Chile Forum

john wrote:

patagoniax wrote:

Fugger wrote:Very frustrating indeed.

patagoniax wrote:... the Ptolemaic cosmology model, Catholicism, Citibank, the Irish, motor-vehicle airbags, and the English system of weights and measures ...

You were supposed to ask what was wrong with the Irish.....

Okay, so tell us?

Fugger wrote:

regioncentralX wrote:Scenario : Hard landing in Chile

Impact on real estate - city, rural, Santiasco, regiones - and other related stuff like crime, social instability, etc.

DISCUSS

Primary impact will be on CLPUSD exchange rate.

sg2011113044947.gif

Real estate: with a couple of exceptions (offices in El Golf, vacation homes in some places) the excess inventory is not too bad, so price impact should be limited. New construction is likely to suffer, though.

Fugger wrote:I'm giving it a try:
muchas gracias...

1) SG Report that claims that copper price is no longer a good indicator of future recessions, because prices will stay high even of demand comes down.
well - this may be arguable...?
Most forum members seem to disagree. So Dr. Copper is neither dead nor did he have to renounce his PhD in economics.
Phd's are not renounced or retracted, even posthumously...?

2) Simon Hunt market analysis indicating that there are two major impacts on Copper prices in 2012: reduction of global business activity and substitution, both of which support a bearish case on Copper.
indeed - we concur...!

3) A number of URL links that China is in for a hard landing, which is expected to have a major impact on Copper demand (through the global business activity transmission).
again, china's future is questionable (economically)
BUT (in caps) we would never disregard TPTB ability to pull a rabbit out of the hat
(and indeed, it remains the year of the rabbit for a short time more...)
but the dragon takes over on January 23, 2012
and pulling dragons may be more problematic?

4) Scatter plot is a screen shot from Bloomberg terminal showing the relationship between CLPUSD (x-axis) and Copper Price in USD (y-axis). Each point in the graph represents a calendar week. Correlation is -0.52. This confirm (at least on a backward looking basis) what most forum members would agree, i.e. that a decrease in Copper price leads to an increase of CLPUSD.
scatter graphs are somewhat chaotic - best "line of fit", etc...
bloomberg can do better -imo
numerical quasi~correlations may look "interesting" mas o menos...
but ultimately - the "bottom line" (of fit) remains...
Cu down - USD up (dead cat bounce) - CLP weaker = hence, better for exports?
but things can (and will) get complex...?

5) Early stage discussion whether Chilean real estate might be another victim of a global hard landing.
now that...might prove interesting - for future reference?
some accessible foreign fiat in a domestic buyer's market...
could perhaps be some sweet deals out there...? (rhetorical)
eyes open, suerte...?

greg~judy wrote:could perhaps be some sweet deals out there...? (rhetorical)
eyes open, suerte...?

Fugger wrote:... good thing for Chile because as a result of tight supply even with reduced demand as a result of slower worldwide growth, price will stay high.

regioncentralX wrote:Scenario : Hard landing in Chile

Impact .... other related stuff like crime,

greg~judy wrote:Phd's are not renounced or retracted, even posthumously...?

greg~judy wrote:again, china's future is questionable (economically)
BUT (in caps) we would never disregard TPTB ability to pull a rabbit out of the hat
(and indeed, it remains the year of the rabbit for a short time more...)
but the dragon takes over on January 23, 2012
and pulling dragons may be more problematic?

greg~judy wrote:Cu down - USD up (dead cat bounce) - CLP weaker = hence, better for exports?
but things can (and will) get complex...?

patagoniax wrote:Crime is an independent variable in Chile. It has little causal relationship to the economy, and crime rates here are fairly stable regardless of ups and downs in economic conditions.

regioncentralX wrote:Scenario : Hard landing in Chile Impact on real estate - city, rural, Santiasco, regiones