by admin » Thu May 21, 2009 1:41 pm
I am starting to see some very misleading reports around the wires about how Chile now has the highest confirmed cases in South America of H1N1.
Which, strictly speaking is true. We do have the highest "confirmed" cases for one simple reason, Chile has it's own labs. I believe they are reporting testing takes hours not days for confirming cases of the flu in Chile.
Everyone else is either too big to test (e.g. Brazil and Argentina) everyone or are sending their samples somewhere else (CDC in the States), or both. Their reporting times are lagging badly. Now they are moving from simply days to weeks for testing because those labs are overwhelmed with request from around the World. Even Mexico is still sending samples to the CDC.
I however have a very hard time believing that for example Guatemala with the free flow of traffic over the boarder only has like one or two confirmed cases. I seen a report that the first confirmed case was an old lady in a remote mountain town, and I happen to know the town from when I lived there. If someone in that town has the flu, the entire highlands of Guatemala has been exposed because of the way people are packed in to buses like sardines to travel the Panamerican highway in Guatemala. It would likly take as little as a day for a flu to be spread across Guatemala via the bus system. Doctors are lucky if they have basic antibiotics in those towns, let alone anything as sophisticated as Tamiflu.
Brazil and Argentina have way way bigger international flows of travelers than Chile.
Anyone that knows anything about the rest of Latin America knows the corruption, poverty, lack of resources, big populations, make it almost impossible to trust the numbers coming out of those countries for anything let alone something as potentially economically and politically damaging as H1N1 flu.
So, Chile just happens to have a health system that so far seems to be able to keep up with the monitoring. I can guarantee you that Chile in no way shape or form has the largest number of cases, just the largest number of confirmed cases.
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