experience, resulted in massive bureaucratic messes. Assume it is going to get harder, and then everyone can be pleasantly surprised if it really does gets easier or simpler.

I will also repeat, anyone that is eligible for citizenship, or permanent residency, apply NOW!!! You dont want to be this close to citizenship or permanent residency in Chile, and due to some poorly executed change of immigration law, your immigration status becomes part of the collateral damage.
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Re: chile's migration crisis

Post by frozen-north » Wed May 23, 2018 6:29 pm

mem wrote:
I mentioned the opinions of these people , because they are basically all older people who have been around for a long time. They have seen (according to 1) amnesty offered 5 times previously to people groups illegally trying to get in and then they do what was just done, stop further immigration and give amnesty to whoever was here before to cauterize and not inflame the situation.
Five? Well, either their memory is failing, or their math skills.

Desde el retorno a la democracia, en Chile se han realizado ya dos procesos de regularización extraordinaria. En 1998, durante la Presidencia de Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle, y en la primera administración de Michelle Bachelet, en 2007. En aquellas oportunidades se regularizó la situación de aproximadamente 22 mil y 46 mil extranjeros, respectivamente.

http://www2.latercera.com/noticia/solic ... migrantes/
I agree, having a lot of money (multi-millionaires in USD) doesn't mean you are wise. But in chile it generally means you are older and have as a result seen a lot more of the comings and goings on that have shaped Chile over the past 50 years.
What? Only the rich get to old age?
It also means you are at least smart enough to hold on to your wealth and preserve it through all the shenanigans that have transpired over the last several decades.
Or that they were the ones doing those ' shenanigans'.

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