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What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Anything at all (keep it clean) goes here that does not fit in to any of the other forums.

Moderator: eeuunikkeiexpat

Your Expection for the Chilean Peso rate through July 2008

550
2
8%
540
4
17%
530
4
17%
520
3
13%
510
1
4%
500
3
13%
490
2
8%
480
1
4%
475
3
13%
450
0
No votes
440
0
No votes
430
0
No votes
420
0
No votes
410
0
No votes
400
0
No votes
390
0
No votes
380
0
No votes
350
0
No votes
300
0
No votes
1 to 1
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 23

Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby eeuunikkeiexpat on Thu Apr 10, 2008 1:55 am

Name what fundamental factors will strengthen the dollar significantly.

The US is bleeding massive red ink. The banking and financial sector is awash in manufactured dollars to save the "system". Recession is a done deal. Stagflation is evident and also a probable done deal.

There are rumors that an Obama win would result in a bounce. Even then, by how much and what happens after the euphoria ends? The basic fundamentals haven't changed. So a bounce to maybe even 80 on the dollar index though the dollar was once at 120?

One of the best minds says 52 on the dollar index before the bleeding stops (the dollar is now at 72).

Anyone who is waiting around for a major bounce in the USD/CLP rate is not planning intelligently.

Plan for the worse and hope for the best. That hope might not be investing in the future of the USD.

NIA. DYODD.
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Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby Vicki and Greg Lansen on Thu Apr 10, 2008 5:46 am

I'm interested in what effects on the dollar everyone thinks each candidate might create.... US - CLP

Clinton =
Obama =
McCain =
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Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby RWS on Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:30 am

No numbers, but, for reasons already given, I think nearly inevitable that the value of the dollar will continue to drop in real terms regardless of who puts his hand on the Bible next January 20th. Whether that proves also to be a drop relative to any other currency will, of course, depend upon the factors afflicting that other currency.
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Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby jalundberg on Fri Apr 11, 2008 10:46 am

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/conve ... amt=1&t=1d

I couldn't get the graph to copy over to this text box; but check out the movement on the Dollar-Peso rate starting at noon today. Anyone know what caused that jump?
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Central Bank of Chile intervenes (Argentina here we come!!)

Postby eeuunikkeiexpat on Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:17 am

http://www.economiaynegocios.cl/noticia ... p?id=45226

Expect inflation to get worse in Chile.
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Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby otravers on Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:24 am

In other news, Bloomberg on the drought:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... zSmNhAJMug
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Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby Vicki and Greg Lansen on Fri Apr 11, 2008 4:44 pm

Got my winter taters and onions, box milk, sugar, salt and flour today. Wish I'd dried more fruit and gotten more canned goods. Gas is astronomical down here. I won't get rickets due to good apple and dried fruit supplies, but will miss beer supplies if things get tough. that's what really sucks. I guess I can borrow the neighbors oxen and make a trip to Argentina for a few cases of beer and cigs.

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Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby zulu789 on Fri Apr 11, 2008 4:56 pm

jalundberg wrote:http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=USD&to=CLP&amt=1&t=1d

I couldn't get the graph to copy over to this text box; but check out the movement on the Dollar-Peso rate starting at noon today. Anyone know what caused that jump?


Government announces that is going to "buy" 8 billion dollars from now until the end of the year ,trying to increase the valueof the dollar and benefit the exporters .

This is going to be a temporary relief, and they (Banco Central) does not expect the dollar to reach more than $cl 500 by the end of the year....

We are on a highway to hell , this is going to generate more inflation,based in the high price of the dollar now...more pesos chilenos per dollar to buy imported things... :D :D :D
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Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby juan on Fri Apr 11, 2008 6:52 pm

The Chilean peso party is now to commence. With the Central Bank of Chile launching an intervention program so naive and small, no doubt lines of credit will be available for rookie forex trader in each of the major investment banks and brokerage houses in NYC and London. Wait to see the Chilean peso rebound to up to $470, and then the free fall to the $400 level by the end of 2008. Next year, you will see the $350-$380 level.

Central Bank of Chile yielded to political and exporters pressures. 8 billion dollars is the total program; don't they know that amount is what the market trades in a week of two? Besides, political pressures will end up in inflation coming to the top and beyond the top of the objetive of the Central Bank. We will see interest rate go up to 7%-8% before Chile's economy experiences any contraction.

Copper prices, going over US$4 per pound in the next few weeks, cellullose, gold, molybden, fish and other commidities will make the trick, together with oil going back to the US$80/dollar barrel level.

China, India, Russia, Estern Europe, are doing the trick. It is their economies that have been and will continue to pull the Chilean peso, to levels not seen since 1997.

Get out of the dollar, get into the peso, and make 7% risk free interest in the bank at the corner in Santiago. You will be handsomely rewarded for not less than a couple of years from now.

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Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby admin on Fri Apr 11, 2008 9:52 pm

The guys that are getting the real deals are our clients that are buying properties listed in U.S. dollars. Most of the sellers seem to have put up their properties in dollars before the serious drop, and not really raised their prices to match. There are not a lot around, but a few.
Legal, Relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile. Free Consultation.
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Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby RWS on Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:04 pm

I'm not certain that I've followed juan's reasoning well, but I really don't see petroleum sinking to a permanent level of about US$80 a barrel or any other industrially important material falling significantly, either, unless a worldwide economic depression sets in. Of course, I've been wrong before.

And nothing's "risk-free" in this world.
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Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby longjonsilver on Mon Apr 14, 2008 8:09 am

this was from a financial website i frequent:

Chile Thirsts for Rain as Goats Drop, Mines Face Power Cuts
By Sebastian Boyd

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- The reservoir at the Laja dam south of Santiago gauges Chile's predicament: It has been less than half full since August.

Chile is in the grip of the most damaging drought in a century. The water shortage is reducing output at hydroelectric dams, pushing up energy prices and forcing the government to consider restricting power supplies to mines and factories. Subsistence farmers' crops and livestock are dying.

``This year we've had very, very poor rains,'' said Julia Toro, 71, who has 130 goats, horses and sheep on her mountainside farm in central Chile. More than 50 of her animals died in the past six months.

The weather phenomenon known as La Nina exacerbated dry conditions, fueling the drought. Last year's rainfall was already below normal when La Nina, a drop in Pacific Ocean water temperatures that reduces precipitation, was detected in September, according to the Chilean Meteorological Service.

``It's like an earthquake in disguise,'' Alfredo Ovalle, head of Chile's Chamber of Production and Commerce, said to reporters after meeting with Agriculture Minister Marigen Horkohl in February. ``It affects the whole economy.''

This La Nina is the most intense in more than half a century, according to meteorologists at the University of Chile in Santiago. Since August, northern Chile has received no measurable rain. Just 14 millimeters (0.55 inch) has fallen in Santiago, far below the average of 53 millimeters, according to the meteorological service.

`Worst Situation'

``There's more industrial activity, there's more agriculture, the population has grown and the temperatures are very high,'' said Rodrigo Weisner, the administrator for water at the Ministry of Public Works, in the rural town of San Pedro. ``We've got the worst situation in 100 years.''

Much of the mining industry in Chile, the world's biggest copper exporter, depends on hydroelectric power. In central and southern Chile, where Codelco, Antofagasta Plc, Anglo American Plc and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. all have mines, 45 to 70 percent of the electricity comes from water turbines.


bloomberg dot com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ayzSmNhAJMug&refer=home

i dont see the prices of most commodities falling all that much - especially oil. with the growth of the bric countries - and the growing trade between them any recession or depression in the states and europe as a result of the credit crunch will not affect the prices of commodities - we have seen this recession talk in the 70's and commodities still kept rising - giving rise to the word "stagflation". i see copper prices rising above 4$ given a breakout and continuing onward and upward - especially if the dollar falls further. as far as the peso, lowered production of copper due to lack of rainfall will be offset by higher copper prices.
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Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby RWS on Mon Apr 14, 2008 10:10 am

"Bric countries", jon?
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Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby eeuunikkeiexpat on Mon Apr 14, 2008 10:27 am

(B)razil(R)ussia(I)ndia(C)hina
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Re: What will 2008 Bring PART II ( Chile Peso Exchange Rate )?

Postby RWS on Mon Apr 14, 2008 12:33 pm

Thanks, EE.UU. I've always been aware that my knowledge is limited, but the plethora of acronyms and other abbreviations continues to astound me.

Charles, I renew my request that we have a "sticky" or some other permanent reference in which we could put all these terms. I'm nearly certain that I'm not the only AllChilean or visitor confounded by "BRIC" or "YMMV" or any of scores of others. (Thanks to EE.UU., I do now know what those mean.)
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