Chile Forum

Thought this would be a nice topic to kick off the new South America forum at the all Chile Forum.

Venezuela and Ecuador have ordered troops to their boarders after Colombia strikes in to Ecaudor's territory after a rebel leader.

How do think it will impact Chile? How will impact the peso, oil, the dollar? Will Chavez do it? Will the United States get involved , and how much?

I just had two Chilean military HUE helicopters fly over my house in Temuco, heading North West. First time in 2 years I have seen a military aircraft in Temuco. I know the Chilean military goes on alert any time there is regional conflict like this as standard practice.

We also just talked to some friends in Colombia that work for the Colombian Government. They say everyone is supporting the strike against FARC inside Ecaudor. They are all pissed at Venzuela and Ecuador for playing them recently with the whole hostage thing.

What spooks me is how little has been said by the white house. War with Colombia is the same as war with the United States ( declared or not ), and I would not underestimate the Bush administration in terms of starting a regional proxy war against Venezuela before they leave office via Colombia. Colombia would have to have serious help though from the States to really poll this off, likely in the form of troops.

Bolivia and Peru have also been keeping fairly silent lately. Peru has a right wing government as I understand now. Bolivia is strange, being such good friends of Chavez and socialism. Brazil is the wild card that will likely make or break this. I believe they are siding with Chavez. Argentina seems to be staying out of it.

Venesuala equals another Iraq as far as Bush's resource war. Chavez won't play it the USA way.

Santiago Times article:

CHILE’S BACHELET: “COLOMBIA OWES ECUADOR AN EXPLANATION”

The analogy with Middle East is unavoidable:
-Colombia=Israel
-Ecuador=Lebanon
-Venezuela=Syria
-Farc=Hezbollah
-Chile=Saudi Arabia
-Brazil=Egypt
-Iran=Argentina

I dont believe this lead to a war, neither Venezuela nor Ecuador are prepared, Colombia has been in a War state for decades and has a powerful ally willing to support them. I see this more as an move to present Venezuela as "Terrorist supporting State", is a very eficient way to neutralize Chavez internationally, Cuba failed to support foreign guerrillas decades ago and probably will be the same with Chavez this time

They could go to war, but something tells me they won't. Wars are usually fought over land or resources. But then again, if it turns out Chavez and/or Ecuador have been dealing with the FARC, that in itself could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

By the way, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe says he will ask the International Criminal Court to bring genocide charges against President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7277313.stm

If there was a war, Colombia would probably win. I agree with tombrad's reasons for Colombia winning. And, I would hope they win. My wife is from Colombia and her best friend, an American citizen, is in Colombia right now, visiting family.

I agree with tombrad in that this likely will not escalate to a war, rather the chief outcome will be tainting Chavez's international image. It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out... I just keep wondering how long Chavez can thumb his nose at the US before action is taken against him; certainly a complicated situation given Venezuela's oil supply to the US.

The oil is another reason why Chavez cannot afford a war. Oil is a strength for Chavez in financing terms but a strategic weakness, because is an important reason to enforce the US engagement in Colombia support. Note that conflict is not against Venezuela but against Presidente Chavez, a friendly president will solve many problems to US: drugs, oil and terrorism. So, the US has many reasons to support Colombia just as support Israel, both as contention of menaces and defense of national strategic interests (oil supply)

The Colombian Military is supported hugely by the US Military....most likely it started by sending Colombian Mission control people to the underground place we have in Florida to and get a briefing on how they were going to locate Reyes by satelite, observe the routine and then simply plug in the missile cords to Colombian f-18's that most likely never entered Ecuador airspace and "side-pocketed" very light anti personel ordinance...colombian rangers(and US advisers) choppered in to get the stuff on the ground...computers....I am not surprised that the three survivors were not torn up more but I am surprised that they weren't fixed on the ground by the incursion team....I wouldn't be surprised if the area is actually in Colombia after all....border areas are very realative and without an exact definealble geographic feature its always hard to tell...everything was most likely videoed and compiled in a little show for Chavez and delivered to the Venezuelan embassy in Brazil or Uruguay before they knew it even happend...

Chavez sees himself as the next true castro and so is acting up to prove it like he has for the past couple of years...he forgets he isn't an island and like all jokers of the court he is beheld as the idiot son that speaks perhaps a certain truth but eventually someone doesn't find it funny....he is busy weaving the rope that will be used to hang him from a balcony at Miraflores....Chavez has new equipment but doesn't know how to use it completely....the only advantage is that its new....most likely doesn't even have spare parts set up yet and specific maintence issues that arise from Venezuelas use isn't clear...that cuts everything in half that he has....he'll most likely use more to protect the oil field and loading facilities....if I were the US errr...Colombia I'd go for that and that would be bad for Venezuela...the stress would pop chavez out fairly quickly..the high ups aren't done stocking the swiss accounts yet

the rest of Latin America wink at each other as they all go to the podium stating that colombia acted out, they all can read between the lines of the routine...they preform for the euros....more cash for social programs and investment and maybe not cash but an effort to keep it the same....colombia is on the teeter side of the iraq situation while the euros are on the totter side....they pander for advantage at the big OAS table and push for furthur bargins individualy with the US...what can we get for a softer statement and how much more can we get for total agreement...the usa shuffles the defense supply bag around to see what old retired destroyer battlegroup we can toss to who for a trade off and buy friends and patronage til the next time.

CHavez will sit tight ...he knows everyone will listen for a little while when he is out to see if he has given the go....really, he called Uribe a "criminal" in public...any latin that does that and doesn't back it up immediately ...isn't going to...those are strong words....(most likely the us has already <let> him know that he'll get a dirt nap if he pushes it all to far)....Uribe takes it because he has a bigger prize from the US tucked away....bigger than the glory and satisfaction of kicking chavez's ass....plus he most likely aware that from wht the US advisors have told him that chavez's days are like fleas on a dog...picked off one by one...chavez wants to distract from issues at home and his failure in the plebicito in december that he lost...(the malvinas principal)...ecuador...ecuador is ecuador....bucked up by drug money from the farc and others...payments apart to let the farc move in and out across the border on one side and it behooves them to play a big song for the world to hear and maybe get something on the sly from the US....

Also, after all that has gone on Colombia has really become a big friend of the us...especialy within the militaries...the colombians have responded well to training and when backed up have shown they will stand...the us will not let them down...

the us most likely has several hundred terror targets being accessed worldwide at any one moment....everyone is in place and getting more so everyday....the info melds with everything that comes in and shows ever more brilliantly how it is all interlinked....targets are chosen as the become ripe and iniciated...reyes time was up and it went to <go>, now they are on to the next one....but for South America now, business as usual...its a car crash, they haul off the bodies so everyone scavanges waht they can before someone else does...

p out


.PS...I am going to guess that if Chavez decides to go ...there will be a palce coup with an announcement that the leader has fallen...and the show is over...either before it starts or shortly after...

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at one time Colombia acted as a strategic barrier to the Russians to the spread of communism and all kinds of other things from South America. Mostly protecting the Panama canal. Now the States needs South America's resources. Bush's statement of support of Colombia today, was followed in the same breath by urging congress to pass the free trade agreement. What does one have to do with the other?

Do we fill in the Daren gap after all these years?

That gap has a personal meaning to me. My grandfather started in Alaska on what was envisioned to be the Pan American Highway when he was a kid, and died the owner of a construction company in Arizona that was working on one of the last North American links. An American free trade zone is not such a new idea; but is it a good idea?

at one time Colombia acted as a strategic barrier to the Russians to the spread of communism and all kinds of other things from South America. Mostly protecting the Panama canal. Now the States needs South America's resources. Bush's statement of support of Colombia today, was followed in the same breath by urging congress to pass the free trade agreement. What does one have to do with the other?

Do we fill in the Darién Gap after all these years?

That gap has a personal meaning to me. My grandfather started in Alaska on what was envisioned to be the Pan American Highway when he was a kid, and died the owner of a construction company in Arizona that was working on one of the last North American links. An American free trade zone is not such a new idea. is it a good idea?

On the subject of whether or On the subject of whether or not an American free trade area is a good idea I'd have to conclude that it is not. Not for the Mexico as it would simply turn into a bastion of cheap labor for the US (if it is possible to deepen the current situation) and not for the US middle-class that would certainly lose more factory jobs. With regards to the feasibility of such a proposal, do y'all think it could go through? The current political climate in the US seems to be quite opposed to the idea, both sides of the aisle.not a free trade

well, CHAVEZ isn't letting go on this....and with words like "war crimes" and "genocidal" he is pushing it along...I was thinking back when he bought the license to manufacture ak-47's in Venezuela in 5 factories he would build, from the russians...that it was too much money to just rattle the saber with...and know it the last day I was pondering if he has made up his mind to start his "bolivarian" revolution he has been declaring....maybe less to do with Colombia other than the knock on the door that starts it and gives him the "reason" and fans the flames out of control...I think he would like to do it before Castro dies...that might be his only hurry...


P out

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Condi Rice will be in Chile too, not so long after US secretary of defense Gates left. Coincidence?

just my view on free trade agreements. For Chile at least has been very good business, See the figures:

During 2005, Chile exported 6531 million dollars to USA versus 4722,6 millions on import, 1809 millions superavit to Chile
2895 millions dollars in industrial goods; 2481,7 millions in mining and 821.4 millions in agrículture. All those items has added value and has helping to create and develop good technology specially in cooper mining and agriculture.

There are stings attached for long term interest of the US such as the compromise to defend patents, intelectual property, fight against piracy and even modify in deep the legal system so Chile is giving long term commitments in trade of the dollars balance in excess (almost nothing for US figures)

The argument of "they rob American working posts in benefit off starving salaries in LA" is an economic nonsense, completely nonsense because having cheaper salaries this will be paid in any way, in the global world is impossible to build fences of protectionisms for long time, otherwise the starving salaries are just market salaries, there are many people willing to work for this money, this cost disregard many realities as the cheaper cost of living in Latin America and the lower of aceptable standard to people. Is just demagogy, not economic sense.

The reality is that american salaries in manufacture are not competitive anymore and with or without treaties those working post are condemned, the free tratde agreements just sincere this reality and take the oportunity to negotiate some strategic advantages in the long term.

American economy is everyday more dependient on intelectual property and every day more easy to copy, just see the music and entertaining industry, just imagine what would happen if many LA countries simply refuses to pay for intelectual property such as patents, industrial patented process, software and entertaining or, worse, if they agree in words but let it copy in facts. That is what FTA aimed to ensure for USA