Moderator: eeuunikkeiexpat

effect of Humala winning Peruvian presidency?

Postby Andres » Sun Jun 05, 2011 10:56 pm

Exit polls indicate Humala will win the Peruvian presidency.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but it appears (from a non-Spanish reader) that Humala's recent statements and promises are not consistent with his historic passionate speeches. So it is anyone's guess what he will really implement.

I'm curious of the views of those who are familiar with the Latin American scene:
- what will be the response to his win by other Latin American Governments?
- what will the regional political effects be, if any?
- what will the regional business/trade effects be, if any?

It's a given that el gobierno de gringo will not be happy. But how will its actions affect the region?
"Blessed are they who have nothing to say and can not be persuaded to say it."
"Laziness is the mother of invention."
Caveat applicable to all I write: I might be wrong.
Andres
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
 
Posts: 432
Joined: Mon May 30, 2011 3:09 am
Location: formerly Oz; in Santiago from Feb 2012

Re: effect of Humala winning Peruvian presidency?

Postby john » Sun Jun 05, 2011 10:59 pm

Andres,

I cannot answer your questions, but I'm glad Humala won. :D
john
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
 
Posts: 1017
Joined: Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:11 am
Location: Vina del Mar, Chile

Re: effect of Humala winning Peruvian presidency?

Postby PenquistaDeCorazon » Sun Jun 05, 2011 11:03 pm

Too bad so sad. Daddy Fujimori will not get a presidential pardon from his beloved daughter. He can rot in hell for his corruption. He should have rotted in jail for his human rights record.
PenquistaDeCorazon
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
 
Posts: 1062
Joined: Sat Nov 13, 2010 1:50 am

Re: effect of Humala winning Peruvian presidency?

Postby gloriosopicante » Sun Jun 05, 2011 11:04 pm

...
Last edited by gloriosopicante on Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
gloriosopicante
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
 
Posts: 192
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:35 pm

Re: effect of Humala winning Peruvian presidency?

Postby PenquistaDeCorazon » Sun Jun 05, 2011 11:06 pm

Here are some takes that you might find interesting as they are expats takes on the Peru elections. Expats living in Peru of course. Their opinions coloured by their own political slant I imagine.
http://www.livinginperu.com/
http://www.livinginperu.com/features-22 ... -elections
PenquistaDeCorazon
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
 
Posts: 1062
Joined: Sat Nov 13, 2010 1:50 am

Re: effect of Humala winning Peruvian presidency?

Postby john » Mon Jun 06, 2011 12:45 am

PDC,

Thanks for the Expat links. Of particular interest to me is the Guardian article: Opinion: Why Wasington is worried about Peru

Not surprisingly, US geopolitics trumps concern for the exploitation of resources and the environment (by foreign mining companies) and the continued economic inequality in the face of impressive GDP growth.
john
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
 
Posts: 1017
Joined: Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:11 am
Location: Vina del Mar, Chile

Re: effect of Humala winning Peruvian presidency?

Postby PenquistaDeCorazon » Mon Jun 06, 2011 1:54 am

Yeah it would be interesting to hunt down wikileaks dating back to the 2006 election to see what exactly what they thought behind closed doors.
PenquistaDeCorazon
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
 
Posts: 1062
Joined: Sat Nov 13, 2010 1:50 am

Re: effect of Humala winning Peruvian presidency?

Postby JHyre » Mon Jun 06, 2011 8:03 am

See Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, El Salvador, Ecuador, (eventually Brazil?), etc for actual impact. Well that, and celebration by those who would view Cuba, Venzuela, Argentina, Bolivia, etc as success stories to be emulated....though I do not see very many who view those places as successful AND live there, odd, that. Easy to cast votes for lefty nutters when you get to do so from the distant perch of capitalistic comfort, hmm?

John Hyre
User avatar
JHyre
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
 
Posts: 1035
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:08 am
Location: Columbus, Ohio

Re: effect of Humala winning Peruvian presidency?

Postby patagoniax » Mon Jun 06, 2011 8:15 am

JHyre wrote:See Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia etc for actual impact.


I was sitting at a restaurant in up in Talara in northern Perú in the 1970s and realised I could not understand a word of what was being said around me. Turned out everyone in the place was Russian.

There was a lot of Soviet military equipment in Perú in those days. And lots of rumours about OGA skulking around trying to buy technology assessment samples.

Perú: Another mystery wrapped inside an enigma.
camino sin fronteras quisiera ser/
sin prisa ni motivo para volver
User avatar
patagoniax
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
 
Posts: 6206
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:54 pm
Location: XII Región - Patagonia Sur/ Magallanes y Antártica

Re: effect of Humala winning Peruvian presidency?

Postby JHyre » Mon Jun 06, 2011 9:02 am

Ni gavaryu pa russki? They left more than bad equipment.

John Hyre
User avatar
JHyre
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
 
Posts: 1035
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:08 am
Location: Columbus, Ohio

Re: effect of Humala winning Peruvian presidency?

Postby patagoniax » Mon Jun 06, 2011 10:35 am

JHyre wrote:Ni gavaryu pa russki? They left more than bad equipment.

John Hyre


Wouldn't that be saying [asking yourself] that you don't speak Russian, Tovarich?

Anyway, it seems not all the Russian stuff in Perú is undesirable. Sort of off-topic but ...the Chilean FFAA were supposed to be getting some high-altitude capable helos from the Russians, essentially what Perú already had (likewise Mexico and Venezuela and many others). A few years ago that would have been unthinkable in Chile. The FFAA in Perú have had MI-17 gunship helos for years (yes, what NATO calls the HIP, and to the uninitiated looks like a HIND) -- and those were designed for use in the Afghanistan theatre but also very well suited for Peruvian geography, if not for Peruvian helo drivers.

The Chilean FFAA, while Bachelet was in charge (she attended university in East Germany after all, and reportedly kept some ties to the former Soviet bloc) - had ordered five of the Russian MI-17V variant. Bachelet's office said the helos would be only for rescue, esp high altitude rescue (but you and I know that almost every variant of the MI-17 is readily converted to gunship configuration). And some engine variants allow op ceilings of over 6000 metres as well as heavy-lift in hot temps. Chile already has three Brazilian "Panther" helos for SAR missions. So for image purposes the explanation for the MI-17 was for SAR -- search and rescue. That is not a bad thing.

Image

This insistence on nonmilitary SAR ops proved to be the undoing of the deal. There was legal wrangling last year over the colour of the money. Bachelet initially specified that the funding would come from the Ministry of the Interior, to help mask the dual-use military capability of the helo. MinInt couldn't come up with the funding in the face of other competing needs (earthquake reconstruction). So then the funding was going to come from the Ley de Cobre, but that could only be used for "defence" purposes. And since Bachelet had claimed that the MI-17 missions would be strictly SAR, the congressional review decision on the Ley de Cobre funding came out negative. Bachelet put on her pretty face and said that the purchase of the MI-17 helos would be "ceded" to Perú and oh what nice neighbours we are....

Both the Euro and US helo lobbies were in the thick of this as well, but their near-comparable products (e.g., Pumas and Blackhawks) are considerably more expensive, and arguably not as cost-benefit and life-cycle-cost efficient. But we strongly suspect some very serious arm-twisting by the US, to keep the Chilean FFAA in the US DoD equipment club. There is a belief that old-guard MIL folks in the FFAACh don't really want Russian stuff. So it looks as though the appropriated funds will go to more US Blackhawk helos for Chile.

I doubt that anyone really cares at all about any of this.
camino sin fronteras quisiera ser/
sin prisa ni motivo para volver
User avatar
patagoniax
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
 
Posts: 6206
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:54 pm
Location: XII Región - Patagonia Sur/ Magallanes y Antártica

Re: effect of Humala winning Peruvian presidency?

Postby JHyre » Mon Jun 06, 2011 10:45 am

What little Russian grammar I once understand went down the memory hole many moons ago, I suppose an -esh ending would have been appropriate. Interesting note in re chopper politics. If only Soviet era ideas had less permanence than they do.

John Hyre
User avatar
JHyre
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
 
Posts: 1035
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:08 am
Location: Columbus, Ohio

Next

Return to Lobby

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users