Chile Forum

by **eeuunikkeiexpat** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:16 am

Please agro exporters! Please use your pitutos and family influences to get your CB to intervene in your free floating fiat pseudo commodity currency :!:

by **admin** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:32 am

We are just running though our yearly August to about November drop. At least it seems to have occurred every year for the last like 4-5 years. It bounces off about 450, and slowly climbs back up for the rest of the year.

by **greg~judy** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:35 am

admin wrote:We are just running though our yearly August to about November drop. At least it seems to have occurred every year for the last like 4-5 years. It bounces off about 450, and slowly climbs back up for the rest of the year.

This doesn't look like much of an annual cycle to g~j :?:

: CHP - 5 yr.png (6.37 KiB) Viewed 248 times

by **otravers** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:40 am

Save for the 2008 craziness, there's usually support in the 490-500 range. But with the way the global economy is shifting, long-term baselines might shift too. I'm happy we've finished paying our house this month, for the remainder of our renovations we can pace ourselves based on how costs evolve.

by **greg~judy** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:53 am

otravers wrote:Save for the 2008 craziness, there's usually support in the 490-500 range. But with the way the global economy is shifting, long-term baselines might shift too.

OK... let's go to 10 years...
That "support" level is only really evidenced over about 2 years... '05 - '07 :?:

And recently in '09-'10
Would have been nice to be buying pesos in the early 'noghties" though... nice levels for xpats then... just like '08
Question still remains... with global fiat volatility in this day/age...
What next?

: CHP - 10 yr.png (14.22 KiB) Viewed 240 times

by **GJJIM** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 12:31 pm

greg~judy wrote:Question still remains... with global fiat volatility in this day/age...
What next?[/b]

China is the next bubble, and the pin that pricks it will be the EU and/or the USA. In all the commotion that ensues, I see the USD as the go-to refuge, and IMO it would be foolish to bet otherwise. The CLP (or is it CuLP)? What happens to the price of copper when China, the U.S. and Europe all stop buying those ingots, at the same time?

by **eeuunikkeiexpat** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 12:42 pm

Except people have been saying that constantly for the past couple of years. Bubbles can and do go on and on and on for years longer than the experts or common sense predict. Then there are the unexpected economic black swan events that make all conventional analysis moot.

DYODD. BCWYT.

by **GJJIM** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 1:16 pm

Yes, the manias and malinvestments of bubble-economics often go on longer than we might reasonably expect. Because we don't know the timing, does that make the outcome less certain as the bubble(s) get larger? Many predict a demise for the USD based on vague notions of hyperinflationary money printing, or some new world currency, but I don't see that outcome. In times of economic turmoil the USD is the last domino, and that is where wealth will flow to find a haven. Exchange rates still follow the law of supply and demand.

by **eeuunikkeiexpat** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 1:25 pm

I sense you poking fun at some posters here. Likewise they think your US dollar as a safe haven is quite flawed.

Like I said, everyone must DYODD.

You place your bets and let the chips fall where they may. Black Swan? All bets may be off due to force major.

The scoffers of USD/CLP at 675+ and gold back way below 800 have been proven correct thus far. But broken clocks are right for a second twice a day so who know what will happen? What if China is able to pull off tapping their domestic demand for former Walmart exported gadgets?

For the copper watchers, the traditional rumor is that a rising copper price signals a war in the near future. :alien:

by **greg~judy** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 1:28 pm

China is the next bubble, and the pin that pricks it will be the EU and/or the USA. In all the commotion that ensues, I see the USD as the go-to refuge, and IMO it would be foolish to bet otherwise.

Quite frankly... we see it exactly the opposite.
The USD and Euro are set for the imminent fall - well before any "China bubble" might burst...
Let's remember who are the creditors and who are the debtors, eh?

But then... as eeuu states... there are Black Swans on the horizon -
And all bets about anything could be moot?
And it might certainly be imprudent to "bet the farm" on the USD.

Back on the CHP topic...
In the meantime... for the sake of g~j's shallow self-interest + the CHP... :wink:

We see the price of our favorite Chilean vino only going up -
Now this is a black swan, swimming nearer

: black swan.jpg (24.7 KiB) Viewed 786 times

by **otravers** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 1:34 pm

greg~judy wrote:
otravers wrote:Save for the 2008 craziness, there's usually support in the 490-500 range. But with the way the global economy is shifting, long-term baselines might shift too.

That "support" level is only really evidenced over about 2 years... '05 - '07

I don't think support means what I think you think it means! Support means a foundation level that you rarely go beneath, and rebound from. It's funny how, when I look at the same 10-year chart, I draw a different conclusion. 500 is the long-term support.

If you're constantly at the support level, then you have a flatline. In most cases though, a currency/stock/whatever is not testing its support base but once in a while. When the dollar was on the way up, well by definition it was not testing its-long term support and went well above it. Now you can play around with the time series and get a different value, it's all relative but I rest my case.

by **greg~judy** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 1:37 pm

I don't think support means what I think you think it means! Support means a foundation level that you rarely go beneath, and rebound from. It's funny how, when I look at the same 10-year chart, I draw a different conclusion. 500 is the long-term support.

Agreed...

Chile Forum

Re: Chile Peso 1 USD = 675+, and 700 here we come

Re: Chile Peso 1 USD = 675+, and 700 here we come

Re: Chile Peso 1 USD = 675+, and 700 here we come

Re: Chile Peso 1 USD = 675+, and 700 here we come

Re: Chile Peso 1 USD = 675+, and 700 here we come

Re: Chile Peso 1 USD = 675+, and 700 here we come

Re: Chile Peso 1 USD = 675+, and 700 here we come

Re: Chile Peso 1 USD = 675+, and 700 here we come

Re: Chile Peso 1 USD = 675+, and 700 here we come

Re: Chile Peso 1 USD = 675+, and 700 here we come

Re: Chile Peso 1 USD = 675+, and 700 here we come

Re: Chile Peso 1 USD = 675+, and 700 here we come

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Need Help In Chile?

Phone From Outside Chile: 1-917-470-9653 ( USA to Chile)
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Chile Forum

Who is online

Need Help In Chile?

Phone From Outside Chile: 1-917-470-9653 ( USA to Chile) In Chile Land Line: (56) 65 421 024 Cell Phone 747 97974 (From a Cell Phone in Chile dial with no other numbers)

Phone From Outside Chile: 1-917-470-9653 ( USA to Chile)
In Chile Land Line: (56) 65 421 024
Cell Phone 747 97974 (From a Cell Phone in Chile dial with no other numbers)