Chile Forum

This is a continuation of this related thread on the presidential election.
topic3530-60.html

Now that Sebastian Pinera has won the presidential election, I thought we should start a fresh thread on this topic.

Any predications, suggestions, thoughts on the next 4 years?

Our family is very excited...all kinds of calls back and forth and very happy...

What I think most...because its still going to be slow in getting things done and the same buerocracy(sp) but it will be, it seems to me, a greater respaldo, for things going on...I don't believe bachilet, nor frei, to have been a bad presidents, except that they leaned to much on "hope" as a plan and i believe that Pinera will have more of a plan that involves concrete goals...riskier by far but I see him as willing to take the chance and push on it.

p

I think the big trick for Pinera now is to keep the country from being poled too far right. He sold his sole to the devil to get elected, I am just concerned the devil might try to cash in some chips.

Maybe more important for the forum,

WHAT DOES A PIÑERA ADMIN MEAN FOR DEVELOPED WORLD EXTRANJEROS IN CHILE?

Does Admin and associated law firm have any access to the ears of this new gov?

admin wrote:I think the big trick for Pinera now is to keep the country from being poled too far right. He sold his sole to the devil to get elected, I am just concerned the devil might try to cash in some chips.

I agree. I am also noting that El P was right about the LAN stock

For us, not sure the election means much but he promised to get tougher on crime so I would guess more papers/ID to be checked. Fruit and vegetables will go up as even more are exported. Less regulation of large companies, more mergers. He wants to merge the bourse(stock market) and banks further(and that worked out well in the US). It will be interesting to see how and what he does.

he promised to get tougher on crime

right there is a win in my book

There is a concern for me that the small business owner will have trouble under Pinera because large/good deals will be passed on in a business way to pinera affiliates which means that they will have a strong hand in dictating terms to the small business'...the right side of things in this instance will not associate themselves with any trickle down econmics...there will be a trickle down economy but it will end in the mouths of Pinera associates...

Small to mid-size business concerns will have a tough time because concessions will go to well placed pinera affiliates. Its going to be in some degree like what the Us expereienced in the 1880's....everything has to go thru the railroad and pinera owns it

p

I can't imagine a lot changing in four years. have you ever tried to do anything quickly here?

tell you what, it's festive and mental up here in santiago. brilliant atmosphere. when the chileans let their hair down it's one of the few times they seem particularly latin to me. it's gridlock with people hanging out cars, waving flags, tooting... not sure how on earth i'm going to be able to get across town to get my bus tho

if bureaucracy can get streamlined and the middle management civil servants can get refreshed, good.

The RM tells the story it’s pretty much on the count for what happened, of course its the largest block of the population.
They sure like Piñera in the south.


Esto es con el 96,61%de las mesas escrutadas. Los nulos llegaron al 2,62% y los blancos a 0,75%.

A continuación los resultados región por región:
Arica: Sebastián Piñera 52,43% Eduardo Frei 47,56%
Tarapacá: Sebastián Piñera 60,5% Eduardo Frei 39,49%
Antofagasta: Sebastián Piñera 47,8% Eduardo Frei 52,19%
Atacama: Sebastián Piñera 46,67% Eduardo Frei 53,32%
Coquimbo: Sebastián Piñera 44,37% Eduardo Frei 55,62%
Valparaíso: Sebastián Piñera 53,65% Eduardo Frei 46,34%
RM: Sebastián Piñera 51,82% Eduardo Frei 48,17%
O’Higgins: Sebastián Piñera 49,28% Eduardo Frei 50,71%
Maule: Sebastián Piñera 46,92% Eduardo Frei 53,07%
Biobío: Sebastián Piñera 50,14% Eduardo Frei 49,85%
Araucanía: Sebastián Piñera 57,51% Eduardo Frei 42,48%
Los Ríos: Sebastián Piñera 52,65% Eduardo Frei 47,34%
Los Lagos: Sebastián Piñera 55,92% Eduardo Frei 44,07%
Aysén: Sebastián Piñera 58,46% Eduardo Frei 41,53%
Magallanes: Sebastián Piñera 54,53% Eduardo Frei 45,46%

TOTAL: Sebastián Piñera 51,61% Eduardo Frei 48,38%

What will it mean for expats?

I think a Harvard graduate billionaire that owns an international airline (well use to own) and drops quotes from Deng Xiaoping in to casual conversation at the helm speaks for itself.

Yes, we do have a lot of political connections on the right. We also have a lot of connections on the left. I am not authorized to talk about it however until after the inauguration. It's a small country, so knowing people really does not mean all that much. I bet half the country has one or two degree separation to knowing the president, and just about everyone else in the country (I seen Tanka in the Temuco airport one day).

Our bigger day to day battle for our buisness and for expats in general is with the low to middle level bureaucrats in the government and in private buisness. All the current ministers on TV today sure had a deer in the head lights look to them, I am sure there are going to be some blank stairs around government offices in the coming months. I am also sure there is going to be a bit of everyone trying to steel the silverware after the party.

My biggest personal bone to pick with the left administration was the shear lack of qualifications of the people at all levels, and general rudderless direction the country was going. They were just too comfortable.

Many were simply there because they were not on the right, and had friends on the left. The people that survived and thrived in politics on the right over the last 20 years, have serious credentials. It is something Chile needs desperately right now.

It does not need to fall in to the Standard Latin American politics of electing the grossly under-qualified (e.g. Bolivia, Venzuela, Argentina, Peru ) when it is so close to finally being fully recognized internationally as passing over the development hump to being a real developed country that will not slip back in to poverty. I read an article recently that said that Chile has reduced the number of people in poverty from 45% to 15% over the last decade; yet, that number has reversed dramatically in the last year or two. Even worse, those that did reach the middle class are stuck there. They are stuck at lower middle class, and the left has offered little to no help for them to go anywhere else.

What I am trying to say is Chile has reached a development critical mass in both terms of social and economic development, that if Chile hesitates now it will never make it. The left was hesitating on so many fronts for lack of what I believe was primarily international experience, that something had to give.

As I was writing this, I stopped to go watch the acceptance speech of Pinera. He did something I have never heard from any of the politicians in Chile before. Pinera said, "Chile is not the biggest country, the richest country, or the most powerful country in the World but we can be the best country in the World."

Viva Chile!!!

A national vision. What a concept. Chile is facing the 'what now' problem on all fronts. It is time for Chile to come out of its isolationist shell, and start projecting some influence internationally and at least let the World know it is here.

The big thing that everyone is talking about that got Pinera pushed over the top however was the growing crime and drug problem. The left did not want to upset their base with being too harsh, and seriously gutted the judicial system and law enforcement system. Fine when everyone has cash in their pockets, but a serious problem when the country is suffering from unemployment. Unfortunately often those that suffer the most from crime, is the poorest people. Not the richest people.

As for the money flowing to concessions. We will see. I don't think it can get any worse at least. The Chile compro system that supposedly was a fair system for everyone to get government projects and grants, turned in to pure corruption the last 5 years or so. The requirements for all the government contract are published online, but the requirements are tailored so that one and only one company will ever have a chance of getting it. There is no open public bidding going on, and the money all goes to large companies. Very few small operator could ever muster things like posting a 10% bonds upfront, waiting for months to be paid, or spend the sometimes hundreds of hours studying and drafting a proposal just to compete. That money was going to their friends.

My biggest immediate concern for 2010 however will be the payback that is inevitably coming in the bureaucracy change over. For 20 years people on the right have had the doors slammed in their face, because they were people on the right or their families were known to be right. Just a family name was sufficient for a low level bureaucrat to discriminate against someone. Remember, one of the big political tools the left loved was filling government positions, even when not needed, to keep jobs flowing to their constituents. If you can get 10 people to do the job of one person, and it guarantees you a 100 votes from their family for it, well, that is just good politics when your political base is with the lower economic class of the country.

My concern is that it gets too out of control. I am sure some of it is deserved tit for tat type low level politics, but I am concerned it might really start interfering with countries ability to function.

So Chile was faced with placing a bet. On the one hand it was stagnation resulting in bureaucratic chaos, and on the other hand too much change resulting in some sort of chaos. As we are already more or less in bureaucratic chaos, trying something different can not be all that bad.

If all else fails, as said earlier it will take at least 4 years to really do anything and by then we can decide to vote them out. Everything happens in slow motion in Chile. My suspicion is that we will get the best the right has to offer and they will stay on their good behavior, because they got one chance to not piss everyone off and show they can do it or it will be another 20 years before they get elected again.

I am sure we will have much much more discussions about this over the next months and years on the forum.

On the party front, there is a live band playing in my neighborhood with people clapping. My neighbors are all having asados and parties. Kids have been playing up and down the street all day. Regardless of who won, it is exciting to see a country so unified and celebrating an election process.

There was a disputed vote today at one of the tables (some idiot after marking Pinera, wrote in some actors name under it). The head of the table held it up for all of cameras, and he heard out all the people about if it should be counted or not. I believe he finally determined that it was valid, but it was the fact that it was not decided in some back room with a bunch of unknown people counting hanging chads that would just be ignored anyway that was impressive.

Dang, Chile just lost a more important election today. The Chilean film "the maid" was nominated for a golden globe. They lost to a german film. Still great that a Chilean film and a Chilean actress was nominated. I still have not seen it, but it is on my to do list.

From the London Financial Times:

“This was a vote much more for a change of pilot than for a change of course,” said Patricio Navia, a political analyst. “Chileans want to see new faces.”

Pinera can set goals above and beyond what the right is about or where CHile is right now but that would be foolish and he is not about losing, but winning and getting it done in the course of it all it's (life) just what happens.

The oppsoition and negative shiz will be more about what opponents have to say about the change as about the better things that he does. In other words when the left's family business' are doing better it will be about the change as opposed to what he is actually doing, watch for it on a channel near you.

I said it in an earlier post and admin just said it now...the difference will be a universal vision that all Chileans(and expats) can plug into and see their place in it all...its not just going to be about 13 year olds getting birth control from bachilet's government...

It won't be faster or slower and not even more shiny but...measureable, like a stock ticker, they will have a number and everyone will get a look at it to see if its up or down...its not much of a gamble because the chart on Chile is on the up and it would be quite difficult to screw it up ....the work is in making it go up at a rate where the common CHilean can say, '..look we are on our way up..." In the past, CHileans would wake up and have no idea where they were, so for good or bad, its going to be meassured...

I would say that along with the futbol scores, it won't be long before Chileans know on a day to day basis the gdp, pcap income, world bank interest, copper prices by the ton and the metric ton...it may not be what they want to hear but I will bet that its going to be out there and as some one said once "..without a goal, you have no ...goal"

p

admin wrote:
As I was writing this, I stopped to go watch the acceptance speech of Pinera. He did something I have never heard from any of the politicians in Chile before. Pinera said, "Chile is not the biggest country, the richest country, or the most powerful country in the World but we can be the best country in the World."

Viva Chile!!!

Love the quote; I can't add much, but I will mention that as of tonight, Pinera's win is the #3 story on Drudgereport.com... that says it all for me. Wish I was there...