Chile Forum

admin wrote:A complete overhaul of the election system seems a must. Democracy would be a nice start. Likely at a constitutional level (dang, who would of thought of that).

Tom Cash wrote:News From the Lunatic Fringe

Tom Cash
May 28, 2008

We are close to the half way point of 2008 and the situation reeks of a bad outcome. The spin improves daily whilst the emerging facts become worse and worse and continue to portend a complete disaster.

Bill Buckler, a great newsletter writer (the best out there by a country mile) makes the point that it is a new era of isolationism for America. Not because America has retreated from the world, but because the rest of the world has finally washed its hands and retreated from America.

A declaration was issued in Peru in mid May by representatives of 60 nations including Europe and China promising to act with urgency to address the rising cost of food staples. This was completely unreported in the U.S. press most of whom were unaware that it was happening. The U.S. was not invited. The U.S. is not important enough to be invited anymore.

The world is fracturing into spheres of influence. Russia, France and Germany jig around each other for control of Europe. China, Japan and India vie for control of Asia. Brazil is gradually exerting itself as the strong man of S. America. Huge oil reserves, a world class weapons industry and a fifty years old sophisticated ethanol program ensures that the most populous country in the region is assuming a dominant role. The U.S. still has control of North America.

The predictions made just a few years ago that the U.S. of A. would cease to be the pre-eminent power in the world within our lifetimes seemed almost unbelievable. Now it has happened, and at a speed that even I find a trifle bewildering. I moved here, amongst other reasons, with my family to chronicle the collapse of the Great Empire, and it happened so fast I almost missed it.

Little is understood in America. Not just by the man in the street who is still almost completely unaware that anything is wrong, but the media, politicians, presidential candidates... none have a clue what is happening. The most enlightened believe that we may have a recession, or that we are already in one. They don't really understand the ramifications of even that dull insight, but they are aware that something is not quite right.

But hey, this is America right? Not really, this was America. What presents on a daily basis is a pale shadow of its former self. Flag waving, hand on heart, liquored up bozos have replaced true patriots. Legal interpretations by public servant lawyers have replaced the Constitution. The sanctity of individual freedom and the supremacy of ideas have given way to the anti-intellect of the mass media and the worship of 15 minutes of fame. Brittany Spears rules okay. The free man has abdicated in favour of the free lunch.

Americans remember who they once were in a vague and distant sort of a way. But they only remember the pictures, the ideas that underpinned the pictures are long gone. They see the glory but not the substance, they see the success, but fail to see the striving and courage, both physical and intellectual, that created that success.

The general consensus is that America will rally round once again. America has had problems before... remember the thirties, the seventies? America recovered, America always recovers. America can innovate its way out of any crisis with its free-wheeling, frontier brand of capitalism. It was not the collapse of Bear Stearns that put the lie to that belief, it was the manner of the Fed's role in the collapse that told the real story. The free market capitalism that made the U.S.A. great is officially dead. The Politburo of the U.S.S.A. now calls the shots.

There is a belief that 'the powers that be' (in America) will bring the great ship back on an even keel again. That is stated as though someone is actually in control of all this and that with a quick press of the right switch all can be made well again. It has to be understood that no one is in control of this. The denouement of this situation is the end of the American dream. It is the end of America as a world power. No one gains, well no one in America.

There is more than enough data out there to rebut any possible suggestion that America will be able to recover from her current circumstances. She can't and she won't. America is an enfeebled giant who made, and is still making, the mistake of needlessly annoying a number of major players around the world. America's problems are entirely self-inflicted, but that may not stop her from lashing out in an indulgent frenzy of pointless aggression. Hopefully Bush will depart without making matters any worse than they already are.

President Obama will pull the troops out of Iraq as one of his first actions... just after he sacks Ben Bernanke. He has no choice. It will also be a very easy and politically astute move that will mollify many Americans. More importantly it will mollify many of those foreign gentlemen (particularly Putin) who are keenly awaiting the chance to teach America a lesson at the appropriate moment. Remember how the U.S.A. arrogantly spurned Russia's offer of cooperation in return for assistance after the U.S.S.R. broke up?

It is fortunate that America will have a new president who is personable and who will clearly symbolise the end of an era. Obama will not be able to do a damn thing to help America out of its problems, America is beyond help. He can though, hopefully, diminish the strong desire by the rest of the world to put the boot in.

President George W. Bush is on psychiatric drugs. Nothing else could explain the disintegration of the basically decent, intelligent and articulate man that he was prior to 9/11, to the unpredictable, incoherent dribbler that he has become since. The sooner he is out of the picture the safer America will be... safer from external aggression that is, not from internal circumstances; they are set in stone.

Today comes news of a move to ban speculation in commodities including oil! This is madness and would exacerbate the long term increasing price trend as well as cause shortages. As it is also coming right on the point where, barring an unlikely drop in supply, oil is overdue for a large correction back to the $100- area it may be construed by some that the fall in price was caused by talk of a ban on speculation. That will only encourage further government meddling.

When will they ever learn? It's okay, that was a purely rhetorical question! Speculators keep the price of a product lower than it would normally be by smoothing out the up and down vagaries of the market. Ban speculation and you really will start to see some price fireworks. Watch the price of food take off.

The military will still be active of course, though I think it highly unlikely that Iran will be the target. Where will the troops, oil or money come from, not to mention the morale? The next likely target of the U.S. military will be Mexico. Mexico is close, Mexico has oil which is woefully under-explored and developed, and Mexico also provides an almost legitimate casus belli. Mexico is on its way to being the first major country, failed state in the twenty-first century.

With a standing military of only around 130,000 plus reservists Mexico still holds the edge over the drug cartels in terms of number of men under arms, but they are not as well armed, nor are they as disciplined. The cartels operate with impunity throughout the country and are quickly expanding their influence south of the border into Guatemala and Honduras.

Many 'illegal immigrants' from Mexico into the U.S. are, in reality, refugees from a fast disintegrating political and social situation. If that situation deteriorates further then U.S. military intervention is not only possible but highly likely. Any sudden deterioration of the situation would see millions more Mexicans crossing the border in a matter of weeks. That would overwhelm the U.S. economy which is already on its knees. And don't forget the oil. America's new isolation ensures that the oil situation is about to get a lot worse. The U.S. military is powerless without oil. The whole war edifice has been constructed on the need for vast quantities of oil.

An occupation of Mexico would have great appeal for the military. R&R could be held back home and it would quickly take the focus off the disaster of having to withdraw from a humbling experience in Iraq. It would also more accord with the real capabilities of the war weary soldiers and the worn down machines of war.

U.S. dollars are losing appeal. China is now owed one hundred billion dollars by U.S. companies who have failed to pay. That is on top of the fact that those who do pay are paying with a currency that is falling in value rapidly. America is no longer a desirable customer. Who will be there to continue to sell America oil? Best to take advantage of a failing state right across the border and absorb a new supplier, albeit an unwilling one. The uproar can be cloaked in the cause of saving Mexico's democracy. This time it will be almost believable.

May 26, 2008
Tom Cash
email: tomcashgold@yahoo.com