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how long does the euro have left...?

about a week...
0
No votes
maybe a month...
4
12%
now be nice - perhaps a year?
9
26%
no worries - at least 4-5 years more?
10
29%
such fiat can "live" for decades before inflating~imploding
11
32%
 
Total votes : 34

Re: R.I.P.... E.U./euro...?

Postby MarcusR » Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:09 am

The first time I went to Rome was in 2000, 2 years before the introduction of the Euro currency.

I made 2 important observations:
1) Wow, Rome was really filthy.
2) I paid 3000 Lira for a Pizza (the equivalent of 1,5 Euros), so that was really cheap, even in terms
of my lousy South African Currency (Rand).

The next time I went to Italy was just following the introduction of the Euro.
So it was interesting to see the change.
Most businesses had just done a straight (but false) conversion: 3000 Lira = 3 Euro.

So, effectively, overnight there had been almost 100% inflation.

I remember thinking at the time, "boy, that's going to come back to bite them in the £rse!"

From my subsequent 3 years of living in Italy I learned many things about the country and the people.
I observed how similar the politics was to those of many African countries (including my newly elected Post-Apartheid government, the ANC).
(I say 'newly' elected, even though they would have then been in power for 8 years, because that is quite new for African Governments. They are now going on 20 uninterrupted years in Government, but that's a whole different forum thread...)
How insular in thinking the population was (tunnel vision to the extreme). It also didn't help that one person owned most of the media.
And the attitude of the Government was predominately (and unashamedly) that the people exist to serve the State. (Definitely not the other way around.)
This was definitely a case of the tail wagging the dog...

The funny thing is that most of the 'problems' that have been highlighted in Italy now,
have been very apparent for the last 3 decades (and arguably the last 2 millennia), and even during the initial Euro currency boom.
The Italian business environment has always been a killer of entrepreneurial spirit.
They have draconian laws in place to protect the haves against the havenots. No secrets there.

But the funny thing is, it actually took Europe and the World to say the word "Crisis",
in order for Italy to actually be an Official crisis, even though it had always been operating in that category.

In Spain, many of my Spanish friends have been saying over the last few months that Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal will
forfeit the Euro Currency and return to their old (or another version of their) Drachmas, Lira, Escudos etc.
I disagree, and have been telling them that they forget about one very important thing:
The Macho Ego's of the Politicians of the Mediterranean countries.
To forfeit would be to admit that Africa really only ends at the Alps (or the Pyrenees).
(And all those dirty Greek, Portuguese and Italian politicians will also see much of their embezzled Euros devaluing ...)
And this is not something that the Mediterranean Politicians want to admit - that they are in some
way inferior to Northern Europe.

(Of the group of P.I.I.G.S, Spain is the only country that has actively and openly tackled Corruption in Government.
They got nailed because their economy was buoyed by the construction industry, which was largely driven by European investment...)

Interesting times ahead for the Euro.
I think that the group of PIIGS biggest 'export' will remain Tourism (and their National Iconic brands), and perhaps the face of the tourist
will change, but the gate keepers to Europe's Ancient Roman, Greek and Renaissance treasures (to which the present population have few ties) will remain the same incompetent bunch of Gatekeepers.

Basically, business as usual, with more taxes.
You don't actually think the politicians are going to suffer?
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Re: R.I.P.... E.U./euro...?

Postby greg~judy » Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:05 am

MarcusR wrote:The first time I went to Rome was in 2000, 2 years before the introduction of the Euro currency.
...
From my subsequent 3 years of living in Italy I learned many things about the country and the people.
...
Interesting times ahead for the Euro.
...
Basically, business as usual, with more taxes.
You don't actually think the politicians are going to suffer?

interesting 1st hand observations...
thanks for that!
g~j
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Re: R.I.P.... E.U./euro...?

Postby JHyre » Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:32 am

Nice post Marcus.

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Re: R.I.P.... E.U./euro...?

Postby MarcusR » Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:06 pm

Thanks :D

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Re: R.I.P.... E.U./euro...?

Postby Billhere » Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:03 pm

Yes indeed, where would we be without those who decide what is best for us, and then send it out as a directive to be obeyed by all and sundry.

I sometimes the British were like the French. Have a look at the latest dictat to emerge from Bruxelles, if they don't like the look of it, just ignore it.

But no, the British play by the rules. Only British bureauocracy could convert a two page memo regarding protective glass displays in open markets into a thirty seven page document which lays down absolutely everything, including, probably, the inside leg measurement of the person selling whatever it is hidden behind the glass.

Ah yes, what a job creator the EU is, hundreds of Euro MP's trooping backwards and forwards to whichever of the Government buildings they are using at that particular moment. Yes, there are two, and used for six months each. First Class rail travel, expenses, fly to and fro, a real earner, and if you asked the average Englishman who his Euro MP was he couldn't tell you. I don't know who mine is.

No wonder the EU and its money are held in complete disdain by many Brits.
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Re: R.I.P.... E.U./euro...?

Postby Another Joe » Fri Mar 02, 2012 7:58 pm

A recent article noted that Portugal has towed the line, basically accomplishing everything they've been told to do. The result? They're worse off than they were.

For those who think Ireland is out of the muck, there was a wonderful fire sale March 1st. Quite a few bargains to be had if someone had the clams and ability to manage. And emigration has jumped up to levels not seen in years, 1000 people a week. Interestingly, the article seems to have disappeared just as I was posting this. I found an excerpt though.

As many as 100,000 people will abandon Ireland by April 2012, according to the state-funded Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). The republic is set to witness emigration on a larger scale than in the 1980s, ESRI said, as people vote with their feet to escape high unemployment, rising taxes and growing unrest over Dublin's austerity cuts.
Young graduates in particular are leaving Ireland in search of better opportunities in Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
The rate of departure is set to be the highest in recent memory and overshadows the net outward migration peak of 44,000 in 1989.

http://www.newsrt.co.uk/news/a-thousand ... 22661.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... eland.html


Spain has basically promised not to meet budget restraints, building up its own boatload of sovereign debt. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... Rajoy.html

It just gets gooder and gooder.
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Re: R.I.P.... E.U./euro...?

Postby Afterburner » Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:12 pm

For the record, Ireland is hardly in the same position as the PIGS. It was placed 11th globally out of 82 countries in the 2008-2012 Business Environment Ranking of the Economist Intelligence Unit.

An annual EU report, released in October 2011, which looks at industrial competitiveness across the region and policy measures adopted by member states to improve competitiveness, named Ireland as one of the best performers in the region. Ireland scored highly in labour productivity, rates considerably above the EU average, along with the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Sweden and Germany. The economy was also rated above the EU average in many aspects of the business environment and work force. The proportion of firms in Ireland classed as "innovating" - those who had introduced new or significantly improved goods, services, processes, in addition to marketing or organisational innovation over a three-year period - was more than 50 per cent. The UK fell into the group where more than 30 per cent of all companies were innovating firms.

US companies have invested more than $165bn in Ireland, more than in Brazil, Russia, India, and China put together. During the decade to 2010, US investment in Ireland was three times that of China, a population of over a billion.

Google have their European headquarters in Ireland, as do Paypal, and other major internet firms such as LinkedIn. Major pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer and Merck also have their European bases in Ireland. Just in the last few weeks, Pfizer, Sky, and PayPal all announced major expansions, involving the creation of thousands of jobs. Others such as HP and Abbot Pharmaceuticals have also announced major expansions.

The agri-food industry also continues to defy the recession, contributing 24 billion euro to the Irish economy. Despite its small size, Ireland is the 24th biggest milk producer and 17th biggest beef producer in the world.
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Re: R.I.P.... E.U./euro...?

Postby Another Joe » Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:06 pm

Yumm.... I like milk and beef. But they're still no out of the woods yet.... People don't leave and have fire sales because everything is looking up and rosy. Sure, Ireland was no Greece, but there's still a lot of work to do... like leaving the EU?

Ireland is likely to need a second bailout when its current aid program ends, rating agency Moody’s warned today.

In its weekly credit outlook report, Moody’s also warned a No vote in the upcoming fiscal treaty referendum would bar Ireland from receiving further funds under the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/bre ... ing27.html


With Spain digging her heels in, this won't likely get better until dissolution.
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Re: R.I.P.... E.U./euro...?

Postby MarcusR » Fri Mar 09, 2012 6:24 am

Here is a very telling interactive diagram about the Eurozone debt and who owes what to whom.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

Check the members of the group of PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) and click Ireland last, to get some perspective.

Notice Ireland's Foreign debt per person.
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Re: R.I.P.... E.U./euro...?

Postby Afterburner » Fri Mar 09, 2012 11:54 am

MarcusR wrote:Here is a very telling interactive diagram about the Eurozone debt and who owes what to whom.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

Check the members of the group of PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) and click Ireland last, to get some perspective.

Notice Ireland's Foreign debt per person.


No one doubts the level of foreign debt, which is largely the result of malignant banks.

What's at issue is the condition of the real economy.
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Re: R.I.P.... E.U./euro...?

Postby Afterburner » Fri Mar 09, 2012 11:55 am

Another Joe wrote:Yumm.... I like milk and beef. But they're still no out of the woods yet.... People don't leave and have fire sales because everything is looking up and rosy. Sure, Ireland was no Greece, but there's still a lot of work to do... like leaving the EU?


Things will certainly get interesting with the announcement of yet another referendum.
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Re: R.I.P.... E.U./euro...?

Postby greg~judy » Thu Apr 05, 2012 3:24 pm

Currently going for the modest price of $1,550 with 6 more days left in the auction, today’s hottest Ebay special is the sale of the country of Greece.

In what could be one of the better deals encountered on Ebay, one can submit a winning bid for none other than the country of Greece, currently going for the modest price of $1,550 (although with 6 more days left in the auction, there is a small chance Goldman will outbid and use it as LTRO 3 collateral). Of course, since the country is worth much less than the debt (all 7 subordinated classes of it) any new equity buyer would assume, this is a trick auction: our advice – settle for nothing less than getting paid as much as possible for “buying” the country.

From ebay:

Greece ebay_0.jpg
Greece ebay_0.jpg (59.01 KiB) Viewed 229 times


From the item specifics:


I’m offering my country for sale. What is left of it anyway. Slightly used, low wages, low pensions, low expectations. Lots of sunshine though, free at the moment.

Many natural resources, minerals etc that are still untouched. Bureaucracy at its best. Great bribe-to-do system, over 20 years of experience.

Obedience at the IMF, bankers and the Troika is guaranteed, no questions asked.

The buyer will get for free 300 politicians, highly trained at the University of Fine Arts of Scandals. And free Greek Bonds with extremely high international market value. For confetti.

I will provide the best possible certificate that you will ever imagine, maybe even a custom one that you’ll ask.

P.s.
No hard feelings.


Questions and answers about this item:

Q: Is it possible to bundle your sale with Iceland? I would consider a package deal!
A: I’m sorry to tell you,but Iceland is in much better condition than Greece.
Q: I was wondering if you would be able to combine shipping with any future eurozone countries (i.e. Italy) you may have for sale. Also, would the sea between the islands be included or excluded in the package? Thank you for your cooperation.
A: I can arrange a big discount for any future transactions!
Q: Hi. I am very interested. However, I need your assurances that before I bid, you will exclude all corrupt banks, Goldman Sachs cronies, JP Morgan criminals, and the rest of the Draghi / ECB ex-Goldmanite corrupt insider trading white-collar criminals from this offer? I don’t want my purchase of a beautiful country to be tainted with satanic banksters. Thanks in advance.
A: Greece doesn’t need any of those to be f****d up :) As you can see, the offer includes our whole parliament! 300 of our finest politicians!
Q: Hi. Is it possible to deport Zeus before auction ends? To USA for example.
A: I’m afraid of the other god’s wrath. They might feel insulted,i cannot take any chance! I hope that you can understand my concerns.
Q: Hi. I would like to have this land mass shipped closer to home here, but there seems to be far too many bits and pieces. Are you able to compact it all together into one single parcel for shipping? I’m sure it’ll be more economical (if that term is understood?) to do it this way too. Cheers!
A: Hmmm… You may have a point here my friend. But i’m afraid that they may broke, they are way too fragile in order to pack them one on top of the other. Maybe teleportation can work! ;)
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