Chile Forum

MikieO wrote:http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
If you haven't looked at this, you might consider it. . . .

Thanks to you, Mikie, and to Chuck, I watched all parts accessible. Even though I disagreed with some reasoning, I've found what's available of the series to be well worth the time spent watching it.

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:QUOTE OF THE DAY
Chavez nationalizes winners.
The US nationalizes losers.

Grimly amusing (I write as one who's taxed to benefit those who made the losers).

I am too tired to look up the source...about 14 months ago, Stanford released a study on the accuracy/validity of human instinct and perception in all aspects of modern american life...they found that the average human's instinct and perception of simple to complex situations in their own lives as well as broad social situations in national terms, proved to be more accurate (up to 80%) than the general information available at the time of the initial event...even inclusive of the experts...

In other words...the hillbilly, campesino, sailor, hunter... spider common sense that we all have tends to be the most realistic and true...so when each individual goes through the mechanics of relating one event or another to our own lives and what it means to us where we live...its true on average...outsourcing jobs overseas, that disco is bad---very bad or that most politicians are up to no good, the russians haven't changed and will never change...

so now go back and think about your gut feelings over the last year...the last five years, check your list..and those are the reasons we are in the mess we are in today...its fairly simple too see when you think of it that way...in fact glaringly simple and yet we were all too busy to do anything about it...you know how after accident you think back and wished you had turned left and gone down another street like you //felt// like you should have...now we are wishing that we had done something...

Its interesting that in the United States with everyone working all the time and what do we get...rebates for this and coupons for that....you can pay traffic tickets and bills on line, we win free trips and other offers but there isn't time to take advantage because we are working so percieved gains just drift away...the extra money we think we are earning is excahnged or "over-turned" by having to get to work more so we can ///relax/// more....but where is the time?

Its common among among our friends to buy food for the week to take to work but they are too busy in the morning to make it and too tired at night...the food gets thrown out...

We need to slow down and pay attention for these things that appear to be helping us advance but become so mixed up byt he time implementation comes around...do you really know all the people and issues we are voting on?...I mean every single one?...we just vote the party line, or the first one the list to get it done and go home...

when we slow down and make each effort count we will see a difference..that is, if we can...


p out


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Hi El P, as I sit up in bed listening to the surf here in El Tabo it's tough to know what to do, so in a sense I agree with you. The most unfortunate part of all this is that soon I must return to LA to make money to pay for this. For this week, I've got pretty much everything covered, including a big 2l bottle of "live" chicha.
I picked up a Chilean flag yesterday too so I am almost set. Crisis? Party line? The only party line I hear is "tiki tiki ti"

yea, just look at the hammering the neighbors are taking to get a reading on the bullet Chile seems to be dodging. I am interested to see how AIG Argentina fairs.

i look at the recent commitments that the Fed has made...100 billion to fannie, 100 billion to freddie, now 85 billion to AIG, and i think i remember something about a huge federal deficit BEFORE all of this....so now we're in the hole for...what...1.5 trillion? wtf?

there are so many aspects to this that grate against me, but the worst, for me, is knowing that the crooks who created this are skating away with millions while the typical working class guy, who had nothing to do with any of it, has more trouble paying his bills every month. it's obscene.

on the other, there were 50 million americans who voted for bush not just once, but TWICE! what can anyone say to any of those unconscious voters when they get sucked down into the whirlpool of debt caused by the iraq war, the irresponsible government, the high fuel prices....except....PAY ATTENTION!

the GDP of the US is somewhere around 12 trillion, so a 1.5 trillion debt is about 6 weeks of our output. i suppose this is why so many people still see the US as a safe place for their accumulated wealth. they know that we can get out of this mess if we can get some responsible government policies in place.

the trouble is, greed is built into the system and i see i declining sense of personal honor and social responsibility. it's a big ship going in the wrong direction and i'm not convinced that anything will change that. this is one of the main reasons i am taking the steps to get out. i hope i'm not acting too late. if the crash will just wait five years, i'll be grateful.

actually, there is a force powerful enough to change the direction of the US...a massive change in social consciousness. but i've been waiting for that for about 40 years now.....i'm not counting on it at this point in my life.

Russia halted trading after 17% one day collapse...The fact remains that the emerging markets charade was built on a debt pyramid and it is all falling apart now...Gold and Silver are soaring today, but oil and other commods less so. Main point..USD is level right now which continues to demonstrate that other currencies are falling...CLP=546.40....The credit excess perpetuated by the Federal Reserve and utilized by the world banking system has collapsed...The illusion and deception has met its master....

cali_chile48 wrote:he crooks who created this are skating away with millions while the typical working class guy, who had nothing to do with any of it, has more trouble paying his bills every month. it's obscene.

What's obscene is when business was good (2003-2005), employees of Wall St. banks were receiving bonuses equal to 3x their annual salary. They were creating these new, exotic investment vehicles which are now plaguing the financial sector. Those same vehicles made it easier to get money into the mortgage market (no clear ownership of the responsibility for making bad loans).

Back then it was "just a free market." "Why would you want government to regulate the size of someone's bonus?" But, today, society is on the hook (unless you want to see a *real* meltdown).

Like someone else said: "privatize profits, socialize gains." That's the problem with the US's socialized capitalism. When times are good, we emphasize capitalism (ignoring how it's socialized). We chant slogans about "free markets" and "self-made profits" and "personal responsibility." When times are bad, reality sets in and we socialize markets (because it's the lessor of two evils). We're unable to maintain a moderate, balanced position. When times are good, we (as a society) can't see more than 6 months out. When times are bad, we say in the most indignant voice: "Who let that happen?"

There's never any middle ground for moderate oversight and regulation. Always the extremes of bonuses that are 3x the size of someone's annual salary, and huge government bailouts. Never moderate regulation (which might impinge on bonuses, to spare society the cost of a huge bailout).

Mark

Mark

there are crashes and then there are CRASHES. it looks like a lot of people, myself included, have portfolios that are losing value now. anyone who owns real estate is losing equity. whoever has stocks or annuities is losing several percentage points per week, and it's gonna get worse before it gets better. this is a crash. we are in it now. i've accepted that i'm gonna lose 25%, maybe more.

i find some comfort choosing to see my losses as relative. i am losing along with everyone else, so my "purchasing power" is fairly stable, especially since i have almost no personal debt. even so, inflation may do me in....

but is this a CRASH? is it the beginning of a total collapse of the global finance system? are we going to need wheelbarrows full of dollars to buy a loaf of bread in 2009? are we going to have food riots in LA and New York? i don't think so....not yet....i can see that in 2030 or 2040....but now? nah. but....who the hell knows?

are we going to have food riots in LA and New York?

Not to get into worst case scenarios but the proximity to such an event increases in direct proportion to the C.P.I.
On the other hand, at the fonda, it increases in direct proportion to the C.H.I.C.H.A. Acronyms aren't my strong point but I bet Gloria can decipher that one.

I just read an article that suggested Lehman's collapse was due to speculation in commodities (especially oil), not the real estate market. Something like a margin call after oil prices dropped to a certain level, and then the London commodities exchange banned Lehman last Monday (fears it couldn't meet its margin call, which coincides with the news that began last Friday that Lehman was going under, and the Fed bailout on Monday).

I'm sure real estate had something to do with it, such as diminishing Lehman's cash reserves and ability to meet a margin call. But, it's interesting if the "bailout" phenomenon is taking on a new life, where Wall St. banks are being aggressive in other areas and expecting bailouts (moral hazard), and the public sees it as just one continuous event related to the residential housing bubble.

Back when the Fed slashed interest rates to help the banks (last Sept. through Dec?), there were stories that the banks who were supposed to be helped by this (creating liquidity) began a "carry trade." They began using the newly-available cheap money to invest in risky instruments. Makes me wonder if Lehman's (purported) exposure to oil had anything to do with that cheap money. Instead of using the money to renegotiate mortgage defaults, etc., they ran off and leveraged oil? And now they're being bailed out again?

Makes me curious what AIG's collapse is related to. Is it really the real estate bubble? Or, were they speculating on commodities too? And, did the Fed's cheap-money bailout last year contribute to their speculation?

I'm not really opposed to bailouts. I think the alternative would be worse. I'm just repulsed by the US habit of never taking small steps to moderate "free market" actions which we know could require society to "bail out" the "free marketeers." There's never a sensible middle ground. Even after we've bailed out banks with deep interest rate cuts, there was little talk about how to regulate those banks to limit society's exposure in the future. And now, it sounds like the bailout itself was abused, leading to more bailouts. This is so typically US.

Mark

All the central banks working together ...

I saw an article early this morning that had a tone of alarm - the central banks working together to avert disaster - but this one up a couple hours later seems to be much more positive, business as usual. This is not usual.

Fed, central banks move to boost global confidence

By ELLEN SIMON, AP Business Writer
1 hour, 47 minutes ago

NEW YORK - The Federal Reserve, working with central banks in Europe, Canada and Asia, pumped as much as $180 billion into money markets on Thursday to combat a seizing up of lending between banks that is intensifying global financial crisis.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080918/ap_ ... c6xidv24cA

Here's another one:

Central banks launch $300 billion assault on credit crisis

NEW YORK (AFP) - Central banks threw more than 300 billion dollars at the global credit storm Thursday as pressure mounted on Wall Street legend Morgan Stanley and Swiss bank UBS.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080918/ts ... ncebanking

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:QUOTE OF THE DAY

Chavez nationalizes winners.
The US nationalizes losers.

Another cute slogan heard today:

Socialism for the wealthy.
Capitalism for the poor.

Mark

So basically the Federal Reserve and Treasury have lost their minds and the U.S. CONgress pretends like they don't understand what is happening...Either way, what has happened here in the last weeks is what happened in October, 1929...What is coming will be unprecedented. Stocks will open with 'no bids'....Of this I am certain...The crash will be terrific and it will be worldwide....The time has come to set things straight from this fraudulent credit bubble....