Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Chile Investment, how to invest in Chile, what to watch out for when investing, economic issues, currency exchange in Chile, and more.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Postby admin » Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:18 pm

Seen 645 today.

Article on bloomberg about international investors using chilean companies as a proxy to safly invest in the region.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... l-the-risk


I have been doing this for sometime now, and getting good returns. It should get even better as the neighboring currencies and evonomies recover from the last couple of years of instability, meanwhile i have focused on the chilean companies that were doing big expansions in to the neighbors. Especialy colombia and peru. Many of those companies stocks got hammered because of the crashes in the other economies.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Postby admin » Fri Aug 12, 2016 1:17 pm

well, it did not help that the central bank maintained the interest rate at 3.5, and removed the tighting bias.

http://www.reuters.com/article/chile-ec ... SL1N1AS2L1
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Postby john » Fri Aug 12, 2016 1:32 pm

admin wrote:well, it did not help that the central bank maintained the interest rate at 3.5, and removed the tighting bias.

http://www.reuters.com/article/chile-ec ... SL1N1AS2L1


Sounds like a sensible action to have taken based on the inflation rate calculation.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Postby admin » Thu Aug 25, 2016 5:19 pm

so, I was watching bloomberg tv. They mentioned the Chilean peso. What was interesting is they looked at the peso, and how it strengthens just about every thursday, of every week. I did a quick chart check, and it does appear that just about every wensday to about friday morning, there is a bump in a peso.

The explanation they came up with is because the mining companies sell dollars on Thursday to make payroll on Friday. Perhaps worth testing.

Guess for those with dollars to exchange, avoid Thursday. Perhaps if someone is interested, it would be worth looking at checking some longer dated charts in detail to crunch the numbers.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Postby admin » Thu Aug 25, 2016 5:42 pm

while talking about the peso, hitting around 663 today, here are a couple things that will move it.

I love this quote
"There’s no money, understand. There isn’t a single f-----g peso," Codelco Chief Executive Officer Nelson Pizarro said at a conference this week when he outlined the urgency of cost and spending cuts.


Yea, the cash cow is broke, and Bachelet boys are trying to spin it as if nothing is wrong.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... rs-run-dry

After going neutral, it looks like the Chilean central bank is set to lower interest rates.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ntral-bank

Then we got the fed playing chicken with the markets. Will they raise, won't they raise, no they wont, yes they will. Like any time someone from the U.S. fed opens their mouth, there is a different story that comes out. Which I translate to: they don't have a single f-----g clue what they are doing, or how to get themselves out of the hole they have dug themselves and the rest of the world in to. When they start talking about "rethinking" their policy "framework", means the one they got is not working.

We all know what happened back in January when they tested the waters with a .25 increase. The markets crashed. Try doing that 4-8 times over a year to get back to some normal like interest rates. This global market can not handle it. The global asset bubble is too massive. Too much money on the table, and no way to take any of it off for most investors. What are they going to do, move 10+ trillion dollars in to negative yielding bonds for safe keeping while the markets find a bottom?

If grandma at the fed does not grow a pair, I think the oil market might make the decision for her. The problem is that when oil spikes, it is an economic killer. It might get her the inflation she is looking for, but it ultimately kills off any economic growth in its way.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Postby admin » Thu Aug 25, 2016 6:09 pm

Hell, none of that even scratches the geopolitical mess we have right now.

We are about 1 bullet away from WWIII in the middle east, eastern europe, and asia. Putin knows the U.S. is super fragile right now with the frigen election mess.

We have Iranian gun boats taking runs at U.S. vessels twice in 24 hours in the straits of hormuz. Turkey sends tanks in to syria, with "nato air support", to bomb, the U.S. supported kurds, that the U.S. is arming and training, to fight ISIS, while turkey cuddles up to Putan. Last week two F-22 went at it with russian planes over syria, because they were bombing U.S. troops on the ground. While Putin is refueling planes in Iran. Putin has moved tanks in to eastern Ukrain, and added another 40,000 troops just over the boarder.

I was watching a WWII documentary the other day, and was having trouble watching the parts about how Czechoslovakia was invaded. The parallels between how hitler was allowed to take Czechoslovakia without as much as a strong word by the western allies, and how Putin was allowed to take the Ukraine is just too frigen obvious too be coincidence. If he can take a bit, no one does anything, well, hell, why not just take the rest. Exact same play book that Hitler used, and it worked. Putin has openly mentioned that he admired Hitler.

I really think the U.S. sticks it's nose in to way too many things around the World, but what the f---k are they thinking these days? They got the U.S. military running all over the global right now, but nothing they are doing seems to have any coherence, direction, or objective. What stopping a bunch of ISIS trolls on twitter is the objective, while rubbing wings with russian migs over Syria? Does that make any frigen sense, from the stand point of promoting piece?

When was the last time Russian and american war planes were that close together in a combat zone? Korea? Possibly Vietnam? Does that sound like a good idea, ever?

We are going to be really, really frigen lucky to get through the next 6 months (about the time next president is sworn in), without some mega economic collapse or major international conflict erupting (or both).
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Postby Rhodolite » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:55 pm

"the mining companies sell dollars on Thursday to make payroll on Friday"

Weekly payroll in Chile?

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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Postby fraggle092 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:12 am

Rhodolite wrote:"the mining companies sell dollars on Thursday to make payroll on Friday"

Weekly payroll in Chile?


There is a demand for USD from immigrants sending money home to Peru, Bolivia, etc. at the end of the working week. Many of these workers are employed informally, and are paid daily or weekly.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Postby eeuunikkeiexpat » Fri Sep 02, 2016 3:26 pm

admin wrote:so, I was watching bloomberg tv. They mentioned the Chilean peso. What was interesting is they looked at the peso, and how it strengthens just about every thursday, of every week. I did a quick chart check, and it does appear that just about every wensday to about friday morning, there is a bump in a peso.

The explanation they came up with is because the mining companies sell dollars on Thursday to make payroll on Friday. Perhaps worth testing.

Guess for those with dollars to exchange, avoid Thursday. Perhaps if someone is interested, it would be worth looking at checking some longer dated charts in detail to crunch the numbers.

Didn't seem to work out this week. From my subjective analysis, Friday is always a crap shot as the currency markets overall are positioning for the weekend depending on perceived real-time world economic and political/military tensions
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Postby admin » Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:44 pm

yea, we had a run up due to the speculation over the fed raising interest rates, thus a strong dollar all week until the U.S. jobs report came out. The peso did not strengthen until this afternoon. We did get to 680 this week, before finally ending at 671 today.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Postby admin » Wed Nov 16, 2016 6:32 pm

Well, finally moved off that 650 or so level we have been stuck at for the last couple of months.

1 USD = 675.092 CLP

Just heard an annalists on bloomberg use Chile as a prime example of one of the safest emerging markets to invest in with the new Trump administration and pending interest rate increases. He had some interesting reasons. Beyond the copper bounce (which is likely speculative b.s.), he said that Chile was likely safe from any sort of trade related sanctions that a Trump administration might start lobbing at various emerging markets such as China or Mexico. Mostly due to the fact Chile was a net importer of U.S. goods. He also pointed out that the Chilean peso was less at risk of a strong dollar, due to not having the massive foreign debts that other Emerging Markets are sitting on. Higher interest rates in the States, stronger dollar, more expensive to pay back their debts.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Postby eeuunikkeiexpat » Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:12 pm

Dollar at highest since 2003; oil falls in choppy trade
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/asia-shares-w ... 00870.html

Who would've thought this would happen after a Trump win? I didn't.

CLP/USD almost 680. We may be heading to 700.

I doubt there will be a December rate hike unless TPTB want some really scary chaotic movements in stock, bond and currency markets and their resulting impact on world trade.
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