Re: Chile and the International Economic Crisis

Postby GJJIM » Thu Dec 10, 2009 11:39 pm

Laura55llc wrote:"It's a stealth stimulus," says Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics, a consulting firm specializing in real estate and the California economy. "The quicker these people shed their debts, the faster the economy is going to heal and move forward again."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126040517376983621.html


There are two sides to every debt, and the lenders in these mortgage dramas are often more than willing to ignore the truth if it buys them more time. Every large bank in the U.S. would be insolvent if their books showed these properties at their true market value,. I know people in California who are trying to get their loans modified, but the banks delay and delay. Both sides desperately want a bailout and with 2010 as an election year, they may get their wish. The honest people who bought houses they could afford and who pay their bills are the ones who will be screwed with higher taxes and a devalued dollar.
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Re: Chile and the International Economic Crisis

Postby admin » Sat Dec 12, 2009 11:22 am

The U.S. IRS is opening international audit divisions and hiring more agents for joint audits with other countries including an office in Panama:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5BA45320091211

It looks like the banks did get an extension of time until 2012 in to the house bill.
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Re: Chile and the International Economic Crisis

Postby oregon woodsmoke » Sat Dec 12, 2009 6:13 pm

I think it is too bad that the USA is going to pursue her citizens outside her borders. But, you know, the population voted in a socialist government, and the downside of all the free socialist goodies is that someone has to pay for them. They aren't really free.

I suspect that most of us who want to live outside the USA are using income from inside the USA. So Uncle Sam is already getting his cut.

For those of you earning income inside Chile, it is probably going to be low enough to not "qualify" you to pay taxes. For people with real businesses, pay attention to your bookkeeping and deductions, and you should be OK. Except for you guys from California. California comes after you for her cut, no matter where you live.

Everyone gets caught in the net, but I think the government is really targeting all the big corporations who moved off-shore to avoid paying taxes. Hey, maybe if they aren't saving on the taxes, they will move back into the States and bring some of those jobs home? No? I don't think so, either. You bring them back by reducing their taxes, not by increasing their taxes.
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Re: Chile and the International Economic Crisis

Postby admin » Sat Dec 12, 2009 9:43 pm

I don't think everyone is quite appreciating the rock and a hard place that this law puts Banks in Chile when dealing with Americans.

The practical effect will be something like this.

Some yoko attorney at the various bank headquarters in Chile will have his secretary write up a little pamphlet that gets distributed to all the bank branches. Likely he will get a pamphlet from some government agency, that got one from another government agency, that got it from the embassy, and so on. What starts out as 3,000 pages of legal text, international law, and hundreds of studies and comments on those studies will be boiled down to a page of bullet points.

It will explain in a page or two that in order to open an account for an American citizen (no matter how long they have lived in Chile), they must do a bunch of extra paperwork, get approval from x office, y office, and so on but will politely emphasize at the end of the day it is just better not to try because it will likly not be approved anyway.

The under educated and trained desk jockey at the branch that generally does not know what a SWIFT code is, the OECD, the U.S. IRS, or much of anything other than how to fill in the one form he was trained to fill in when they hired him to open accounts for Chileans, will simply turn to the American and tell them it is not possible.

It will not matter how much money you have. It will not matter who you know. It will not matter what the intent of the law was. Basically, it will not matter. Their eyes will cross, and that will be the end of the discussion as they tell you it is not possible to open an account. The bit about a $50,000 exemption will likly not trickle down to them as a bullet point. If by chance it does, they would not know how to alter accounts to comply with that.

Now for Americans that already have accounts, some middle manager is going to look for all accounts in their bank owned by American Citizens and simply close every single one of them. There will not be an explanation or an opportunity to file an appeal. They will simply site your contract as sufficient reason (which is all they need). If you do push it, perhaps they might offer you a new contract. I would not hold your breath for this to be a priority for the banks (not much is).

Why do I believe that is how it will translate in to Bank policy in Chile?

As I mentioned before, Chile is still one of the few countries with bank secrecy laws. It is illegal for a Chilean bank to comply with this law that is before the U.S. congress right now in its current form, regardless of what screws the U.S. congress thinks they are passing. They can not, even by voluntary waver of the client, disclose any information about checking accounts (savings accounts are not protected) to third-parties including foreign countries. So the banks can not enter agreements with the U.S. IRS to comply with this law.

So, that leaves Chilean banks with a couple of options. They can simply close all American Citizens accounts and refuse to open any new ones, pay the 30% withholding this law proposes on their assets in the United States, or withdraw from all financial investment / buisness with the United States.

You can see which is the cheapest and quickest option.

The bank secrecy law in Chile would have to be significantly altered, and to alter it in such a way that it does not run afoul of whole mess of other laws is no easy trick from what I understand. The constitutional guarantee of equal treatment of property by foreigners and Chileans comes to mind, among many others I am sure.

We have a right leaning government about to come in to power by all indications. Changing that law I believe would be very expensive, and I doubt many on either side of the political spectrum want their account information exposed to the U.S. or anyone else.

Something has got give in the Chilean congress one way or the other in regards to foreigners and accounts. We also got the OECD breathing down the neck of the Chilean banking system, the U.K. is passing similar laws, and everyone else.

So, you see this is not just an issue of are you a good tax paying / reporting American, and 'what do you have to hide' sort of mess. Even though the Obama administration did not get included a presumption of guilt just for doing a financial transactions outside the country, the effect around the World will be essentially that for Americans living abroad. Chile is not alone in facing this dilemma. I bet a lot of banks around the World, just say it is too much of a hassle. I have read that many are already considering this, and just visit the Swiss bank web sites for an idea of what that means. They have big "GRINGO GO HOME!" signs all over the place now.

Well, this all academic at this point. Especially when you consider what a pain it has always been for foreigners to do banking in Chile. So on some level a lot of Americans in Chile will never even miss it. They will pull out their U.S. ATM card and buy their groceries as always.

The one that scares the hell out of me is when they decide to go after ATM and credit card transactions of Americans internationally. That one has got to be in the back of some congressional aids mind, now that congress smells the blood in the water of easy tax money with no political consequences at home.
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Re: Chile and the International Economic Crisis

Postby jehturner » Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:43 am

Well, maybe if enough countries have insoluble problems with it, the US will just discover (or be told) that it's infeasible... I can't imagine many countries being amused at the prospect of 30% withholding.
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Re: Chile and the International Economic Crisis

Postby otravers » Mon Dec 14, 2009 2:31 pm

FYI US financial institutions are already doing the same thing on the accounts of non resident aliens (i.e. 30% withholding - unless a more favorable double taxation treaty exists - on dividends paid by public companies, among other things). Foreigners with various types of holdings in the US have had to file W8 BEN forms for a few years now.
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Re: Chile and the International Economic Crisis

Postby GJJIM » Mon Dec 14, 2009 4:16 pm

admin wrote:Well, this all academic at this point. Especially when you consider what a pain it has always been for foreigners to do banking in Chile. So on some level a lot of Americans in Chile will never even miss it. They will pull out their U.S. ATM card and buy their groceries as always.

The one that scares the hell out of me is when they decide to go after ATM and credit card transactions of Americans internationally. That one has got to be in the back of some congressional aids mind, now that congress smells the blood in the water of easy tax money with no political consequences at home.


The IRS already has access to card transactions handled by Visa, Master Card, AMEX, etc. ATM debit card transactions with any of those logos will be logged in an IRS database somewhere. The only good news is the IRS is severely understaffed, and the people they do have are usually not the sharpest knives in the drawer. Outside of random audits, they only have time and money to go after the fat cat accounts, so us mice can still scurry about unnoticed. :alien:
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Re: Chile and the International Economic Crisis

Postby gregf » Mon Jan 11, 2010 10:47 am

So... The dollar is taking another steep dive after buoying up a bit just over $500-$510 or so.

I was reading a few are beginning to talk about a bubble popping in China. If that were to happen I know the price of Copper would have to take a huge dive... but if China popped would that mean the end of the world economy as we know it? :shock:

I'd be happy if we could stay at 500 or a little above. I get nervous when it gets into the 480s... I have a fear that one day its just going to pop and drop down to 400 or lower, which would REALLY suck.
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Re: Chile and the International Economic Crisis

Postby eeuunikkeiexpat » Mon Jan 11, 2010 12:38 pm

Nah, USDI is only at 77. When it breaches 72, then you should be worried. Target then would be 62ish.

More worrying is that though the dollar is near 78, the long bond is looking to break 115. I have heard 113-112 is the danger area.

We could see a waterfall drop if they both go down together on the next real plunge.

But the gubermint still has tricks up their sleeve, like forcing IRA and 401K money into Treasuries (à la Argentina).
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Re: Chile and the International Economic Crisis

Postby MaxiSweden » Sat Jan 30, 2010 9:25 am

This is a very good article about the situation in Chile these days. There´s Google Translation in the website:

<LINK REMOVED BY ADMIN NEW USER 10 POST RULE>
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Re: Chile and the International Economic Crisis

Postby jehturner » Sat Jan 30, 2010 11:55 am

Since someone resurrected the thread, it seems like the following concerns/events have mainly been responsible for pushing the dollar up (and the stock markets down) in the past week or two:

- Hardening of Chinese monetary policy
- Obama making noises about regulating banks
- The Japanese national debt
- The financial problems of Greece (and recently Portugal, I think) impacting the Euro
- A change in the regulations for what currency Chilean pension funds have to keep when they invest abroad

Last I heard, the market was still trying to figure out what long-term impact the last of these will have. AFAICT, it may mean they don't need to hold as many dollars once they've figure out how to diversify.

Apparently the peso recovered a bit yesterday because, if I understood correctly, Citigroup is exercising part of some option to buy the parent company of Banco de Chile for $0.5bn or so.

James.
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Re: Chile and the International Economic Crisis

Postby admin » Sat Jan 30, 2010 12:07 pm

There was also a downgrade on Chilean banks because of the low interest rates they are now charging are suppose to squeeze their profits relative to the run up in their stock price over the last few years. I don't think they appreciate how Chile's banking system makes money off of fees on everything, especially small consumer loans and credit cards.
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