Fugger wrote: I believe that there is a human tendency anyway to identify too many causal relationships, where there is just randomness.
The true physicist in you is coming out. I might have added "where there is just dogma-supporting randomness." That is assuming that there is really an interest in discovering causality versus the crowd-pleasing coincidence. We could all make a good case for the relationship between drinking Nescafé and ending up with felony convictions in Chile. In fact, that is a study I believe should be funded.
I submit that the income-differences explanation is essentially a religious matter, unsuited to objective scrutiny and the banality of pedestrian causality, an imposition of a sort of Ptolemaic cosmology and correspondingly contrived calculation. Isn't part of many religions an attempt to comfort those with failed aspirations by providing some claptrap invention to excuse their shortcomings and lack of success as not of their own making? I'm telling you, Nescafé is truly at the root of all this evil. The sooner the Chileans learn to make and drink good, fresh-ground coffee, the sooner we can expect a tapering off of the crime rates. So long as there is Nescafé, there will be darkness, plague, hunger, and variations in PSU test scores from one student to another.