Chile 2017 Presidential Election

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Postby admin » Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:55 am

tiagoabner wrote:I'm not too familiar with how these bonos and free vacations work, as I've been here for only 8 months and I don't have that many local friends. Can someone kindly explain what are you referring to? Free government-paid vacations? Is that even a thing?


Yea, it is a thing. The cities have grants from the government for it. If you qualify for "at risk" income level (which is massive con game in itself), they will pay up to 95% of your families vacation.

The paid vacation is just one of the most absurd of the bonos (direct payments to someone for something or nothing). There are ones for families to do things like buy books for school. There is one if your family makes below a certain level, they just pay you a basic subsidy to bring you above the extreme poverty level. so on and so forth. Some are good, some are bad.

One of my favorite stupid subsidies is the trees in the patagonia. The government tells the land owners they can not cut down their native trees. So, there is a bunch of "accidental forest fires". The goverment then gives a subsidy for people to clean up the burned trees. They then give another subsidy to replant; with a catch. They have to plant "economically viable" trees such as none-native pine, etc.

The problem is most of these bonos are based on a poverty point system, that is easily gamed. People can artificially keep their income level low, to continue to qualify for all the benefits. Our last socialist mayor in Frutillar, was actively helping people game the point system to increase the amount of money the city was getting from the central government based on the number of "poor".

Here is an example, that I have told before on the forum, but it does a good job of illustrating how abused that system is. We had a foreign client in a rural area of the Patagonia that was sued by a neighbor over a road access to a property. The neighbor was using a free attorney from the government to sue. Well, applying sound strategic methods in a "know your enemy" sort of way, we went to investigate who it was we were up against.

It took very little investigating to find out the guy not only was not poor, but really really did not qualify for the free government attorney. He has sold some land recently, and had several hundred thousand dollars hiding under his wife's name. So, we took his free government lawyer away, to see if he was still interested in continuing the fight on his own dime. Of course he was not too interested in doing that, nor was he interested in the prosecutors and IRS finding out that he was ripping off the government, evading taxes, and so on. There was an abrupt settlement of that case.

My guesstimate is that something like 50% or more of the people receiving various poverty level subsidies, don't actually qualify. There is a whole different set of subsidies aimed at the middle class, but just talking about the most expensive ones to the tax payer, would be the poverty related ones. The people that actually need the help, are competing with a lot of people that don't need it.

I do believe that is an obligation of the government to help the poor receive more opportunities to get out of poverty. Generally good for everyone. I am however not for the corruption that goes with it.

Chile could probably investigate and prosecute the 50% that are ripping off the government, cut their payments, and then turn around and cut a direct check to those that really are poor for a mininum income sufficient to bring them all above the poverty level; meanwhile, do it and save money. Chile could wipe out poverty in 6-12 months, perhaps 2-3 years max; but, then who would the socialist and other lefty parties have to vote for them. Haitians?
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frozen-north
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Postby frozen-north » Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:27 pm

admin wrote:
The paid vacation is just one of the most absurd of the bonos...


From what I see, the vacation program is not a 'bono'. And I don't see any mention of a bono to buy school books.

Ojo: Estos serán los bonos que se entregarán durante 2017
Son 11 en total y varían desde el “Bono marzo” hasta parejas con más de 50 años de casados.

http://www.lacuarta.com/noticia/revisa- ... este-2017/



The problem is most of these bonos are based on a poverty point system, that is easily gamed.



It seems that the system was changed in January 2016.



Desde el pasado 1 de enero comenzó a regir en nuestro país el Registro Social de Hogares, que vino a reemplazar la antigua Ficha de Protección Social (FPS).

Este sistema se utiliza para identificar a las familias que están en situación vulnerable, y así poder entregarles beneficios estatales.

Para esto, antes la Ficha otorgaba un puntaje a cada familia. No obstante, ese método fue cambiado: ahora a cada una se les distribuye en tramos según su Calificación Socioeconómica

http://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/2016 ... lias.shtml



Desde el gobierno, estiman que ayudará a evitar la falsificación de datos para acceder a los beneficios sociales puesto que el nuevo sistema permite cruzar información con instituciones como el Servicio de Impuestos Internos, la Superintendencia de Pensiones, la Superintendencia de Salud y el Registro Escolar.

http://www.t13.cl/noticia/nacional/en-c ... r-gobierno




Programa Turismo Familiar:

El programa Turismo Familiar está dirigido a familias cuyos integrantes sean chilenos o extranjeros residentes permanentes en Chile que se encuentren dentro del 60% de vulnerabilidad socioeconómica, según el Registro Social de Hogares.

https://www.sernatur.cl/presidenta-bach ... -invierno/


Lanzan nueva temporada del programa Turismo Familiar: revisa aquí cómo postular

http://www.t13.cl/noticia/tendencias/cu ... o-postular


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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Postby admin » Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:38 pm

Here is the excuse directly from the guy most directly responsible for this credit down grade, Ministro de Hacienda, rodrigo Valdes:

http://www.latercera.com/noticia/column ... ecimiento/

As someone pointed out in the comments to his essay, the excuse of the low copper price being the cause of less investment, is bullshit. Peru is growing at 4%, and really depends on copper. Meanwhile, he says "maybe the tax reform hurt investment"? Perhaps? maybe?

hey, idiot!!! If you did not know in advance that would kill the economy, you should have never done it. In fact, you should have never been anywhere near that job if you did not know it.

He is trying to also take credit for the 5,000 mark reached Friday on the IPSA. Guess what weon? That 5,000 is reached by investments being made in Chilean companies (by both foreign and domestic investors), that are investing in other countries. You don't get to pat yourself on the back for that. Not only are foreign investors not investing in Chile, Chile's domestic investors are investing somewhere else. Their stock just happens to be listed on the IPSA and through ADR's in New York.

The overwhelming majority of the IPSA rise, is concentrated in companies like LATAM, Fallabella, Copec, BCI, etc. The largest companies, that have made the largest investments over the last 4 years, in other countries. Pretty much, if they are sufficiently large to have the capital to go international, they put it to work in another economy. Those companies did very little in the last couple years in terms of domestic investment, exactly because the morons in the government ran them off.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Postby 41southchile » Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:16 pm

It's not all negative Walmart is fairly confident
http://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/2 ... lones.html
A lot of the time all the negatively becomes self fulfilling prophecy sometimes I feel.
While not a fan of the current lot, (in fact the complete opposite of a fan) , the ratings downgrade sounds a little suspicious too, after 2008, I would take with a grain salt what ratings agencies think as well, I now place them in the same league as pollsters.
Piñera and his friends are sewing up this election quite nicely.
Most politicians in the world are all just self serving mediocre middle managers placing their own egos ahead of anything else, Chile is no different, some just slightly less mediocre than others.

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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Postby tombrad2 » Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:38 pm

At https://bradanovic.blogspot.cl/2017/07/ ... derno.html I just uploaded a quick review of the lat 57 years in Chile based in GDP evolution and his causes (sorry, in spanish), Im optimistic, Chile can recover easily if people realize what is required, we have all potential to take back the right road again
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Postby Andres » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:13 am

admin wrote:I do believe that is an obligation of the government to help the poor receive more opportunities to get out of poverty. Generally good for everyone. I am however not for the corruption that goes with it.

In my opinion, it is impossible to provide the former without getting the latter, to a greater or lesser degree.

If you incentivise something, people will pursue the incentive.
Make it beneficial to be poor, and you will get more poor people . . . AND more people pretending to be poor.

(Sort of like the "disability" scenario.)
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Postby admin » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:08 am

tombrad2 wrote:At https://bradanovic.blogspot.cl/2017/07/ ... derno.html I just uploaded a quick review of the lat 57 years in Chile based in GDP evolution and his causes (sorry, in spanish), Im optimistic, Chile can recover easily if people realize what is required, we have all potential to take back the right road again


Yea, yea i get that. Chile is realy now just on par with the likes of belgium. It will be fine in the long term, and there is only a matter of months left in this goverment.

But we should not be in this position at all. Rather than investing in recovering the economy, we should be dealing with managing a healthy 2-4% growth. They knew it. Everyone has been saying this was going to happen since they started messing around with 3 years ago.

My problem is with the current administrations incrediable ability to stick their head in the sand. I will never get out of my mind the video of the knitting circle after the 2010 earthquake of bachelet and friends trying to make a decision about what to do. Right now we are in the final months if a socialist goverment. That tends to turn in to everyone shoving the silverware in their coat pockets as they head out the door; rather than taking immediat action to stabalize and reverse the economic tail spin.

The quedtion now is how much more damage will they do before they leave office, and will they spike any hope of the next goverment being able to fix it.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Postby admin » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:19 am

Let me put that more directly. Given the track record of bachelete and ecomics, perhaps the best we can hope for is the current goverment does nothing. No more bonos and take no more debt on the international markets.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Postby admin » Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:33 pm

so after this downgrade, the goverment has not provided any solution, sorry, how are we going to fix this, etc, other than to try to point the finger at external sources. If anything they are doubling down on spending, defending the increase in free education to 60% of bottom of the income ladder. Great, fine, should happen, but not right now. stabilize and consolidate the free education gains right now. I guess if you want it to burn out faster, that is something to cheer.

Now, they are moving forward however, spending millions of dollars promoting it on radio, TV, and everywhere else, the reform of the pension fund and the increase of 5% to be paid by companies. Now, yea, the pension system in general, needs to increase savings; but, you don't raise taxes another 5% on employers with 7+% unemployment and an economy on the verge of recession.

In what world, does that sound like a good idea?

Under a 3% growth, a 5% increase in cost of employment, would receive a bit of grumbling from companies, but more like a shrug of the shoulders. Under the current circumstances, it will probably be more like 'o.k., let's just replace 10% of the work force with computers'.

Not even just booting a few guys to balance the books, just eliminate the job altogether so they never have to pay the extra employment tax. What tends to happen is that companies suddenly get motivated to look at their work force, their process flow, and since they are hunting for a 5% savings, they stumble across another 5, 10, 20% of their work force inefficiencies that can also be automated. The net results, is 5% increase in pension when you have no job = less than 0% gain on pension system for a whole lot of workers that will spend months or possibly years unemployed and adding nothing to their pension at all. The rest will get pay cut, because 5% more, on 5% less wage, is 0 gain.

Then also, the bachelet administration has already proven they can not do basic math. Never mind.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Postby admin » Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:32 pm

well, the New York times has a piece hailing Bachelet as the last women president standing in Latin America and how they all brought gender equality to the forefront, but were ultimately brought down by sexism.

https://www.nytimes.com/topic/person/michelle-bachelet

Got some news for the New York times. They were not defeated by sexism, but by running all three economies in to the ground while letting corruption run rampant or outright participating in it. The sexism that is being slung at them, is more of an effect than a cause. When they mess up, the first thing people reach for is an insult. Gender just happens to be the most obvious differentiation available, especially in less than politically correct Latin America.

They did prove one thing. Women can suck at running a country just as bad as a man.
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Postby Andres » Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:03 pm

Yeah, but do you really expect any better of the New York Times?
Look at their pro-Hillary claptrap!
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Re: Chile 2017 Presidential Election

Postby admin » Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:42 pm

Andres wrote:Yeah, but do you really expect any better of the New York Times?
Look at their pro-Hillary claptrap!


yea, the left seems to have pretty deep connections to the New York times. The right in Chile seems to have pretty deep connections to the Wall street journal.

That entire article read like some intern knew nothing more about South America, and decided to google it. It was a gross over simplification of all three administrations, and the domestic politics involved. It is like comparing apples, oranges, and basketballs. They are not really comparable or similar on any level.

The corruption in Argentina that Fernanda was engaged in was making Maduro blush. She sold herself as the second coming of Eva.

Rusof, well, she was wrong person, at the wrong time, for the wrong job. She had to know she was going to fail. She had political target on her back the moment she was elected.

Bachelet, well, she sucked as president the first time around, she just had a healthier copper price as a tail-wind the first time, so it did not damage the country nearly as bad. Her real inability to manage the country only became apparent after the earthquake, where her decisions literally lead directly to people dying and a whole lot of other critical mistakes were made public (e.g. she sent all the stored aid in the country for emergencies, to guess where? Haiti). However, her reputation was saved by how little time she still had in office. Had, for example, that earthquake hit in the middle of her term, I am not so sure the country would have reelected her again. At an 18% approval rating, this time, think that is the end of her political carrier. I am not convinced she wanted to be president again. Everyone I know, that knows her, says she really did not want to run again.
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